With less than a month before it to reach a post-Brexit deal with the Europeans and no guarantee of success, the British government on Monday (November 30) urged companies to hasten preparations for the major changes that will occur in any case.

On December 31 at 11 p.m. GMT, the transition period following the historic divorce, pronounced on January 31, will end.

The United Kingdom will then stop applying European rules and exit the single market.

After months of sluggish discussions, negotiations are still stumbling to arrive at the free trade agreement without quotas or hoped-for customs duties that would limit trade disruptions.

If a compromise is found, it still needs to be ratified by the respective Parliaments, making the next few days decisive.

"Whatever the outcome of our negotiations with the EU, there are definite changes that businesses must prepare for now," said Michael Gove, the minister responsible for coordinating government action.

"There's no time to lose".

Disturbances to be expected

The Minister in charge of Business, Alok Sharma, explained that he had sent letters to nearly five million of them warning them of the challenges ahead.

The government has also started to set up an operations center to control the movement of goods and people across the border.

The center, which will operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week, aims to provide real-time information allowing the authorities to react quickly to limit delays at the border.

"The changes in the way of doing business with Europe are likely to lead to short-term disruptions at the border," the British government admitted.

"However, with access to better information and intelligence than ever before, the government will be able to keep the flow of goods and people flowing and make our country more secure."

Risk of shock

In the event of a "no deal", trade between the United Kingdom and the EU will be governed by the rules of the World Trade Organization, synonymous with costly customs duties that can cause an economic shock.

Given the lack of time to prepare, monster truck traffic jams on the roads leading to ports, long queues at passport control, even temporary shortages of certain products are likely to occur.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he was ready for such an option and assured that it would not prevent the UK from prospering and forging beneficial deals with many countries around the world.

But even in the event of an agreement without tariffs or quotas, companies will be subject to new and time-consuming administrative procedures and new controls.

Negotiations still stumble

The negotiations, currently led in London by Michel Barnier and David Frost, are still stumbling over the guarantees demanded of the British in terms of competition, the way of settling disputes in the future agreement and the access of European fishermen to British waters.

On Sunday, British foreign minister Dominic Raab said the fishery remained "a major bone of contention", insisting that the UK must "have control of its waters".

According to European sources, Michel Barnier has proposed that the EU return 15 to 18% of the total European quotas fished in British waters and symmetrically recover the quotas fished by the British in the Atlantic and in the Bay of Biscay.

Scotland's desire for independence

"In just a month, we will be faced with a hard Brexit, either without a deal or with a narrow-minded deal," stormed the pro-independence Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon on Monday, whose territory voted overwhelmingly against leaving the EU.

"The short-term damage will be severe, but the long-term damage will be worse," she warned.

"We have to ask ourselves the question: Who do we trust to rebuild our economy, a Scottish government we elected or Boris Johnson's 'Brexiters' gang?"

Brexit, then the much criticized management of the coronavirus epidemic by London, fueled the desire for independence in Scotland, now in the majority in the polls.

With AFP

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