He is the master of the clocks: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, candidate for his own succession, confirmed on Sunday January 22 his desire to organize presidential and legislative elections on May 14 after several weeks of speculation around a new electoral calendar.
The date owes nothing to chance.
It refers to the victory of Adnan Menderes, icon of the conservative right, in 1950 during the first free elections in Turkey after three decades of a single party.
"Adnan Menderes was the first to win against the Kemalists and put an end to this long period of governance by the 'secularists' as they say in Turkey", details Adel Bakawan, associate researcher in the Turkey and Middle East program of the Institute. French for International Relations (IFRI).
"It is a reference for the most conservative categories of Turkish society, the base of Recep Tayyip Erdogan who seeks here to send a message to his electorate".
>> To read also: Six months before the presidential election, secularism is once again stirring up passions
To justify this change of calendar, the Turkish president explains that he wanted to avoid that the initial date of the poll does not telescope the organization of university exams.
In reality, this maneuver would allow the "Reis" to save himself a possible legal battle around his re-election.
In theory, the country's constitution allows only two consecutive presidential terms.
However, it provides for a derogation “if the Parliament decides to renew the elections during the second term of the president”.
In order to call for an early ballot, "a three-fifths majority of Parliament is required, that is to say 360 votes out of 600", recalls the newspaper Le Monde.
To validate this change, Recep Tayyip Erdogan will therefore have to find the support of at least 25 elected representatives of the opposition, the AKP and the Nationalist Action Party, the coalition in power, with only 355 seats.
"But for the moment Erdogan is trying to imply that this is not an anticipation of the elections but a simple administrative adjustment in relation to a busy schedule", notes Elise Massicard, researcher at CNRS and Turkey specialist, according to whom "nothing has been done yet".
A low popularity rating
Beyond this legal imbroglio, the candidate president would seek to take advantage of a more favorable dynamic in the polls while his popularity rating is at its lowest.
"The polls are not favorable but there has been a slight improvement in recent weeks linked to international politics", assures Elise Massicard who cites the role of Turkey on the file of the export of Ukrainian cereals or the opposition to Sweden's entry into NATO.
"It has been relayed a lot in the Turkish media to praise the power of Erdogan", adds the researcher.
If the "Reis" shines on the international scene, it is in great difficulty domestically: the economy is idling, the pound has again lost nearly 30% of its value last year against the dollar and inflation galloping makes life impossible for millions of Turks.
Part of public opinion also criticizes him for his authoritarian drift that began in 2014 and has been reinforced since an attempted coup in 2016.
Added to this is the delicate question of the presence of 3.6 million Syrians on Turkish soil.
A generous reception policy wanted by Erdogan in the name of "Islamic brotherhood", recalls Adel Bakawan.
"However, these refugees are now perceived as a burden or even an enemy by part of Turkish public opinion", in the context of the economic crisis.
Overturn "the table of Six"
To block Erdogan's road to his third term still far from over, a motley opposition gathered within a platform called "the table of Six", bringing together six political parties led by the CHP (Republican People's Party) , attempts to appoint a single candidate.
Its objective: to put an end to the ultra-presidential regime put in place by Erdogan with the constitutional referendum of 2017, allowing him in particular to legislate by decree and to keep control of the appointment of senior magistrates.
"But for the moment, the opposition camp is unable to bring about an agreement. Bringing forward the date of the election is therefore a way of taking them by surprise and limiting their room for maneuver in these negotiations", analyzes Adel Bakawan.
Especially since the best placed opposition candidate, Ekrem İmamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, is no longer an option since his conviction in December to two and a half years in prison for having "insulted" political leaders.
The latter, who appealed his conviction, had then denounced "a political affair".
If Erdogan shows here that he has lost none of his political skill, this change in the electoral calendar illustrates a form of feverishness for the strong man of the country who, for the first time in 20 years, is no longer completely in control of his fate.
>> See also: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, twenty years of divisive power
"This election is far from a foregone conclusion", confirms Elise Massicard.
The Turkish power, which has broad access to public resources as well as to the national media to carry out the campaign, "seems therefore ready to resort to all sorts of stratagems and to play all the cards at their disposal to win", estimates the researcher.
"Despite everything that has been said and all his difficulties, Erdogan remains the favorite," judge Adel Bakawan.
"However, it is weakened and now there is a doubt" about the outcome of this presidential election.
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