President Erdogan hopes to complete his victory by capturing large cities, in particular Istanbul. Five years ago, the megacity of 16 million inhabitants went to the opposition.
Outgoing mayor Ekrem Imamoglu is seeking a second term. If the voters of his party, the CHP, are the only ones to vote for him, he will undoubtedly not be re-elected. But if voters of other opposition parties – in particular those of the pro-Kurdish DEM party and the ultranationalist Iyi party – make the strategic choice to support the outgoing mayor to make Recep Tayyip Erdogan lose again in Istanbul.