China News Service, Beijing, July 12 (Guan Na) As expected, Japan's ruling party won a big victory in the 26th House of Representatives election.

At the same time, Japan's "constitutional revision forces" have also made key breakthroughs, reaching the number of seats required to initiate a constitutional revision motion, and the issue of constitutional revision has once again become the focus of public opinion.

　　For a long time, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan has taken constitutional revision as its goal, and constitutional revision is the "long-cherished wish" of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

In the shadow of Abe's assassination, can Japan truly complete its constitutional revision?

On July 11, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a speech at a press conference after the announcement of the results of the Senate election.

"Constitutional revision forces" are just around the corner

　　According to the relevant procedures of Japan's constitutional amendment, the initiation of a constitutional amendment motion requires the support of more than two-thirds of the members of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Whether the constitutional amendment forces can maintain a two-thirds majority in the Senate to initiate constitutional amendment motions has become a major focus of this election.

　　As a result, not only did the Liberal Democratic Party win a big victory, but the Liberal Democratic Party, Komeito, Japan Restoration Association, and the National Democratic Party, which had a positive attitude towards the revision of the constitution, reached more than two-thirds of the seats required for the proposed revision of the constitution by the Diet, and crossed the “threshold of starting the revision process.” ".

　　The existence of Article 9 of the Japanese constitution makes the constitution known as the "peace constitution".

However, in recent years, Japanese politics has shown a right-leaning trend, and advocates for constitutional revision have risen.

　　Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the conservative forces in Japan have believed that the opportunity is coming, and plan to formally propose a constitutional amendment proposal after the victory of the Senate election.

　　Amending the constitution has always been Abe's "long-cherished wish".

Since he came to power, he has pushed for the revision of the constitution, saying that the Self-Defense Forces should be included in the constitution, but he failed to do so.

Just two days before the assassination, he also emphasized in his speech that "I want to write the Self-Defense Forces in the constitution and put an end to the unconstitutional debate."

On July 8, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot during a speech in Nara City.

The picture shows Shinzo Abe giving a street speech before being shot.

Image source: Visual China

　　After the results of the Senate election were released, the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made it clear that he would inherit Abe's "last wish" and "will launch a motion to amend the constitution as soon as possible."

　　Lu Yaodong, a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out in an interview with Chinanews.com, "The Japanese ruling party has been trying to amend the constitution, and the fundamental reason is that it has not correctly understood its historical problems at all." "Japan launched a militaristic war and owed With a lot of blood debt, the US participated in the creation of a 'peace constitution' to limit its militarism, while Japan is only concerned with itself being restricted and does not see why it is restricted."

　　In addition, a number of Japanese media also expressed concern about the revision of the constitution after the Senate election, and pointed out that the revision of the constitution will only aggravate the world's concerns about Japan's re-emergence of militarism, which is not conducive to regional stability, peace and prosperity.

Can Japan Really Amend the Constitution?

　　This time, the election of the upper house has made the conditions for revision of the constitution fulfilled. Can Japan really amend the constitution?

　　Wang Xinsheng, a professor at the Department of History at Peking University, said, "The revision of the constitution is certain, but after this election, Kishida needs to continue to stabilize his regime, and the revision of the constitution is not urgent work, and it does not have much effect on the stability of his regime. Kishida may The constitutional amendment will be completed within three years.”

　　Lu Yaodong believes, "The revision of the constitution is not only for Article 9, but the content of the revision of the constitution is also different between parties. Although the conditions for discussing the revision of the constitution have been met at present, whether a consensus can be formed in the future requires a process."

　　Kyodo News also noted that although the Liberal Democratic Party wants to promote constitutional revision discussions, differences between parties still exist.

The Cadet Party advocates that "revision of the constitution is not the highest priority issue", and it may be difficult for the ruling and opposition parties to reach a consensus.

　　On the other hand, the final hurdle of amending the constitution still needs the support of the majority of the people, but at present the people are most concerned about economic issues.

A person wearing a mask walks in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan's Nikkei index on June 29.

　　In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the proportion of people who agreed to amend the constitution has increased, but it has not reached half.

A recent poll by Japan's Asahi Shimbun shows that under the current government, 36% of the people agree to amend the constitution, while 38% are against it.

There are also polls that show that in this Senate election, the people are most concerned about the government's economic countermeasures, while only 4% of the people are concerned about the revision of the constitution.

　　Comments pointed out that if the Japanese government's policy is rejected by the national vote, it will cause great harm to Kishida's regime, so caution must be exercised in advancing the agenda of constitutional revision.

　　At present, Japan is facing problems such as rising prices, the rapid depreciation of the yen, and the power crisis. Zhou Yongsheng, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the China Foreign Affairs University, said, "Kishida's most important issue at present is the issue of people's livelihood. At present, the time is not yet ripe to immediately promote the revision of the constitution."

　　"If the revision of the constitution can take place, it will inevitably lead to regional instability. The Japanese government needs to deeply reflect on history and take the road of peaceful development." Wang Xinsheng pointed out.

　　In addition, Japan's "Kyoto Shimbun" recently called on all political parties not to incite crisis speculation, and to make a constitutional revision judgment that can stand the test of history after careful consideration.

　　Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on July 11 that due to historical reasons, the issue of Japan's constitutional revision has received high attention from the international community and its Asian neighbors. We hope that the Japanese side will earnestly learn from history, adhere to the path of peaceful development, and win trust with practical actions to Asian neighbors and the international community.

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