Analysts around the world agree that entering the war is easier than getting out of it, and among the various possible scenarios in the Russian war on Ukraine, there are 5 scenarios that are constantly presented in all expectations, according to Agence France-Presse, although they also remain shrouded in ambiguity, namely:
Putin's fall
This is the scenario that Westerners dream of, as they seek, by targeting the Russian economy, with sanctions that have been in place since last November, with plans for another series of sanctions being prepared, to weaken the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin;
Ultimately trying to bring him down.
The Russian army may decide to stop carrying out orders, or the people may rebel against it in the midst of a major economic crisis, or the Russian oligarchs may abandon it after their assets are frozen or confiscated in the world, but such possibilities remain surrounded by great doubts.
"Regime change in Russia appears to be the only way out of this tragedy, but it could improve the situation as much as it worsens it," Rand Samuel Sharpe, a researcher at the Rand Samuel Sharpe Foundation, wrote in a tweet.
Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Endowment noted that Putin remains popular, according to independent analyzes. "At present, unprecedented Western financial pressure has turned the Russian political class and the oligarchs into steadfast supporters of their president," he said.
acquiescence ukraine
This is Putin's scenario. The Russian army is superior to the Ukrainian forces and can compel the country to submit, but this possibility faces obstacles that many consider insurmountable.
"It is a war that Vladimir Putin cannot win, no matter how long and brutal his means," said British historian Lawrence Friedman of King's College London. "Entering a city is different from keeping it under control."
Bruno Tertreet, assistant director of the Institute for Strategic Research, commented on the possibility of annexing Ukraine, saying, "This has almost no chance of being achieved," and about the division of Ukraine along the lines of Korea or Germany in 1945, Tertreet said that it is not possible as well.
The option remains that "Russia will be able to defeat the Ukrainian forces and a puppet regime will be installed in Kyiv."
fan
The Ukrainians surprised the Russians and the Westerners, and perhaps surprised themselves, with their sheer mobilization despite the great devastation and heavy losses.
A Western diplomat pointed out that "the state, the army, and the administration have not collapsed." Contrary to Putin's speech, "the people do not receive the Russians as liberators," noting that "probably difficulties in the Russian military chain, and it is still too early to describe them."
escalation of the conflict
Ukraine shares a border with 4 member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and was previously part of the Soviet bloc, which Putin does not hide his nostalgia for.
Now that Russia has absorbed Belarus and invaded Ukraine, will it set its sights on Moldova, the tiny country between Ukraine and Romania, and perhaps as far as Georgia on the eastern coast of the Black Sea?
Here, Tertreet believes that Moscow may try to bring down the European and Atlantic security balances by "provoking incidents on Europe's borders" or perhaps through cyber attacks.
But will Russia dare to defy NATO and Article 5 of its charter, which stipulates the principle of mutual defense in the event that one of its members is attacked?
Director of the Mediterranean Institute for Strategic Studies, former Admiral Pascal Ausur, said that this is "very unlikely, given the keenness of the two parties to avoid it."
But he added, speaking to Agence France-Presse (AFP) that the entry of Russian forces into one of the NATO countries - Lithuania, for example - to link Kaliningrad with Belarus remains a possibility.
nuclear confrontation
Putin made a major escalation by declaring last Sunday to put the nuclear deterrent forces "on special alert", in a worrying situation, but it lacks real credibility.
Here, opinions are divided into two categories. The first is represented by Christopher Chavis of the Carnegie Institution, who believes that Russia may use a bomb that may be "tactical", and therefore of limited force.
"Exceeding the nuclear threshold will not necessarily mean immediate nuclear war, but it will mark a very dangerous turning point in world history," he wrote.
On the other hand, others show a more reassuring stance, led by Gustav Grisel from the European Council on International Relations.
Grisel believes that "there is no preparation on the part of the Russian side for a nuclear strike," considering that Putin's statements are "mainly directed at Western audiences to create fear."