The intensification of the conflict over the presidency of Iraq pushes Barzani to nominate a figure from the family

The dispute between the two main Kurdish parties in Iraq has entered an advanced stage, in light of the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s insistence on nominating a figure from the Barzani family to fill the post of President of Iraq, while his counterpart, the National Union, is demanding that the post remain from his share, and this came after the Union Supreme Court’s decision to expel Hoshyar Zebari. The "Democratic" candidate.

After Zebari's deportation, the "Democrat" pushed another candidate, the Minister of Interior of the region, Reber Ahmed Barzani, in contrast, the "National Union" adhered to the nomination of the current president, Barham Salih, to occupy the position for a second term.

Born in 1968 and holding the rank of major general, Reeper held important and sensitive positions during the last two decades within the security and intelligence services of his party, including the head of the Joint Security Coordination Department in the Kurdistan Security Council since 2012, the director of news analysis at the Security Protection Agency in the region (2005-2012) and the director of combating organized crime. In the Defense Department of the Security Protection Foundation (2000-2005).

Reber Ahmed, the "Democratic" candidate for the presidency of Iraq, is close to Masrour Barzani (communication sites)

What does Barzani's candidacy mean?

The roots of the conflict over the presidency of the republic were not recent between the two Kurdish parties, with their security and intelligence services and extensive economic resources within the region. Rather, its first spark dates back to 2018, when each of them entered with a different candidate from the other to the Iraqi parliament, to ignite the conflict between them, and was finally resolved The victory of the "national" candidate and the loss of the "democratic".

Kurdish media saw the loss of the "Democratic" candidate in 2018, and the exclusion of Zebari from the presidential race, as a loss for Barzani, which prompted the party to nominate a figure close to the latter and even from the same family.

Reber - according to Kurdish media - is considered the security shadow of the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Masrour Barzani, and the second man close to him, and although he was chosen as Minister of the Interior when the ninth government of the regional government was formed in 2019, his name began to take on a wider space after he was assigned to supervise the campaign to combat the virus. Corona year 2020 in Kurdistan.

His candidacy also means - according to the Kurdish media - the different tools of conflict this time within the "democratic" and its transition from the old generation led by Barzani, father (Mustafa) to the new generation, which is (happy) the son facing the other party, Pavel Talabani (leader of the Patriotic Union), who It is of the new generation.

And what these sources described most as “strange” is the nomination of a personality for the first time from the Barzani family for a sovereign position in Baghdad, a phenomenon that was not familiar in the past, especially after the American occupation of the country in 2003, although the “democrat” obtained many sovereign positions, most notably Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Mullah Fouad believes that the nomination of the first person from the Barzani family for a sovereign position in Baghdad has not happened before (Al Jazeera Net)

Half a century of conflict

Kurdish political analyst Ihsan Mulla Fouad sees the candidacy of the first Barzani family's candidacy for a sovereign position in Baghdad as a case that has not occurred since the seventies of the last century, in addition to this step as an attempt to restore Barzani's dignity first after he suffered the first loss in 2018 with the loss of his candidate Fouad Hussein for the presidency, The loss was repeated recently by excluding Zebari from the race.

Although the Kurdish analyst believes that the roots of the conflict between the two Kurdish parties date back more than half a century ago, he believes that the outside has a role in fueling it, specifically Iran and America, and perhaps Turkey, which enjoys good relations with the "democratic" and seeks to deliver its candidate to the presidential palace, along with the dispute. Between the two parties on the province of Kirkuk.

As for who will resolve the conflict this time, and will it be for the benefit of the party led by Pavel Talabani or for the party leading Barzani, Mullah Fouad tells Al Jazeera Net that the "National Union" will get the presidency again and the "democratic" will lose, attributing the reason to the quotas set by Washington and Tehran in Distribution of sovereign positions, with the latter impossibility allowing the Presidency of the Republic to be other than the “National Union” because it is closely related to it, with common interests between them.

Salam is likely to win the Kurdistan Democratic candidate because he has the support of Al-Sadr, Al-Halbousi and Al-Khanjar (Al-Jazeera Net)

burning leaves

However, the prominent member of the Democratic Party, Repin Salam, disagrees with Mullah Fouad, and shows that Reber's candidacy came in order to burn all the papers of those he called "obstructors" and the justifications they put in front of Zebari's candidacy, which was a foregone conclusion.

Salam describes to Al Jazeera Net the decision to remove Zebari from the race as "politicised" and illegal, and that it is desperate attempts to prevent his victory, however he seems optimistic that Reaper will be the most fortunate among the other candidates because he has the support of the Triple Alliance - which includes the Sadrist bloc led by Muqtada al-Sadr and an alliance Al-Siyada al-Sunni (composed of the "Taqaddam" bloc led by Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi and the "Azm" bloc led by Khamis al-Khanjar) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party.

To win the presidency of the republic requires a two-thirds majority vote of the 329 members of the Iraqi parliament.

With the current data, the prominent member of the Democratic Party seems to be somewhat apprehensive about obstructing the parliament session to choose the president from parties who know that they will lose the fight against the Kurdistan Democratic Party.

Salam acknowledges that the deepening of differences between the two Kurdish parties will not serve the Kurds, but will contribute to exploiting the problems between them to issue "unfair" decisions against them, similar to the Federal Court's decision that the oil and gas law in the regional government is unconstitutional.

Al-Sorji expressed his optimism about the inevitable victory of Barham Salih (Al-Jazeera Net)

Will the 2018 scenario be repeated?

For his part, the prominent member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Ghiath Al-Sorji, expressed his optimism about the inevitability of Barham Salih winning a second term, expecting a repeat of the scenario that occurred in 2018 when Parliament voted on the President of the Republic.

Al-Surji underestimated the influence of the Kurdistan Democratic Alliance with the Sadrist movement, and progress on the chances of their candidate to win the presidency, considering that Saleh has strong internal and external relations, in addition to being an experienced politician, according to a prominent member of the National Union.

The most important thing that Al-Sorji strengthens his party’s front by deciding the race in his favour, by submitting an appeal to the Federal Court, is that the opening of the door for candidacy for the second time by the Presidency of Parliament came in contravention of the constitution, and if the court decides to invalidate the presidential decision, the Democratic candidate will be outside the candidacy, which means enhancing the chances of fit to win.

The PUK member concludes his speech by confirming that Pavel Talabani has the same capabilities that he had in 2018 through his relations with other Iraqi parties, which may enable him to turn the equation in favor of his party, as he did previously.

It is worth noting that the number of candidates for the post of President of the Republic has risen to 60, after reopening the nomination window more than a week ago.

However, the strongest competition is between the candidates of the two main Kurdish parties: the Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union.