Deep contradictions: why NATO announced the absence of guarantees for the early entry into the bloc of Sweden and Finland

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he could not guarantee that Sweden and Finland would soon join NATO.

“My goal is to make sure that they can join as soon as possible.

I cannot guarantee this, but I say that I set this as my goal, ”said Stoltenberg, speaking at a forum organized by the Politico newspaper in Brussels.

The publication notes that the functionary made this statement on the eve of the alliance's summit, which will be held in Madrid next week, although "there is still no decision on the applications of Finland and Sweden."

However, according to the newspaper, Stoltenberg remains optimistic about the possible entry of two new members into the alliance, despite the resistance of Turkey.

“There have been cases where one or more of our allies disagreed with the rest,” the NATO Secretary General stated.

Lack of consensus

Finland and Sweden, which until recently maintained a neutral status, thought about joining NATO after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine.

Helsinki and Stockholm filed official applications to join the alliance on 18 May.

However, Turkey opposed their admission to the bloc.

As the country's authorities explained, Finland and Sweden support the Kurdistan Workers' Party and the organization of the preacher Fethullah Gülen, which Ankara considers terrorist.

In addition, the Turkish side put forward a number of conditions for applicants for NATO membership, including the lifting of the arms embargo introduced in 2019. 

• View of Istanbul

• Gettyimages.ru

Shortly after the submission of the applications, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey had informed its partners of its fundamental disagreement with the possible membership of Stockholm and Helsinki in the alliance and would continue to act decisively in the same vein.

After the Finnish and Swedish delegations took part in the negotiations on this issue in Ankara, Erdogan called their results unsatisfactory, accusing both countries of insincerity.

In addition, the Turkish leader once again stated that as long as he holds the presidency, Ankara will not allow states "supporting terrorism" to join NATO.

In early June, Erdogan's adviser Fahrettin Altun confirmed that Ankara's demands on both candidates remain unchanged, and negotiations on them are a waste of time.  

Nevertheless, on June 20, representatives of Turkey, Finland and Sweden held a new meeting in Brussels with senior NATO officials.

Stoltenberg called it constructive, adding that Ankara has legitimate concerns that need to be removed. 

In turn, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said that his country is unlikely to become a member of the alliance before September this year. 

“On the merits of the meeting (with Turkey and Sweden at NATO headquarters. -

) there was not much progress ... I would not like to give exact dates, but it is unlikely that we will be able to do this before September,” TASS quoted him as saying. .

US position 

At the same time, the US continues to lobby for Sweden and Finland to join the alliance.

Thus, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander at a hearing in the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee on June 22 said that, according to the Pentagon, Stockholm and Helsinki are "ready to become members of NATO."

She also called these countries a valuable acquisition for the alliance.

“Finland's location on the coast of the Baltic Sea, its diplomatic experience in relations with Russia and advanced (military. -

) capabilities make it valuable to the alliance.

Finland spends more than 2% of its GDP on defense, has unique military capabilities and experience, especially when conducting operations in the Arctic environment,” Wallander explained.

Sweden, according to a Pentagon spokesman, will give the bloc "a first-class and rapidly developing military force with a principled foreign policy position, within which democracy and human rights are passionately defended."

A similar opinion is shared by US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried.

“We are confident that this issue will be resolved in a positive way.

NATO has broad and deep support for the entry of Finland and Sweden (to the alliance. -

),” said the State Department functionary.

"The project is starting to stall"

At the same time, analysts believe that Stoltenberg's latest statement suggests that at the upcoming NATO summit in Madrid, the issue of admitting Sweden and Finland to the alliance is unlikely to be resolved.

“As an experienced official and bureaucrat, he made this statement in advance so that he would not have to make excuses later.

The agreement on the entry of Sweden and Finland ran into Ankara's tough position.

Without its approval, applications from Helsinki and Stockholm simply cannot be accepted because of the fundamental principle of consensus for NATO, ”said Sergey Ermakov, a leading expert at the RISS Research Coordination Center, in a conversation with RT.

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

• AP

He recalled that a new round of negotiations between Sweden, Finland and Turkey did not bring results.

“The leadership of Finland and Sweden is ready to make some compromises for the sake of joining NATO.

The authorities of these countries believe that this issue outweighs all other political costs.

However, elections are expected in these countries, and the situation may change.

Europe is already getting tired of the Russian-Ukrainian theme.

I do not exclude that sooner or later this issue will completely leave the agenda, and the domestic political situation will become more complicated, given that even now the leadership of Sweden and Finland refuses to hold a referendum on this issue, ”said the analyst.

According to him, a plebiscite on the issue of joining NATO is optional, but some countries have previously resorted to such a practice.

“This was done in order to once again demonstrate the unity of the political elites and the people.

But now the elite, apparently, is afraid,” says Ermakov.

At the same time, from his point of view, the Madrid summit would be extremely convenient for resolving the issue of NATO membership for Sweden and Finland, since along with the adoption of a new concept of the alliance, in which Russia will be designated as the main opponent of the bloc, it would be possible to make loud statements and make maximum use of advocacy resources.

Director General of the Center for Political Information Alexei Mukhin also believes that Stoltenberg's statement reduces the chances of a positive decision on the issue of admitting new members to NATO at the Madrid summit.

From the analyst's point of view, this suggests that the United States does not control the situation in the alliance as tightly as they would like.

“The United States decided to draw Sweden and Finland into the alliance without consensus and without all due process.

As a result, this project is starting to stall.

This is presented as a consequence of Turkey's "obstinacy", although in reality we are talking about deep-seated contradictions within NATO itself.

I think that in fact, many Finns and Swedes are internally happy that Turkey does not let them into the bloc, because this will lead to obvious and very serious changes in relations with Russia.

Despite the general mood in the establishment of these two countries, the population thinks about their security more than some politicians,” Mukhin concluded.