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Donald Trump, Charles Koch and Nikki Haley

Photo: [M] DER SPIEGEL; Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images; Wichita Eagle/Tribune News Service/Getty Images; Joe Raedle/Getty Images

An important note to start with: The last two paragraphs of this text are pure speculation. Things could turn out very differently, and they probably will. However, the causal chain spelled out below cannot be completely ruled out - because it is based on very well-documented facts.

The main characters in this speculative scenario are Donald Trump, former President of the USA, his internal party rival for the candidacy for this year's election, Nikki Haley, and the multi-billionaire Charles Koch, who became rich primarily from oil and gas (private wealth: over 50 billion dollars), one of the most powerful men in the USA.

According to a book about his empire ("Kochland") based on seven years of research, Koch and his brother began in the 1970s "to build up a network for influencing politics parallel to the business of Koch Industries and thus a system for "create political influence that is probably unique in US economic history." Koch founded lobbying organizations disguised as think tanks, such as the Cato Institute, and financed many others. He also created a massive donor network called Donors' Trust, which moves billions of dollars.

“Covert operations”

The Washington Post was able to attribute a total of $400 million in donations to Koch's influence network in the 2012 US election campaign alone, distributed across "a labyrinth of tax-exempt groups and limited liability companies" in order to conceal the true origin of the money. Such research is certainly risky: journalists like the New Yorker author Jane Mayer, who reported on the Kochs and their "covert operations," always had to expect that private investigators would then search their lives for possible compromising material.

Koch funded the Tea Party movement and the right-wing Freedom Caucus, and he runs his own supposed grassroots organization called Americans for Prosperity. For example, they sent paid protesters to the campaign rallies of unpleasant Republicans - such as those who refused to deny climate change. Many of them subsequently lost their re-election.

Huge amounts of money

Koch not only financed and influenced politics, but also significantly influenced the courts. For decades, his foundations and organizations have been inviting judges to travel to “training seminars” in which they are sworn to the radical market ideals to which Koch adheres.

During Barack Obama's second term, Koch's organizations spent huge sums that helped swing the Senate back into Republican hands in the midterm elections. Subsequently, the new majority leader Mitch McConnell used his power to block further Supreme Court appointments by Obama with a ruthless delay tactic.

The result is the right-wing “supermajority” (seven to three) in the US Supreme Court. McConnell later boasted that he had ensured that the Supreme Court struck down the federal right to legal abortions.

The expensive trips of the judges

The three Supreme Court appointees that Donald Trump appointed to the court were all selected with the help of the same man: a very conservative jurist named Leonard Leo. The donation-funded investigative portal ProPublica dedicated several investigative articles to him, one of them with the headline “The man behind the right-wing Supreme Court supermajority.” They show that Leo tried to influence the court's decisions with the help of funds from an "extensive network of non-transparent non-profit organizations."

Leo also “advised” Donald Trump on the selection of two new Supreme Court justices and one female judge. According to ProPublica, it's pretty clear in whose interests: "His donors include hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer, Texas real estate mogul Harlan Crow and the Koch family." Crow and Singer also like to invite top judges on expensive trips.

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas also traveled to the fundraising meetings of Koch's donor network, which such US billionaires help finance, as a star guest, so to speak. When the court drastically limited the power of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in a momentous decision - written by Thomas personally - the investigative portal The Intercept headlined: "How Charles Koch bought the Supreme Court's EPA decision."

Koch doesn't like Trump at all

And that brings us to Donald Trump. The Supreme Court will play a major role several times in its immediate future, as SPIEGEL correspondent Roland Nelles explained here a few weeks ago. Perhaps the most pressing question is whether courts in states like Colorado and Maine have the right to remove Trump from the primary ballots because of his role in attempted voter fraud and the events surrounding January 6, 2021. This decision actually has to be made by March 4th, because Republican primaries will take place in the two states mentioned on March 5th, “Super Tuesday”.

As is well known, Nikki Haley lost the first two primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, but after the election in New Hampshire she seemed so satisfied and confident of victory that it really pissed off Trump. The woman actually had the courage not to drop out of the competition.

This is particularly interesting given that Nikki Haley is the declared favorite of Charles Koch and his donor network. Koch never thought much of Trump and refused to make large donations to him. But he still made sure that the Trump administration often did what Koch wanted and didn't do what he didn't want. Trump, in turn, once called the Koch brothers (David Koch died in 2019) a “total joke.” This time, Koch and his network obviously want to prevent another Trump candidacy - even with a lot of money. How much exactly is once again unclear.

Who do judges owe more to?

Donald Trump believes - and says so publicly - that the conservative Supreme Court justices owe him a lot and that he can therefore rely on decisions in his favor. The US Supreme Court is currently heavily criticized for unpopular decisions such as the abolition of the general right to abortion, but also for perceived partisanship.

The court is also still intensively involved in declaring environmental regulations unconstitutional, in line with Koch's wishes. Koch doesn't care much about abortions - he's sometimes called a "secret Catholic," but he's not religious - but he's very interested in restrictions on his oil, gas, chemical and fertilizer businesses.

And now the speculation: Today's Supreme Court owes much more to Charles Koch and his rich friends than to Donald Trump, who in reality was only Koch's vicarious agent in filling the judgeships. Trump actually despises judges, while Koch has coddled them for decades. Both are of course very problematic in a democracy.

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By ruling that it was legal to remove Trump from the ballot, the court could turn the election campaign on its head - in favor of Nikki Haley. That would suddenly make the Supreme Court appear less partisan and much more supportive of the state - after all, many Democrats are also calling for such a decision. The prospect of such a decision would explain Haley's persistence and surprisingly good humor. And such a decision would undoubtedly be in Charles Koch's interest.

We'll know more by March 5th at the latest.