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January 14, 2021 The situation in Italy worsens, in the week from 6 to 12. The Gimbe Foundation notes "the increase in new cases and the rise in the curves of hospitalizations with symptoms and intensive care, both above the saturation threshold in half of the regions. still the deaths ".



This is the scenario that emerged from the independent monitoring of the Foundation, which considers, therefore, "risky to bet everything on the vaccine: an immediate and rigorous tightening is needed to avoid a year of difficult coexistence with the virus, with hospitals cyclically on the verge of collapse, tightening and loosening and an inexorable increase in deaths ".



The data of the week 6-12 January

Compared to the previous week, new cases increased to 121,644 from 114,132, + 6.6%, against a slight decrease in the positive / case ratio tested (29.5% versus 30.4%).

The currently positive cases are stable: 570,040 compared to the previous 569,161.

On the hospital front, there was a slight rise in patients with symptoms (23,712 against 23,395, + 3.4%) and in intensive care, 2,636 compared to 2,569 (+ 2.6%).

Deaths are still on the rise, 3,490 against 3,300 in the previous week (+ 5.8%).



Five variables, the proposal 

"In 10 Regions - says Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation - employment by Covid patients exceeds the threshold of 40% in the medical area and that of 30% in intensive care. Almost a year after outbreak of the pandemic in our country, we can no longer afford to chase the virus frantically ", underlines Cartabellotta, announcing that," on the basis of the best scientific evidence, the Gimbe Foundation is preparing a proposal for the 2021 management of the pandemic, integrated with certainties / uncertainties of the vaccination plan ". 



The proposal provides for "the continuous evaluation of five variables that affect the control of the pandemic: the impact of Covid-19 on health services, on prognosis, on the reduction of assistance for non-Covid patients; adherence of the population to individual anti-contagion measures; coverage vaccination; strategic goal of combating the pandemic (elimination, suppression, mitigation).



Do not rely only on vaccines

"In the first quarter of 2021 - explains Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services of the Gimbe Foundation - with a minimum vaccination coverage, we expect a high circulation of Sars-Cov-2, with worrying uncertainties about the new variants, and high impact of Covid-19 on health services.

Consequently, to achieve the goal of eliminating the virus, it is essential to rapidly implement the suppressive strategy, to significantly reduce the currently positive cases and flatten the epidemic curve ". In this way, with the arrival of summer and the progressive increase in vaccination coverage, the lower circulation of the virus would allow "the resumption of an efficient tracking activity to achieve the objective of progressive elimination".



"Considering the modest results obtained by the system of 'color' Regions - notes Cartabellotta - this represents the only way to maintain control of the epidemic until the end of the year, without relying exclusively on the vaccine.

Continuing with the mitigation strategies, it will be realistically impossible to resume effective tracking and the only hope will be to soon reach adequate vaccination coverage.

However, this means accepting the risk of an intermediate viral circulation - he warns - with serious repercussions on health and on the economy until next autumn ".