Worlds collide at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos.

The new Argentine President Javier Milei lives in one.

Aside from his rather crazy ramblings about socialism, the anarcho-capitalist likes to lecture his listeners on the subject of climate change.

»Milei is amused by climate change and people who want to “save the planet”, ... and sees “neo-Marxists” at work who have “won the media, universities and international organizations to their side”, writes our Davos- Correspondent Michael Brächer this week in SPIEGEL.

Nevertheless, there was some applause and selfies were taken after his speech.

Climate change doesn't exist, it's all just an invention of non-governmental organizations and government-related committees - populists like Milei live in this dream world.

But in the real world, even in Davos, the danger that man-made climate change poses to the global economy has now become clear.

On Wednesday, researchers presented the study by the World Economic Forum and the consulting firm Oliver Wyman, according to which there will be several million deaths due to the climate crisis in the coming decades.

In addition, serious illnesses are expected to increase and the costs for health systems continue to rise.

The reasons for this are rising temperatures and increasing extreme weather such as droughts, floods, storms, but also forest fires and rising sea levels.

The study is based on the intermediate climate scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In the scenario, temperatures will rise by more than three degrees Celsius by 2100, and current climate policy will continue at a relatively low level.

If that happens, according to the study, around 14 million people could die as a result of climate change by 2050.

More sick people would burden health systems with additional costs of $1.1 trillion.

Brazilian Environment Minister announces first resettlements

According to the study authors, the greatest risk comes from flooding.

By 2050, 8.5 million people affected could die directly or indirectly due to rivers overflowing their banks or storm surges on the coast.

This also includes people who subsequently contract infectious diseases or are no longer able to feed themselves due to crop damage.

Such consequences can already be observed in coastal regions of Bangladesh, but also in other Asian countries.

However, often only those who drowned due to storms or floods are counted, but the months-long consequences of these disasters are not precisely quantified.

Even in Germany, which as a rich industrial country should actually be well protected against floods, 180 people died in the Ahr Valley in 2021, and many are still unable to grow anything on the contaminated soil in their gardens and fields.

The most recent flood in January also showed how vulnerable German communities are.

In other countries, consequences are already being drawn.

Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva said in Davos that people in her country had to be resettled.

She pointed to areas in the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, where repeated flooding occurred last year, killing dozens of people.

»We have families there who were affected by floods three times in one year.

There’s no point in rebuilding the house in the same place or reopening the business.”

Other extreme weather events are also causing problems for people around the world.

The elderly and the sick are hit hard when weeks of heatwaves heat up their homes - this could cost 1.6 million lives alone, according to the WEF report.

Droughts also lead to illness and death when rivers become toxic streams due to evaporation or fertile soils turn into dusty sand where nothing can be grown.

People who live from agriculture or live in rural areas are particularly at risk.

The numbers are depressing.

What is important, however, is that leading economists in Davos circles have now recognized climate change as an economic problem.

The statements of climate deniers like Milei do not change this.

Business bosses have no interest in loss and damage.

In the end, citizens have to bear the rising health costs.

But they in turn invest or consume less.

In addition, workers are more likely to be absent if they get sick more often.

Not to mention supply chain problems when entire regions experience a disaster.

The coasts will lose

This is also confirmed by a study published on Thursday in the journal “Scientific Reports

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The authors assume there will be significant losses in gross domestic product in 79 European coastal regions by 2100.

To do this, they coupled economic models with the apocalyptic RCP8.5 scenario for sea level rise.

It shows the worst of all futures until 2100 and takes into account almost no climate protection, hardly any additional adaptation to the consequences and increasing emissions.

In this worst-case scenario, the EU and Great Britain would have a combined 1.26 percent lower GDP by the end of the century - compared to a world without climate change.

Some coastal regions, for example in Italy, could even lose more than 20 percent.

In Germany, on the other hand, according to the study, some domestic areas are gaining slightly because economic activities are shifting.

Experts believe that, despite some uncertainties, the study gives an impression of the damage and losses to come in Europe.

Finally, indirect losses such as “reduced income, interruptions in supply chains and rising prices” are also taken into account, explains coastal expert Rosanne Martyr-Koller from the Climate Analytics think tank, who was not involved in the study.

However, it is not helpful that the study assumes the worst case scenario of global warming, in which sea levels rise by several meters.

A middle scenario based on current developments and the countries' climate plans would have been more plausible, says Martyr-Koller.

Despite these uncertainties, both reports published this week show that the economy urgently needs to change and adapt to new conditions.

A wake-up call from science that is hopefully louder than the ranting words of populists.

If you like, we will inform you once a week about the most important things about the climate crisis - stories, research results and the latest developments on the biggest issue of our time.

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The topics of the week

How the extremes of winter weather come about: The vortex that came from the cold.


Cold in the USA, which sometimes felt like it was below minus 50 degrees Celsius, and slippery in Germany.

Is the onset of winter in both countries related?

Flood protection in Germany: Some dykes are several hundred years old. 


Delayed investment, lack of maintenance, those responsible despair of the authorities: many dykes in Germany no longer fulfill their protective function.

Some experts advocate relocating people.



Temperature record: 2023 is the warmest year on record


With a global temperature almost 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, last year was hotter than any in at least 173 years.

The seas also suffered from heat.

And something else is worrying.

The big climate forecast 2024 – a fateful year 


for climate policy. Some researchers are expecting a trend reversal in the CO₂ content of the atmosphere for the first time in 2024.

But there is also a risk of severe setbacks in terms of climate policy.

Stay confident

Yours, Susanne Götze,


science editor