How to plan 300 million people to provide for the elderly during the 14th Five-Year Plan
The impact of aging and declining birthrate on our society is rapidly emerging.
With the first generation of only-child parents entering the ranks of middle-aged elderly, my country will usher in a wave of elderly care during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
From October 26th to 29th, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee was held in Beijing.
The meeting will deliberate the CPC Central Committee’s proposal on formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the 2035 Long-Term Goal, and draw up a blueprint for China’s development in the next 5 or 15 years.
The Ministry of Civil Affairs predicts that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the country's elderly population will exceed 300 million, and my country will move from mild to moderate aging.
How to take good care of these elderly people so that they can enjoy their twilight years is an important part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" under development.
Zhu Yaoyin, vice president of the China Association of Aging, stated at the opening ceremony of the Taikang Home Hangzhou Daqinggu Elderly Care Community on the Double Ninth Festival that the development of healthy elderly care is not only an important task of the "14th Five-Year Plan", but is also bound to implement the country's "14th Five-Year Plan" The overall strategic layout of the company is crucial.
Liu Guangjun, deputy director of the Employment and Social Security Research Center of Tsinghua University, believes that my country’s aging rate is too fast. 76% of the elderly care for the elderly. The supply of medical resources and rehabilitation care resources cannot keep up with the increase in the number of elderly people. The idea of combining nursing should shift from the original disease management to extending the healthy period of the elderly, and guide the elderly to take the initiative to put health management forward.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the nationwide elderly population will exceed 300 million
Li Banghua, deputy director of the Department of Elderly Care Services of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, recently stated that according to relevant predictions, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the nation's elderly population will exceed 300 million, and it will move from mild to moderate aging.
According to the analysis of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, in 5 to 10 years, the first generation of only-child parents in the country will enter the middle and senior ages. my country will usher in a wave of elderly care, and elderly care services will face greater challenges and tests.
According to the aging schedule, 7% to 14% of the total population of 65 years of age or older means entering an aging society. If it accounts for 14% to 21%, it means a moderately aging society. If it accounts for more than 21%, it means pure Severely aging society.
Chen Dongsheng, the founder, chairman and CEO of Taikang Insurance Group, said that the number of people over 65 in China currently accounts for 12.7%, which is close to a moderately aging society. It is unexpected that China has entered an aging society so fast. We It is also unexpected that such a lack of preparation for an aging society.
The era of longevity has arrived.
Data released by the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau on October 25 showed that the number of centenarians in Shanghai exceeded 3,000 for the first time.
Since 1953, the number of centenarians in Shanghai has increased from 1 to 1,000 in 58 years; from 1,000 to 2,000 in 6 years; from 2,000 to 3,000 in only 3 years.
From 2000 to 2019, the population of 100-year-olds in Shanghai increased by 7.9 times, with an average annual growth rate of 12.2%.
Although old people live longer and longer, their quality of life needs to be improved.
According to data from the National Health Commission, the average life expectancy of Chinese residents in 2018 is 77 years, but the healthy life expectancy is only 68.7 years, with an average illness period of 8.3 years.
The era of longevity poses new challenges to the supply and distribution of resources in the entire society.
Liu Guangjun said that although my country has built many hospitals in recent years, per capita medical rehabilitation resources are still very scarce. For example, according to international standards, there should be 50 professionals per 100,000 people, while China has only 3.6. The growth rate of the elderly is faster than the supply. Speed, this is the problem in our country.
Chen Dongsheng said that China’s aging society is coming fast, and the challenges and pressures of getting old before getting rich are unprecedented in human history. When South Korea and Japan entered the aging society, the per capita GDP was between 21,000 and 27,000 US dollars. GDP per capita has just passed 10,000 US dollars, but it is already close to a moderately aging society.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on healthy and elderly care
Li Banghua said that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's elderly population growth curve is relatively flat, and the economy and society continue to develop. It is a valuable window period for actively responding to the aging population and preparing for elderly care services.
The Ministry of Civil Affairs initiated the preparation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" plan for elderly care services in the first half of last year. The preliminary special studies have been completed, and the relevant departments are now discussing the contents of the plan in depth.
Survey data from the Committee on Aging shows that more than 10% of the elderly have incontinence, and 15.2% of the elderly need nursing care.
However, spouses currently take care of the elderly mainly, accounting for 43.5%, sons 28.7%, daughters 10.6%, and a small number of family nanny, accounting for 2.9%, and only 1.1 of those who use professional medical care or professional elderly care. %.
Zhu Yaoyin said that two-thirds of the remaining life of the 253 million elderly over 60 years old are living with illnesses, but the current supply of the elderly medical service system is generally insufficient. We must vigorously develop socialized medical care. The combined service has changed the current situation of the apparent imbalance between supply and demand.
Among the seven major areas of the "14th Five-Year Plan" that Guotai Junan Research Report is optimistic about, two are related to health and elderly care, namely population structure, medical consumption and elderly care services. The research report believes that these two areas will generate obvious demand.
The research report believes that my country's demographic structure will undergo profound changes, and per capita income will be close to the level of high-income countries. The increase in consumption rate and consumption upgrade will become more obvious, and medical consumption will also reach a new level.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, there will be great demand for old-age service social insurance, standardized old-age service, community old-age care, home care, old-age service informatization construction, and old-age medical equipment.
Liu Tingjun, President of Taikang Insurance Group, said that the combination of medical care and elderly care is a brand-new model for facing changes in the disease spectrum in the era of longevity.
In the past, the entire health supply system was centered on hospitals, but the aging population faced the transition from acute-stage diseases to chronic-stage diseases, such as diabetes, hypertension, respiratory system, and mental illness.
The care model for these chronic diseases should not require elderly people to go to the hospital, but the community where they live to provide these care services. This is the biggest change.
"The combination of medical and elderly care, to be precise, is an elderly care community that combines elderly care (old care) with health care (rehabilitation). This is a long-term strategic solution to the challenge of chronic diseases in the era of longevity." Liu Tingjun said.
Yang Yansui, director of the Employment and Social Security Research Center of Tsinghua University, believes that the real combination of medical care and care is not to provide for the elderly in hospitals or nursing homes for medical care, but to provide chronic disease management and health management for middle-aged and elderly people, as well as the various care needed by the elderly All are convenient and accessible, this is the combination of medical care and nursing.
Local governments actively join hands with social capital to cope with aging
Zhu Yaoyin said that since last year, high-level officials have asked the Aging Committee to find out about the aging industry.
The Commission on Aging conducted surveys and surveys on my country’s insurance funds, bank funds, large state-owned enterprises, and real estate companies’ participation in the pension business.
In the face of rapid aging, local governments have deployed in the elderly care industry one after another, enthusiastically extending an olive branch to the social capital of medical and nursing care. The rapid implementation of Taikang House in recent years across the country is a microcosm.
At present, Taikang Home Elderly Community has covered 20 key cities in the core areas of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Southwest, and China.
Taking Hangzhou as an example, at the opening ceremony of the Daqing Valley Elderly Community, Taikang signed a cooperation agreement with the Xihu District of Hangzhou to finalize the location of the second Elderly Community.
At the same time, Taikang also signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Xihu Urban Investment Group under the Xihu District Government to integrate the medical and healthcare industry with urban renewal and upgrade, new town construction, industrial supporting upgrades, and revitalization of state-owned assets. The city has launched a multi-dimensional strategic cooperation in the big health industry.
Liu Guangjun said that in response to the aging of the population, it is not enough to rely on the efforts of the government and enterprises. Active aging must be advocated, and the supply of medical resources and rehabilitation care resources must not be relied on. Instead, the initiative of the elderly must be used and health management must To extend the health of the elderly.
Zhu Yaoyin suggested that for individuals, it is necessary to earnestly strengthen preparations for the elderly throughout the life cycle.
On the one hand, it is psychological and spiritual preparation, and the other more important is the reserve of material wealth.
In addition, the entire society must also reserve wealth to prepare for future retirement.
Author: Guo Jinhui