(Economic Observation) China's housing prices bid farewell to the general rise in the housing market, or continue to focus on core cities

　　China News Service, Beijing, January 15 (Reporter Pang Wuji) Since 2017, China’s large and medium-sized cities have no longer seen a pattern of general housing price increases for many years. The housing market in many places has mixed ups and downs. The well-known "hot spot rotation" in the stock market "Effects have also begun to appear in the real estate market.

Data map: Aerial photography of a real estate in Hexi, Nanjing.

(Image and text irrelevant) Photo by China News Agency reporter Yang Bo

　　The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced on the 15th the housing price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China in 2020.

Compared with the same period in 2019, in December 2020, the average increase in the index of new and second-hand housing prices in 70 cities was 3.7% and 2.1%, both at historical lows in recent years.

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that the year-on-year growth of new homes in 70 cities has narrowed for six consecutive months, while the growth of second-hand housing has also narrowed compared with the previous month, indicating that the overall price increase is controllable.

　　Zhao Jinxin, a macro analyst at the China Minbank Think Tank, pointed out that in December 2020, the property market in many places is still in a low consolidation stage. The housing prices in most cities are still in a marginal range, but the upward momentum is obviously insufficient. The market has not overheated or overcooled. Stable operation, with prices rising slightly.

　　Throughout the year, under the influence of the epidemic and strict regulation, the total sales of commercial housing in China is still expected to hit a record high.

However, Zhao Jinxin found that the housing price structure is undergoing obvious changes: from the general general rise in the past and the partial skyrocketing, to the current hot spot rotation, rising and falling.

　　The myth of "housing prices only rise but not fall" is further broken.

Official data show that in December 2020, house prices in Taiyuan, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Anqing and other places fell slightly year-on-year.

If the time dimension is lengthened, compared with the historical highest point of housing prices, some cities have already seen a deeper price adjustment.

According to a report by the Housing Big Data Project Group of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Financial Strategy Research Institute, Langfang's housing prices fell 46.9% from the highest point in April 2017, and Qingdao and Tianjin also fell by more than 20% from the historical peak.

　　While the ups and downs are diverging, the housing market continues to focus on core cities.

In 2020, housing prices in four first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, will “firm”.

In December 2020, new homes and second-hand homes in the first-tier and four-cities increased by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively from the previous month, and both increased slightly by 0.1%.

　　Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, believes that the strong housing prices in first-tier cities have driven up the end of the year in 70 large and medium-sized cities.

According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in four first-tier cities in December increased by more than 20% from the previous month.

Especially in Shanghai, in December, the second-hand residential transaction volume in Shanghai increased by 20.3% month-on-month and 95% year-on-year. The absolute level of monthly transactions was the highest since 2017.

　　Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that under the influence of the epidemic, the demand for housing in school districts in first-tier cities has increased significantly. This is an important factor driving up the housing market and second-hand housing prices. Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing are mostly driven by school district housing at the end of the year. , A large number of people studying abroad returned, increasing market demand.

　　Except for first-tier cities, housing prices in some cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are relatively concentrated.

In December last year, both new and second-hand housing "leaded" the country’s cities in Yangzhou.

In addition, the price increase of new and second-hand houses in Hefei in the same region also ranked first.

　　Xu Xiaole believes that since the second half of 2020, in the context of the return of monetary policy to neutrality and the continuous deepening of "one city, one policy", the increase in housing prices in cities across the country has gradually narrowed, but some parts are still facing upward pressure.

　　According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the cities with high market prosperity indexes in the first week of 2021 are mainly located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The prosperity indexes of Shanghai and Hefei are relatively high, and the pressure of rising housing prices in the later period is relatively high.

Take Shanghai as an example. In the first 13 days of January 2021, the transaction volume of Lianjia second-hand housing increased by 42% compared with the same period in December last year. The percentage of price increase in the price adjustment of Shanghai second-hand housing owners rose to 67%, an increase of 12 from the level in December last year. percentage point.

　　Zhao Jinxin said that looking forward to 2021, the real estate industry affects investment and consumption, and is related to people's livelihood and development. Its economic ballast and stabilizer role is undeniable.

Under the guidance of the long-term mechanism, the real estate industry will develop steadily, the sales of commercial housing are likely to remain high, and development investment will maintain steady growth.

Under the guidance of "housing to live without speculation, and implementing policies according to the city", it is expected that the overall house price growth rate across the country will remain low, continuing the trend of more ups and downs and regional sector rotation.

However, the market in cities of different magnitudes will be clearly differentiated. Among them, the housing prices of core first- and second-tier cities are more prominent under the support of demand and asset allocation advantages, so their regulation will become tighter, stricter, and more refined.

(Finish)