After I supported him in several international cases

Erdogan is on the path of tension in his country's relations with Germany and the European Union

  • Merkel has been a supporter of Erdogan in several international forums.

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Turkey's relations with Germany remained very normal, but they developed for the better during the era of the Chancellor, Angela Merkel, after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan became special treatment in the international arena, and the relations of the two countries developed in parallel with a significant increase in the volume of German-Turkish military and commercial cooperation .

However, the Merkel era is coming to an end, and a noticeable shift in tone appears within the Berlin political establishment towards Ankara.

This is why observers wonder whether the Turkish president will forever rely on Germany's special treatment.

Warm relationships

Turkey's relations with European countries in the past were volatile and unfriendly, but Ankara has long enjoyed warm and stable strategic relations with one European country, Germany.

The strong Turkish-German relations go back more than 100 years, when the two countries stood side by side in the fighting, during World War I and during World War II, and the Turkish President at the time, Ismet Inönü, signed a friendship agreement with Nazi Germany.

Turkey was only forced to abandon the deal when pressure mounted on Ankara in 1945 - a few months before the end of the war.

In 1961, Germany and Turkey signed an agreement to create a Turkish Workers' Host Program to fill the shortage of unskilled workers in Germany's booming economy.

Today, about four million people of Turkish origin live in Germany, which is considered one of the largest immigrant communities in Germany.

Merkel's rise to power, 15 years ago, witnessed an unprecedented, strong push forward in bilateral relations, which coincided with Erdogan's assumption of the premiership of Turkey in 2003, and then its presidency after the regime was transformed into a presidential system, and after he had continued as president since 2014.

Political partnership

Merkel and Erdogan established a political partnership in the international arena, to the extent that Merkel considered him an essential and distinguished ally.

And when Ankara escalated its dispute with Greece over gas stocks in the Mediterranean, Germany mediated between Turkey and its European Union counterparts Greece and Cyprus.

This mediation is considered a rare event because a country in the European Union mediates with two member states to resolve a dispute with a non-member state.

And during the recent clashes in Nagorno Karabakh, Berlin's condemnation was lackluster over Erdogan's provocative stance.

Indeed, Merkel created a semblance of a diplomatic umbrella for Erdogan within the European Union, hoping to eventually win the co-presidency of the Minsk Group.

Even when Erdogan invaded northern Syria, Merkel did nothing tangible to stop him from continuing to do so.

In fact, it tacitly supported this step, justifying it as a way to curb the flow of refugees into Europe.

Its logic was that such an influx would not occur if Erdogan was able to control the areas of the so-called "safe havens" for the Syrians.

In terms of numbers, the value of bilateral trade between Turkey and Germany reached 30.4 billion euros in 2019, and the Germans represent one of the largest societies that do business in Ankara, as more than 7,500 German companies operate in Turkey, including the EuropeanBype GMPH, which is The company that supplied the tubes to Terecostream.

At the height of the European migrant crisis in 2015, when Erdogan allowed the passage of nearly a million refugees to Germany, the German car company, Volkswagen, alone, sold more than 107,400 units to Turkey, the highest number since 2002, which coincides with the year that won In which Erdogan legislative elections.

Another German car giant, Mercedes, which owns a bus production facility in Istanbul, is operating at full capacity in Turkey as well.

The level of cooperation in the arms trade has been significant, too, in recent years, as Ankara is now the world's leading importer of German arms.

Last year, Turkey imported more than a quarter of a billion euros worth of weapons from Germany, the highest number since 2005, when Merkel came to power.

Germany plays another important role, in particular, in Turkey's drone program, which has spearheaded the Turkish army with its battles in Libya, Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh.

The unmanned missile warheads were developed by the German arms manufacturer, TDW.

In an official German report, the German government admitted that it had granted 33 permits to Turkey to export goods that were classified as suitable for use on military drones.

The missiles themselves were manufactured by the Turkish state-owned company Roketsan, which is closely related to the Erdogan family.

The scale is in favor of Berlin

It is not just German citizens who form the basis of Germany's influence in Turkey.

The mutual relations remained somewhat deep, even if the balance was clearly tilted in favor of Berlin, and the huge Turkish diaspora in Germany is considered the fourth largest electoral district in Turkey (1.5 million German Turks are entitled to vote in the Turkish elections, and more than two-thirds of them voted for Erdogan in the last elections. ).

The Turkish Islamic Union for Religious Affairs is Erdogan's most important tool, as it runs about 3,000 mosques, which make up roughly a third of the mosques in Germany.

This union receives hundreds of thousands of euros from the German government for funding, and Germany runs the largest mosque.

Erdoan personally attended the opening ceremony in Cologne in 2018.

Raouf Bakker is a journalist and researcher with experience in Europe and the Middle East

Merkel and Erdogan have established a political partnership on the international stage, to the extent that Merkel considers him an essential and distinguished ally.

While German-Turkish relations have depended largely on the relationship between Erdogan and Merkel, such a relationship will not last indefinitely.

Merkel will leave office exactly a year from now.

Already a noticeable shift has begun in the rhetoric of the Berlin political establishment toward Ankara, and this could lead to a change in German policy - especially if Erdogan continues to provoke the Germans with disputes around the world.

Erdogan-Merkel ... a relationship that will not last

While German-Turkish relations have depended largely on the relationship between Erdogan and Merkel, such a relationship will not last indefinitely.

Merkel will leave office exactly a year from now.

Already a noticeable shift has begun in the rhetoric of the Berlin political establishment toward Ankara, and this could lead to a change in German policy - especially if Erdogan continues to provoke the Germans with disputes around the world.

Merkel’s strategy on Erdogan represents a dangerous message that he can act as he pleases in the international arena without consequences - and more than that, he may believe that Germany, and with it Europe, could be subject to blackmail from him.

Merkel had brokered a deal between Turkey and the European Union on stopping the flow of migrants to the European Union in 2016, an agreement agreed by Ankara in exchange for money.

It is not Erdogan's political adventures that will ultimately cost him internally and externally, but also the faltering Turkish economy and the free collapse of the Turkish lira.

Turkey's financial problems extend beyond Germany's ability to help it, even as Merkel’s efforts to extend a helping hand to Erdogan before she withdraws from politics.

Merkel's last attempt to save her favorite ally Erdogan is to try to amend the federal customs agreement between the European Union and Turkey, to give Ankara more facilities and economic benefits.

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