An American researcher expects the escalation of independence demands from the constituent republics of the Russian Federation
Is Russia disintegrating due to the war in Ukraine?
Putin ordered the invasion of his neighbor Ukraine.
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Russian soldiers in Ukraine may end up the same fate as their occupation of Afghanistan.
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The Russian war in Ukraine is still continuing without achieving clear gains for Moscow, weeks after its launch, but the losses are becoming more evident.
These losses may eventually lead, according to American researcher Dan Negria, to the disintegration of Russia, with the escalation of demands for independence by the constituent republics of the Russian Federation, in a repetition of the scenario of the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
"Russia's ill-fated invasion of Ukraine brings to mind the campaign against Suez (the so-called tripartite aggression in Egypt) by Britain and France in 1956," adds Negria, a fellow at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategies and Security, in a report published by the National Interest. The humiliating decline of Britain and France marked the end of their status as first-class powers, and the beginning of a turbulent period of political crises, and the loss of territory to independence movements.
Nigeria, who previously worked in the US State Department's Office of Policy Planning, adds that history may repeat itself, as Russia faces a failure in its attempt to occupy Ukraine.
In the process, Russia suffers huge losses in military capacity, economic power, and international standing.
It is now clear that Russia is not a great power in the ranks of the United States and China.
A period of political turmoil, which is likely to include demands for independence, on the part of its constituent republics leads to the disintegration of the Russian Federation, as the Soviet Union witnessed before.
In 1956, Britain and France appeared to be strong.
They were finally victorious in World War II, two dominant European powers, permanent members of the UN Security Council, and they ruled two vast colonial empires.
They felt strong enough to invade Egypt, to prevent President Gamal Abdel Nasser from nationalizing the Suez Canal.
But then the real great powers of the time objected, as the United States threatened economic sanctions, the Soviet Union threatened military retaliation, and Britain and France were forced into a humiliating retreat.
The then British Prime Minister, Anthony Eden, was accused of lying to the House of Commons and forced to resign.
Feeling weak, the British colonies increased their pressure for independence.
The pro-British Iraqi monarchy fell in 1958. Cyprus and Malta became independent shortly thereafter.
By 1967, more than 20% of the British-controlled territories were independent.
The crisis in France was even worse.
The withdrawal from Suez came two years after the surrender of the French garrison at Dien Bien Phu to the North Vietnamese, and some military officers attributed these defeats to a political class that had no strength.
In 1958, a group of military officers and colonial officials staged a coup d'état in Algeria, the Fourth Republic collapsed, and Charles de Gaulle assumed power as President of the Fifth Republic.
The Algerians won the long war of independence in 1962, and 900,000 Algerian Europeans fled to France, fearing reprisals.
Freedom movements gained strength throughout the French colonies.
transcend
Nigeria says the Russian-Ukrainian war launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin is an overreach and will force Russia to recognize its own borders and diminished stature.
It is likely to face renewed demands for independence from its constituent republics and territories.
He adds that the whole world is witnessing the inability of the Russian army to display its strength, even in a neighboring country at a third of its size.
The Russian economy is declining under the weight of the cost of war and sanctions, as inflation is heading towards 20%, and the economy will shrink by 10% this year, the Russian Stock Exchange is not working, and Russian shares traded in London have fallen by more than 90%.
The impact of the extremely harsh and comprehensive sanctions imposed on Russia by most of the world's major economic powers will only grow with time.
political consequences
He shows that the international political consequences of the invasion are equally realistic.
Russia does not have significant allies in this war.
China provides only tacit support.
Belarus is an ally, but it has little to offer.
Meanwhile, almost all of Europe, the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, and many other countries of the free world are aligned against Russia, actively helping Ukraine.
For Nigeria, these dangerous challenges are being addressed by a fragile political system built around Putin's personal dictatorship.
He adds that Putin will have to increase internal repression even more to deal with growing dissatisfaction with the war.
But this also has its costs and limitations. There are more people today in the Russian security services than in its armed forces, and more people in prisons.
Nigeria concludes by saying that the invasion of Ukraine was a grave miscalculation, as Putin thought it would be like the invasion of Hungary in 1956, or Czechoslovakia in 1968, which made the Soviet Union stronger, and even more like the Afghanistan war of 1979-1989, after which the union disintegrated The Soviet Union, and many of its constituent republics became independent.
• The whole world is witnessing the inability of the Russian army to display its strength, even in a neighboring country at a third of its size. The Russian economy is declining under the weight of the cost of war and sanctions, as inflation is heading towards 20%, and the economy will shrink by 10% this year, the Russian Stock Exchange is not working, and Russian shares traded in London have fallen by more than 90%.
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