From Australia to California, and all the way to the Arctic, images of spectacular fires devouring forests and homes have made headlines in recent years.

And this is just the beginning, warns the report by UN-Environment and the GRID-Arendal center published on Wednesday.

Fires, natural, accidental or caused, are not directly caused by global warming, but the increasingly frequent and intense episodes of droughts and heat waves create conditions particularly favorable to their development.

"Even with the most ambitious efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the planet will experience a dramatic increase in the frequency of conditions conducive to extreme fires," the report said.

Favorable conditions do not necessarily mean fires.

Nevertheless, even if the world managed to limit warming to +2°C compared to the pre-industrial era, the main objective of the Paris agreement, the number of episodes of catastrophic fires such as those which ravaged Australia during the 2019-2020 austral summer or the Arctic in 2020, is expected to increase between 9 and 14% by 2030, between 20 and 33% by 2050, and between 31 and 52% by 2100 .

Rising temperatures in the world since 2002 Kenan AUGEARD AFP

These figures relate only to the most exceptional fires, which in theory occur only once every 100 years and which would thus occur a little more often.

"These are low-probability events and that increases their probability slightly," says one of the authors, Andrew Sullivan, of Australia's CSIRO agency.

Although the report does not provide estimates for the rest of the fires, "it is likely that less extreme episodes will increase just as much", he added during a press conference, noting that the increase in the number of events could also be interpreted as an extension of the burnt surfaces.

Fuels

Without even talking about a possible worsening of the situation, the fires are already a danger to life on the planet and its inhabitants: smoke inhalation, soil degradation and water pollution, destruction of the habitats of many species.

Not to mention the worsening of global warming due to the destruction of forests, crucial for absorbing the carbon we emit.

But if eliminating the risk of fires is impossible, it can on the other hand be reduced, insists the report.

The Dixie Fire, July 26, 2021 in Twain, California Robyn Beck AFP/Archives

In particular by improving the management of “fuels” – anything that can burn – another key variable in the behavior of a fire with weather conditions (heat and drought which increase with warming) and topography.

But "the response of governments to the fires is to put money in the wrong place", regrets the boss of the UN-Environment Inger Andersen in a press release.

According to the report, the costs of the damage caused by fires are far higher than the investments to fight them, of which the largest part today concerns the reaction to fires that have already started (firefighters, evacuations).

An imbalance that must be corrected by investing in prevention: reducing activities that can cause fires to start, better managing dead plants left on the ground, clearing brush around homes, modifying land use planning, etc.

"We must minimize the risk of extreme fires by being prepared: invest more in risk reduction, work with local communities, and strengthen global commitments against climate change", insisted Inger Andersen.

© 2022 AFP