“America will not try alone” the Biden administration’s choice of the Renaissance Dam file .. Will it succeed where Trump has failed?

Since the administration of President Joe Biden, the veteran US diplomat Jeffrey Feltman, was named a presidential envoy to the Horn of Africa, hopes have realistically increased in Washington that a new diplomatic approach can be adopted that avoids the mistakes and failures of Washington’s relations with the countries of the region, especially Ethiopia, during the era of former President Donald Trump.

Ambassador Feltman's visit to the countries of the region, which coincides with a visit by two Democratic senators close to President Biden - Chris Koons from Delaware and Chris Fun Hollan from Maryland - represents a new American approach that differs from the approach taken by the previous administration to resolve the region’s crises, especially the Renaissance Dam crisis. .

Unlike Trump, Biden has not personally interfered in the negotiations, at least so far, at a time when his administration is searching for "sustainable solutions to address the interconnected political, security and humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa," according to a statement by the State Department.

Unlike Trump, Biden did not personally interfere in the Renaissance Dam negotiations (Reuters)

Coordination with partners

Unlike the Trump administration, which chose to work unilaterally in mediation between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the Renaissance Dam crisis, the Biden administration aims for collective action by coordinating with the concerned governments, the United Nations and the African Union.

The US State Department statement indicated that Ambassador Feltman will work to coordinate US policy in various parts of the region to address the political, security and humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa.

Cameron Hudson, a former CIA and White House official and Africa expert at the Atlantic Institute for the Island Net, spoke about Feltman's visit to the Horn of Africa.

He stressed that "it is clear that Washington is trying to show a level of diplomatic engagement that will enable it to influence developments in the region. It is also certain that Egypt and Sudan - close allies of Washington - do indeed welcome this step, and the challenge will be Ethiopia, which suffers from instability at home and in Its relationship with neighboring countries, and from an unnatural stage of severe tension in its relationship with Washington.

For his part, Professor Robert Loftis, a professor at Boston University and a former US ambassador to several African countries, considered that “the Biden administration has more chances for success compared to the Trump administration, because it is more likely to work with the African Union, relevant international organizations, and other countries concerned, and this contradicts what Done by the previous administration that worked alone. "

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Lovitz said, "It is also likely that Biden will be more willing to make the long-term effort to act as a mediator, not personal intervention as Trump has done, and he will work through a team that knows the region, hence the appointment of a highly respected diplomat such as the ambassador." Feltman has a wide welcome. "

Trump during his meeting on February 6, 2019 with the foreign ministers of Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on the Renaissance Dam crisis (communication sites)

Avoid Trump's mistakes

The statements of former President Donald Trump about the Renaissance Dam had negative effects on the Ethiopian position on US mediation, as Trump criticized Ethiopia for its construction of the dam on the Blue Nile, and stated that Egypt had “intentionally blown it up,” he said.

This prompted Ethiopia to question any US efforts to mediate between the three parties to the crisis, and the Ethiopian internal developments that resulted in unrest and the use of violence by Ethiopian forces have pushed Washington to take a strong stand against what it considered "practices of ethnic cleansing in the Tigray region."

The United States has already suspended development aid and security aid to Ethiopia, so its greatest influence at this moment may be the threat to impose sanctions on Addis Ababa, which Washington appears unwilling to do, because this threatens to undermine its diplomatic approach, which has only begun. Just now, according to Cameron Hudson's Al Jazeera Net.

Despite the Biden administration's emphasis on violations in the Tigray region, Ambassador Lovitz believes that Washington is aware that it must play a mediating role, as the conflict between two of the most important countries in Africa will have serious repercussions not only in the region, but on a much larger scale.

The Trump administration has seen this as well, which indicates that American interests are still generally similar across departments, and differences remain in the manner of dealing. Ambassador Lovitz added that "the United States is a friend of both Egypt and Ethiopia and is trying to build better relations with Sudan."

Washington's interests and credibility

Traditionally, the Horn of Africa has not been of great importance to the United States, but the spread of instability in that region and its impact on the security of the southern entrance to the Red Sea, in addition to the spread of terrorism due to instability in Somalia and Yemen, has prompted Washington to focus on this vital region in recent years.

Michael Giffen, director of the Africa Program at the Council on Foreign Relations, and a former ambassador to several African countries believes that "the Biden administration is working to reduce tensions in the Horn of Africa in general, because any major crisis in that region could have horrific human costs and threaten security and economic repercussions." The interests of the United States undermine the democratic progress that the people of the region demanded. "

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Geffen said, "Encouraging an agreement on the Renaissance Dam crisis through negotiation is an inevitable measure in the agenda of de-escalation in this region."

And with diplomatic realism, Ambassador Geffen assured Al Jazeera Net that "success is not guaranteed, but it is unlikely that the Biden administration will be drowned in the bureaucratic confusion and irresponsible and arrogant statements that characterized the failed approach of the Trump administration in dealing with the Renaissance Dam crisis."

For his part, Lovitz indicated that his country would not "try to use aid as a means of pressure, because much of the American aid is of a humanitarian nature in the case of Ethiopia and Sudan and is military in the case of Egypt, but this does not prevent Washington from contributing through the great experience it has from its experience in managing A number of rivers and the sharing of water flowing in their states in the American West and between it and the southern neighbor Mexico, and this could help calm Egyptian concerns and convince Ethiopia to responsibly manage the Renaissance Dam.