China News Service, Beijing, October 21 (Chen Caixia) On the 19th local time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin have reached an agreement on the construction of a natural gas hub in Turkey, and Europe can use Russia's natural gas through Turkey.
In the recent situation in Russia and Ukraine, can Turkey replace Germany as the next European energy hub?
In the face of Turkey's second-hand natural gas, is Europe caught in the energy crisis "buying it"?
Can Russia successfully resolve the current energy sanctions?
FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Sheng Jiapeng
Turkey, the next European energy hub?
Since the Ukrainian crisis, Europe has imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia, striving to achieve "de-Russification" of energy, which has brought changes to Russia's natural gas export pattern and forced it to expand into new markets.
There are four main pipelines in Russia's gas pipeline to Europe.
The "North Stream" pipeline, which transmits gas to Germany via the Baltic Sea, is Russia's only direct pipeline to Europe; the pipeline through Ukraine has dropped sharply, and it is difficult to expand gas transmission in the short term; the transit pipeline through Belarus and Poland, due to Poland's refusal to pay in rubles for pipeline gas has been halted; the remaining pipeline is the "Turkey Stream" through the Black Sea.
At the end of September, the two pipelines of the "North Stream" were deliberately damaged and leaked, ruining the possibility of Russia's short-term recovery of gas supply to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline.
On the other hand, the situation in Russia and Ukraine recently took a turn for the worse due to the explosion of the Crimea Bridge and the airstrike in Kyiv.
In this context, the "Turkey Stream" pipeline is considered to be the first option to make up for the "North Stream" shortfall and even replace the Ukrainian pipeline.
Putin's recent move to turn to the Turkish market for a breakthrough is also considered reasonable.
He not only proposed that Russia supply gas to Europe through Turkey, but also proposed the construction of Europe's largest gas hub in Turkey.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan then responded positively, saying that he had instructed relevant Turkish departments to cooperate with Russia to build a new gas supply hub.
Gazprom President Miller also said that Gazprom is ready to build more natural gas pipelines to Turkey under the Black Sea.
He suggested creating a trading hub on the EU-Turkey border to sell gas.
"It is not ruled out that after the completion of the Turkish natural gas hub, the new hub will undertake the entire gas transmission volume of the 'North Stream' pipeline." He said.
Data map: The pipeline of the "Beixi-2" natural gas pipeline project landing facility.
The calculation of Russia and Turkey, the game of Europe
In the future, can Turkey really replace Germany as a new energy hub?
The outlook is not so rosy.
First, the strategic importance of sending gas to Europe via Turkey is likely to be overestimated.
According to the German Institute for International Political and Security Affairs, in 2020, the EU's natural gas consumption will reach 394 billion cubic meters.
However, only 5 billion cubic meters, or 1.2% of the total, were transported to the European market via Turkish pipelines.
This means that the scale of possible future shipments is limited.
Second, Turkey faces many challenges in becoming a gas hub.
The "Turkey Stream" pipeline lacks the geographical advantage of gas transmission to Europe. It will increase the cost of Russian gas bypassing Turkey, and the cost of new natural gas infrastructure is also very high.
As the Minister of Land, Energy and Natural Resources Denmez said, "It is technically feasible, but it needs to be evaluated and studied in many aspects."
In addition, whether Europe will "buy it" is also a big question.
French President Emmanuel Macron said a few days ago that the joint construction of a natural gas hub by Russia and Turkey "makes no sense" because the EU will not increase imports at all.
Simone Tagliapitra, a senior researcher at European think tank Bruegel, said that many factors will determine whether Turkey will become a regional gas hub after 2025.
But what is certain is that this potential will not come from the supply side, but from the demand side.
However, the EU is now seeking to diversify its natural gas supply in an effort to wean itself off Russia.
According to the US "Washington Post" report on the 8th, Norway has replaced Russia as the EU's largest natural gas supplier.
Although Putin's proposal faces many practical challenges, seeking a breakthrough in Turkey, a relatively safe and independent energy transportation market, is still regarded as a visionary step that Putin has taken to solve the situation.
As for Turkey, it also has its own calculations.
On the road to benefiting from the energy hub, Turkey must tread carefully, "making a delicate balance between increasing its reliance on Russia and jeopardizing its relationship with the West." Mehmet, chairman of the London Energy Club, UK • August Library noted.
In fact, whether or not Turkey can become a European energy hub is not determined by Russia. The progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the determination to "de-Russify" European energy, and Turkey's sincerity in cooperation may all be the key factors that determine the outcome.
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