After the first round of December 17, voters are once again called to the polls in Tunisia for the second round of legislative elections, Sunday January 29, to elect a Parliament deprived of real powers.

Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. GMT and will mostly close at 5 p.m. GMT.

In total, 262 candidates are in the ballot for 131 seats of deputies (out of 161), an election which marks the last stage of reforms imposed for a year and a half by President Kaïs Saïed to return to an ultra-presidentialist system, similar to that before the 2011 revolution and the fall of the Ben Ali regime.

After months of political blockage, Kaïs Saïed seized all the powers since July 25, 2021 then dissolved the Parliament, before reforming the Constitution last summer, abolishing the hybrid parliamentary system existing since 2014.

Faced with a head of state now impossible to dismiss, the new Assembly will see its prerogatives limited: it will take 10 deputies to present a bill and the texts of the president will be voted on in priority.

>> To read also: from the coup de force of Kaïs Saïed to the legislative elections, how Tunisia got bogged down in the crisis

To eventually overthrow the government, the approval of two motions of censure will be necessary, and two-thirds of the Assembly of Deputies and the National Council of Regions, a body not yet constituted.

Sunday evening, all eyes will therefore be on the turnout after a fiasco in the first round with 11.2% of voters, the highest abstention since the advent of democracy 12 years ago.

While 7.8 million Tunisians are called to the polls, experts again predict a low turnout.

"Disinterest of the population"

The opposition parties, including Ennahdha, the Islamist-inspired party – a pet peeve of Kaïs Saïed – which dominated Parliament over the last decade, are boycotting this election which, for them, is the culmination of a "coup " and bears witness to an "authoritarian drift" in the cradle of the Arab Spring.

Also, the majority of candidates are unknown and are not allowed to display a political affiliation.

“Given the lack of interest of the population” for politics, “this Parliament will have little legitimacy, the president, all-powerful thanks to the Constitution of 2022, will be able to dominate it as he pleases”, indicates Youssef Cherif, expert from Columbia Global Centers .

The attention of the 12 million Tunisians is elsewhere.

They see their purchasing power plunge with inflation above 10% and experience shortages of subsidized foodstuffs such as milk, coffee, sugar or edible oil. 

For economists, these shortages are explained by supply disruptions because the State lacks liquidity, and suppliers want to be paid in advance. 

The American rating agency Moody's announced on Saturday that it had downgraded Tunisia's long-term debt by another notch to "Caa2 with negative outlook", judging "higher the risk" of non-reimbursement of certain maturities.

"Dramatic" economic situation and negotiations with the IMF

"The economic situation is dramatic. The country is on the verge of collapse," says political scientist Hamadi Redissi, worried to see President Saïed blame these shortages, "pathetically on 'speculators', 'traitors', 'saboteurs'".

Growth is sluggish (less than 3%), unemployment high (over 15%), poverty is on the rise and more than 32,000 Tunisians emigrated illegally last year.

Another cause for concern: negotiations with the IMF for a new loan of 1.9 billion dollars, the key to other foreign aid, have been stalling for months.

After an agreement in principle in mid-October, the Fund still has to give a definitive green light.

This blockage is linked to "internal reasons", according to experts.

There is "a flagrant discrepancy between the untimely sovereignist declarations of the president against international organizations, and the program proposed to the IMF by the government", considers Hamidi Redissi.

President Saïed "seems to be reluctant to accept", according to Youssef Cherif, unpopular reforms such as the lifting of state subsidies on basic products and the restructuring of the hundred over-indebted public companies, with overstaffing.

With AFP

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