August 70 city housing prices released:
New houses in Huizhou, Guangzhou second-hand houses lead the country
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 14 showed that the real estate market in 70 large and medium-sized cities was generally stable, with prices rising slightly.
Among them, the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, which was an increase.
Second-hand housing in 70 cities rose by 0.3% month-on-month, and the growth rate remained flat.
The cities leading the country's second-hand housing market for new homes in August are all in the Greater Bay Area.
Among them, Huizhou led the country's new home market with a month-on-month increase of 1.9%, and Guangzhou led the country's second-hand housing market with a month-on-month increase of 1.7%. This is also the second consecutive month that Guangzhou has ranked first in the 70 cities in second-hand housing growth.
From the perspective of the industry, after Shenzhen introduced its regulatory policies in July, some of its demand has shifted to cities such as Huizhou and Guangzhou, which has led to an accelerated upward trend in housing prices in these cities driven by investment demand.
Regarding the future market performance of the Greater Bay Area, industry insiders pointed out that as housing prices accelerate, a new round of regulatory policies is expected to be upgraded.
But Xiaoyangchun is expected to continue, and housing prices in the Greater Bay Area may still rise.
Shenzhen demand overflows, Huizhou new house prices lead the country
From the perspective of the new housing market, the sales price of newly-built commercial housing in 4 first-tier cities increased by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month.
Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.9% and 0.5% respectively; the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in 31 second-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; 35 third-tier cities The sales price of new commercial residential buildings rose by 1.0% month-on-month, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
According to calculations, in August, the price index of newly-built commercial housing in 70 cities across the country increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year.
Compared with the data in July, the month-on-month increase slightly expanded, while the year-on-year increase slightly narrowed.
Among them, the first, second, and third-tier cities' housing prices increased by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.6% respectively.
However, among the 70 cities, the number of cities where housing prices have fallen has increased from 6 in July to 9 in August.
"The month-on-month increase in August has expanded, which has something to do with the city structure. In some cities, housing prices are still rising, especially in cities with good market transactions, recovery and warming up, leading to a rebound of such data." E-House Think Tank Center Research Director Yan Yuejin said that the focus of this round of regulation lies in second-tier cities, and that the policy is slightly tightened, which will bring about a cooling of housing prices.
Specifically, in the new housing market, 10 cities including Huizhou, Yinchuan, Jinzhou, Tangshan, Wenzhou, Jining, Shenyang, Xi’an, Wuxi, and Jinhua led the nation’s increase in housing prices, up 1.9%, 1.8%, 1.4%, and 1.3 respectively. %, 1.3%, 1.2%, 1.1%, 1.1%, 1.1%, 1.1%.
From a year-on-year perspective, Yinchuan new houses led the country, up 17.6% year-on-year.
Why has Huizhou become the leading city in the national new housing market?
In Yan Yuejin's view, the fastest month-on-month increase in new housing in Huizhou may be related to Shenzhen's regulatory policies.
"With the high housing prices in Shenzhen and the upgrading of regulation, it is not ruled out that some housing demand is entering the Huizhou market. In particular, the housing prices in Huizhou itself are relatively cheap, and the spillover of housing demand in Shenzhen will naturally drive the increase in housing prices in Huizhou."
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, also said, “After Shenzhen introduced its regulatory policies in July, some demand has shifted to cities such as Huizhou and Guangzhou, which has led to an accelerated upward rise in housing prices in these cities driven by investment demand.”
In addition, the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates of new houses in Yinchuan ranked second and first in the country.
"From the perspective of year-on-year growth, Yinchuan's housing prices have risen the most, and it still needs to be actively controlled. Recently, many cities across the country have participated in the real estate symposium of the central government and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and Yinchuan is also among them. It does not rule out that such cities will also introduce control in the future Policies to stabilize housing prices and market expectations.” Yan Yuejin believes.
Guangzhou second-hand housing leads the country for two consecutive months
From the perspective of the second-hand housing market, the sales price of second-hand housing in 4 first-tier cities increased by 1.0% month-on-month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose by 0.7%, 0.8%, 1.7%, and 1.1% respectively; the sales price of second-hand housing in 31 second-tier cities rose by 0.4% month-on-month, and the increase was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month.
The sales price of second-hand housing in 35 third-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
Overall, in August, the sales price index of second-hand housing in 70 cities across the country rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year.
The month-on-month increase was generally flat, and the year-on-year increase has expanded.
"From the data point of view, the growth rate of second-hand housing in second-tier cities has not expanded. This is related to this round of regulation and control around second-tier cities. In particular, local governments have tightened control over the order of real estate transactions, which has made market expectations more stable and housing prices will trend more. Stable. Follow-up for first-tier cities, etc., we must also guard against risks such as price rebounds." Yan Yuejin said.
Judging from the quarter-on-quarter data of second-hand housing, Guangzhou has become the city with the largest increase, and the price increase of second-hand housing has ranked first for two consecutive months.
"Affected by Shenzhen's regulatory policies, part of the demand for home purchases has indeed accelerated to enter the Guangzhou market, and there are some panic transactions. Therefore, for Guangzhou, follow-up adjustments are needed to further stabilize market expectations." Yan Yuejin said.
Follow-up 1
Gold, nine and silver ten property market continues to rise?
Since the second half of the year, the real estate market regulation has not been relaxed, and the signals have been tightening.
On July 24, Vice Premier Han Zheng of the State Council held a real estate work symposium and clearly stated that it is necessary to firmly adhere to the positioning of "houses are used for living, not for speculation", and insist on not using real estate as a short-term economic stimulus. 10 Persons in charge of the people’s governments of three cities participated in the symposium; on August 20, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the central bank’s key real estate enterprises symposium, 12 real estate companies participated. The meeting pointed out that in order to further implement the real estate long-term mechanism and implement the real estate financial prudential management system, Enhance the marketization, regularization and transparency of financing for real estate enterprises. The People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with relevant departments, formulated the rules for fund monitoring and financing management of key real estate enterprises on the basis of extensive consultations in the early stage; August 26 The Ministry of Construction held some urban real estate work conferences in Beijing to analyze the current real estate market situation, study and implement the main responsibilities of the city, and steadily implement the work related to the long-term real estate mechanism.
From a local perspective, according to Zhang Dawei's statistics, 15 cities have tightened their policies in the second half of the year, especially as of August.
So, why did the real estate market price rise slightly in August?
"At present, the impact of these different regulatory policies has not yet been shown in August, and the market has not fully turned. It is expected that the market will continue to rise during the'Golden Nineth and Silver Tenth' period." Zhang Dawei said.
In Yan Yuejin's view, the current real estate market has entered the traditional stage of gold, nine and silver, and price reductions are the main theme.
Judging from the subsequent housing price index, it cannot be ruled out that the increase will continue to narrow.
However, this year's real estate projects in various regions are generally affected by pre-sale certificates, and the entry of some high-end projects into the market will objectively drive the average transaction price of the city to rise.
However, he also said that from the follow-up market performance, the second-hand housing market will not rise too quickly.
Especially in this year's Golden, Nine, and Silver 10 phases, the supply of new houses in various regions is relatively large, which will objectively affect the sale of second-hand houses, and the second-hand house market is expected to maintain price stability.
Follow-up 2
How will housing prices in the Greater Bay Area go in the future?
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics on September 14, the housing prices in the Greater Bay Area have been striking.
Among them, the price of new houses in Huizhou led the country with an increase of 1.9%.
From the perspective of the second-hand housing market, Guangzhou has become the city with the largest increase, and Guangzhou has now ranked first in the price increase of second-hand housing for two consecutive months, while second-hand housing in Shenzhen ranked fourth in the country with a 1.1% increase.
“House prices in cities such as Huizhou for newly built houses and Guangzhou and Shenzhen for second-hand houses are still rising significantly. The core reason is that the economic recovery of the Greater Bay Area is relatively good, the investment attributes are relatively high, and the implementation of local regulatory policies has not been suppressed. The housing market is heating up." Zhang Dawei said that overall, with the acceleration of housing prices, the new round of regulatory policies is expected to be upgraded.
But Xiaoyangchun is expected to continue, and housing prices in the Greater Bay Area may still rise.
In Yan Yuejin's view, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is a hot spot in the market, and the relatively large price increase indicates strong market demand.
Especially in the post-epidemic era, migrants will accelerate their entry into such cities, which objectively supports the faster development of the property market in such cities.
The subsequent real estate transaction market is still active, and regulatory policies need to control the transaction order, including the recent rise in housing prices in Guangzhou and Huizhou that also need to be regulated.
Beijing News reporter Hou Runfang