The Japanese weather office and the US ocean authority NOAA agree: The weather phenomenon El Niño is imminent. Thus, it develops in about seven out of ten cases when the conditions are as they currently are. Even in the winter of 2018/2019 El Niño could occur in the northern hemisphere.
If the water heats up in the eastern and central Pacific, that is a clear sign of El Niño. Then, for example, there are droughts in Central and South America, South Africa, South Asia and Australia, and elsewhere flooding and tropical cyclones are threatening (see chart).
MIRROR ONLINE; Munich RE
Ordinary effects of El Niño
In the last week, the temperature in one of the key Pacific regions was 0.7 degrees above the long-term average, writes the NOAA. From a value of 0.5 degrees experts speak of an El Niño. However, the limit must be exceeded at least on a monthly basis, which is not yet the case.
Gigantic hot water volumes in the Pacific
In addition, El Niño's safety is assured only when experts assume that the temperature also remains elevated and the atmospheric air reacts to the warmer water. That too is not certain yet.
climate.gov
El Niño has the following effects: Normally, trade winds blow along the equator in the Pacific from east to west. They also push the water in that direction, flushing warm surface water to the region around Indonesia. At the same time, cold water from the depths of the ocean penetrates to the surface around South America.
When the winds on an El Niño slow down, the warm waters of East Asia slosh back. Within a few months, gigantic amounts of warm water are moving through the Pacific, coming to the surface in front of South America. The water gives off heat to the air.
Last El Niño raged in 2015 and 2016, leading to crop failures, forest fires and floods (read more here).