Closed airspace, risk of a "coup"... Is Moldova right to fear Russia?

Romain Rouillard 6:09 p.m., February 16, 2023

For several months now, Moldova has been living in permanent anguish, which the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has only reinforced.

This small republic wedged between Romania in the south and Ukraine in the north indeed fears a succession of massive attacks against them from Moscow.

Pro-Western President Maia Sandu even mentions a risk of a "coup" fomented by the Kremlin, relying on documents obtained by kyiv.

"The goal is to overthrow the constitutional order and replace legitimate power in Chisinau," she added.

Moldova, easy prey for Moscow

Proof of the tense atmosphere that is gradually gaining Chisinau, the country's airspace was closed for a few moments on Tuesday after a Russian missile flew over the country.

Moldova fears the Kremlin's use of "internal forces" but also of Belarusian, Serbian and Montenegrin nationals to put a pro-Russian leader back in power and cut short any pro-European desire.

While it is currently impossible to guarantee the credibility of such a scenario, Chisinau remains easy prey for Moscow.

"The Moldovan state is precarious. Moldova is the poorest country in Europe and would have a hard time defending itself in the event of an attack. In this context, the influence of Moscow can have a very strong and very fast", analyzes Lukas Aubin, research director at IRIS and specialist in Russia, with Europe 1.

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Moreover, the "Novorossia" or "Great Russia" project of which Vladimir Putin dreams includes the Moldavian territory, in the same way as Ukraine or Belarus.

In other words, there is no guarantee that Moscow will not one day try to reintegrate this republic of three million inhabitants into its fold.

Especially since the Kremlin can count on two weapons of massive destabilization inside Moldova itself.

Gagauzia, first of all, an autonomous and Turkish-speaking region generally very favorable to Russia, but also and above all Transnistria, a pro-Russian separatist land partly controlled by soldiers from Moscow. 

Too few soldiers in Transnistria

Nevertheless, the hypothesis of a military maneuver, initiated by Russia in this region, remains unlikely according to Florent Parmentier, associate researcher at the HEC Geopolitics Center and co-author of the book Moldova at the crossroads of the worlds

.

"The number of soldiers in Transnistria remains very limited, a little over a thousand. It is difficult for them to have a real impact. If they were to attack Moldova, one can imagine that the Ukrainian army could push them aside enough easily".

On the other hand, if Moscow were to send the Russian army directly to Transnistria, the threat would become much more concrete.

But that would suppose having to cross the whole of the Ukrainian territory where the Russian soldiers are already well occupied.

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In Moldova, Moscow therefore does not seem in a position to establish by force a power that would be favorable to it.

"Neither Ukraine nor Romania could accept it. However, Moldova is landlocked between these two countries. In such a situation, it is very difficult to envisage anything other than a surrender of this power", considers Florent Parmentier.

Russia could therefore stick to lighter destabilization ventures.

We can mention the financing of demonstrations hostile to the West or the propaganda operations carried out among the populations of Gagaouzia and Transnistria.

"This destabilization is nothing new in Moldova. It happens every time a pro-European government comes to power," said Lukas Aubin. 

Moldova therefore seems condemned to look suspiciously at a Russia whose true intentions are sometimes very difficult to discern.

“A few days before the start of the war, Putin hammered home that he was not going to invade Ukraine,” recalls Lukas Aubin.