News summary on the way home from work, Subsletter Evening.
There are 48 days left before the March 9th presidential election, and at this point, there are many people who say, "This is the first election like this."
Most of them come from the negative side, but the most common term is 'the most unfavorable election'.
It may be in a similar vein, but I will summarize the differences in this election from the past into four categories: 1) a lot of injunction applications, 2) a lot of negative offensives, 3) difficult to predict, and 4) a lot of TV debate issues.
"Let's stop it for now"... ① 'Injunction' presidential election
In order to prevent the disclosure of unfavorable content from the opposition parties, there were more applications for injunction than in the past presidential election. Among the injunction cases in which the opposition candidates applied to the court to ban broadcasting or publication, three cases yielded results. are you. Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol's wife, Kim Geon-hee, requested injunction against MBC and YouTube channel 'Open Sympathy TV', respectively, saying that they should not air the recordings of '7 Hours of Call', but most of them were rejected. The recorded file is about 7 hours and 45 minutes of conversation with Kim Gun-hee, a reporter from the YouTube channel 'Voice of Seoul' several times. In the application for injunction against MBC, the court told us not to broadcast anything related to the case under investigation or daily conversations unrelated to political views.
There is also a case in which the Democratic Party applied for an injunction, and it was filed against the publisher's representative to ban the sale and distribution of 'Goodbye, Lee Jae-myung', a book about the conflict between candidate Lee Jae-myung and his older brother Lee Jae-sun. But the court in charge of this case dismissed it, that is, allowed the book to be sold on the market.
There are also injunction cases awaiting a court decision. Kim Kun-hee has applied for an injunction against MBC, which is trying to broadcast a second call recording file, and has also filed an injunction against 'Voice of Seoul'.
Looking at the reasons why the application for injunction is rejected by the court, they have in common that they need to verify public figures and advocate freedom of the press and the press. In particular, the judge of Kim Gun-hee's application for injunction against 'Open Sympathy TV' also said, "In principle, it should not be allowed to ban media reports beforehand. The content of the expression is not true or for the public interest, The prior ban is granted only if there is a risk of inflicting serious and remarkably irreparable damage to the victim.” The trial court in charge of the application for injunction filed by the Democratic Party said, "The importance of freedom of expression in the democratic political system, the need to guarantee freedom of expression in order to verify a candidate's qualifications for public office in the public office election, and to allow legitimate suspicions; The need to guarantee the people's right to know" was cited as the basis for the judgment. The court's stance on freedom of the press is clearly evident in these injunction decisions.
In addition to the injunction to prevent the opponent's attack, the People's Party and the Justice Party also applied for an injunction to ban broadcasting over the bilateral TV debate.
Before revealing your privacy... ② 'Negative' presidential election
What is related to the problem of excessive injunctions is the fact that the negative offensive is strong in the presidential election.
After some of the recordings of Candidate Lee Jae-myung and Yun Seok-yeol's wife, Kim Gun-hee's phone call were released, there was a workshop about it, and even the word voyeurism was born.
The privacy of the candidate and his family is swallowing up all the issues, so no matter how much the candidates make policy promises, the politicians ignore those promises first, and voters make the promises themselves sound hollow.
It is also related to the unprecedented unfavorable election, and there is an analysis that negatives are running out to attract supporters who the opponent hates because the unfavorable feeling towards the two candidates is high.
You can tell by analyzing the comments made by both parties how severe the muddy fight that criticizes the other party is.
Today (20th) SBS 8 News is preparing a report analyzing the comments of both parties.
More negative material related to the candidate's or family's private life is likely to come out, and there is no sign of the end of the melee.
The old-fashioned political battle is a serious problem in that it can cover the eyes and ears of voters and even block the exercise of the right to vote.
It is time to seriously consider the topic of the presidential election.
Negatives have always appeared in the past presidential elections, but they were not as severe as in this election.
Candidates should keep in mind that while the BBK allegations were raised in the 2007 presidential election and the private life of former President Park Geun-hye and Pastor Choi Tae-min in the 2012 presidential election, there were future discourses such as 'saving the economy' and 'economic democratization' as the presidential election topic.
In the fog of match prediction... ③ 'Orimujung' presidential election
Another characteristic of this election is the fact that it is impossible to predict the winner even 48 days before the election.
In various opinion polls, the approval ratings of candidate Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-yeol fluctuate, and most are within the margin of error.
This phenomenon is also related to the problems mentioned above, and there are many analyzes that it is the result of the middle class and the youth in their 20s and 30s not taking the right direction because the candidate or family risk is so high that it is stigmatized as an 'unfavorable presidential election'.
Professor Hogi Kim of Yonsei University also appeared on KBS radio a few days ago and predicted that "even the beginning of March, the situation could be a mess."
In the past presidential election, it was possible to predict the winner about 50 days before the election day.
In most cases, the candidate who placed first in the polls at this time became the final winner.
The outline of the final outcome was revealed as then-candidate Lee Myung-bak took the lead in the 2007 presidential election, then Park Geun-hye in the 2012 presidential election, and then in the 2017 presidential election, Moon Jae-in.
There are exceptions, but it was the 2002 presidential election in which former President Roh Moo-hyun was elected.
At that time, Candidate Hoi-chang Lee won overwhelmingly first place, but about a month before the presidential election, Candidate Roh Moo-hyun succeeded in unifying with Candidate Chung Mong-joon and succeeded in turning the tide.
The unification of the opposition parties, TV debates, and the direction of the 2030 vote remain as variables for the rest of the period, but it is said that it is highly likely that the conflict will continue until the last minute.
Only big party candidates... ④ 'first TV debate' presidential election (?)
It is highly likely that the TV debate between Candidate Jae-myung Lee and Candidate Seok-yeol Yoon will be held on the 30th or 31st, and it is the first time that two major candidates in the presidential election have debated battles on TV separately. In the 2012 presidential election, then-Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye and Democratic United Party candidate Moon Jae-in had a head-to-head discussion, but it was inevitable when then-United Progressive Party candidate Lee Jung-hee resigned. The TV debate before the Sun holiday is not a legally obligatory discussion, but an invitational debate hosted by three terrestrial broadcasters, and it is not against the law to discuss only two candidates. The forums organized by the media are free in form and topic, and can be held at any time from one year before the election. A three-party or four-party debate is possible if the candidates agree. On the other hand, statutory mandatory debates hosted by the National Election Commission require all candidates who meet certain requirements to participate.
A strong question is being raised as to whether it is appropriate for only large bipartisan candidates to participate in the quantum TV debate. Candidates Ahn Cheol-soo and Shim Sang-jung are facing strong opposition. Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, whose approval ratings rose, first applied for an injunction to ban broadcasting, followed by the Justice Party today (20th). Candidate Cheol-Soo Ahn and Candidate Sang-Jeong Shim are blaming the two parties for collusion. Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, who has been on the offensive every day, said today (20th), "The rigging of debates between the two parties is against democracy, against the public sentiment, and against the existing case. He criticized it as 'the 'triangle debate' of interest, unfair debate, monopoly discussion, and unfavorable discussion." In the 2007 presidential election, the court accepts a request for an injunction to ban broadcasting from then-candidate Moon Kuk-hyun, who was excluded from the discussion panel invitations because his approval rating was less than 10%. The Justice Party also joined the offensive, saying, "The two candidates, Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-yeol, also evaded the special prosecutor, which is a judicial verification team for their suspicions, and the act of colluding even the TV debate, which is the public's verification body, and monopolizing the transmission of public goods is clearly arrogance and a deception of the people." I did.
What do media groups think of quantum debates? There are many critical views, but the Korea Broadcasting Journalists Association, the National Press Union, and the Journalists Association issued a statement on the 17th and said, "The bilateral TV debate, in which only large bipartisan candidates attend, is not only for minority party candidates but also for the rights of citizens with various political views. It is a serious unfair act that infringes, and it has been criticized as "the political tyranny of a huge bipartisan." There are also opinion polls suggesting that multilateral discussions are necessary. There are a lot of arguments and public opinions against face-to-face discussions. Can face-to-face discussions turn into multi-party discussions?
a piece of the day
This is a scene from a press conference held near Jogyesa Temple in Seoul.
At the 'National Monks Conference condemnation press conference' hosted by civic groups such as the Candlelight Citizens' Solidarity, attendees are holding up signboards opposing the monk's intervention in the election.
Tomorrow (21st), the Jogye Order decided to hold a monk's convention to call for the eradication of religious bias despite opposition from inside and outside the cult.