Crude oil futures trading prices were "negative" overnight, can you save money by going to gas now?
"If China's $ 40 / barrel 'floor price' policy remains unchanged, it will have no impact on ordinary people's use of oil." Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute and Distinguished Professor of "Yangtze River Scholars" at the School of Management, Xiamen University, accepted the Science and Technology Daily The reporter said in an interview.
In other words, even if the WTI price of light crude oil futures in May in the United States has plummeted to -37 USD / barrel, it has not had much impact on ordinary people in China, and going to a gas station to refuel is basically not lower than the price of the previous few days.
"Floor price" limits China's price reduction space
WTI crude oil is a light crude oil from West Texas, United States. This crude oil futures contract has good liquidity and high price transparency, and is one of the three major benchmark prices in the world crude oil market.
At present, the main reason why China's oil prices are not affected is that there are "ceiling prices" and "floor prices" in the product oil price adjustment mechanism.
According to the current domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, refined oil prices refer to fluctuations in international crude oil prices. When the international crude oil price linked to domestic refined oil prices is higher than US $ 130 / barrel, the highest retail price of gasoline and diesel in China will not be raised or less; when it is lower than US $ 40 / barrel, the maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel will not be reduced. When the international oil price runs between 40-130 US dollars / barrel, the domestic refined oil price mechanism is adjusted normally, following the fluctuations in international oil prices. The maximum retail price of domestic gasoline and diesel is adjusted every 10 working days.
Recently, due to various factors such as the epidemic, international oil prices have been declining all the time. The average price of crude oil in the international cycle that China has referenced has been under the red line of $ 40 per barrel. As early as March 17 of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it had touched the "floor price" (the average price of nearly 10 working days). The domestic refined oil price was greatly reduced to the level corresponding to the international oil price of 40 US dollars, less than 40 US dollars. Some are no longer lowered. Today, the "floor price" continues, and China's oil price "5 yuan era" will continue.
So why set upper and lower limits?
At the previous press conference, Peng Shaozong, Deputy Director of the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that setting the upper and lower limits is mainly to consider that China is both a large oil importing and consuming country and a large oil producing country. influences. If it is too high, it will increase the burden on the oil industry and consumers, which will affect the stable operation of the national economy; if it is too low, it will affect the normal development of the domestic crude oil mining industry, weakening the self-sufficiency, and leading to a further increase in external dependence, which is not conducive to ensuring domestic energy security.
The long-term impact at home and abroad remains to be seen
Crude oil futures trading prices were "negative" overnight, which made people really "live long".
Negative oil prices mean that the cost of transporting oil to a refinery or storage has exceeded the value of the oil itself. Going to refuel, do you still have to pay for the gas station? This situation obviously does not exist, whether in China with "floor price" or in other countries that do not have "floor price".
Because this is the futures price, not the spot price.
"This is a short-term, even instantaneous phenomenon, and it is largely a technical operation of time trade-offs in futures trading in the context of the fierce oil price war between major oil countries. And in most cases, these operations It is often hedging in nature, and it is not large enough in quantity to have a significant impact. Of course, we must continue to pay attention to the market trend in the later period. .
Some people in the industry pointed out that the decline in futures prices is still a distance away from the spot price. After all, the leverage of futures and its magnification are stronger. Of course, the extreme shrinkage of the oil demand side at this stage will indeed reflect the market price at maturity.
So, what impact will this incident have on China's enterprises, markets and other countries?
Lin Boqiang said that it is good for downstream companies and factories involving petroleum raw materials, because the price of the purchase price has been reduced. However, the selling price of terminal products may also decline accordingly, and the degree of benefit is difficult to predict; furthermore, this benefit depends largely on how low the crude oil price is and how long the low price lasts. Considering the company's own oil storage capacity, if it is a low price in the short term, the benefit space will be limited. For oil companies, oil companies with large upstream business volume suffer more damage, while those with large midstream and downstream business volume are relatively better. Of course, this is related to the length of time for low oil prices.
"China is a major oil importing and consuming country, and the overall reduction in international oil prices should benefit our country as a whole, and damage the major oil exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia." Lin Boqiang said.
In Luo Zhongwei's view, the far-reaching impact of this incident still needs to be calmly observed. "In addition to the impact of the global spread of the new coronavirus epidemic, it also involves the progress of the entire oil war in several major oil-producing countries. The impact of the results on the world economy and the economies of other countries needs further observation.