Nagorno Karabakh, the tinderbox of the Caucasus that measures Russia and Turkey

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The new military escalation through the Nagorno Karabakh enclave is the bloodiest since 2016. Both sides say the other is firing heavy artillery, while fears for the stability of the southern Caucasus return.

What is Nagorno Karabakh?

It is an Armenian-majority enclave within Azerbaijan that has been out of the control of Baku (the Azerbaijani capital) for decades.

The

is a de facto independent republic, but it exists thanks to Armenian backing.

About 150,000 people live.

Why do Armenia and Azerbaijan dispute that territory?

Between 1918 and 1920, at the end of the First World War, both Armenia and Azerbaijan gained their independence from the Russian Empire.

There the problem arose of who would get that territory, formally within Azerbaijan but already then with a population that was considered mostly Armenian.

, because they stopped being independent countries.

Moscow gave the territory to Azerbaijan in 1921, and established the

in 1923, always as part of the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan.

The conflict remained dormant but already in the last years of the USSR - with the opening of Mikhail Gorbachev - it began to awaken.

How did the violence start?

The decline and collapse of the Soviet Union was a major factor that triggered the explosion of violence.

In those years the

gained strength

, which in turn triggered the same process in Azerbaijan.

The Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh claimed their integration into Armenia and thousands of Azerbaijanis left the region.

The war lasted until May 1994 (it cost 30,000 lives), when Armenia and Azerbaijan finally signed a ceasefire, the

.

What has happened now between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

New clashes broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan on Sunday, right in the disputed separatist region.

These clashes in the Nagorno-Karabakh territory are the most serious since 2016, with reports of

(at least 68, although Baku hides part of its casualties) and hundreds of wounded.

The Armenian ambassador in Moscow claims that Turkey had sent around 4,000 fighters from northern Syria to Azerbaijan and that they were already fighting there, but Baku denies this.

Nagorno Karabakh said yesterday that it had regained part of the territory whose control it had lost on Sunday.

According to his version,

.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said that Armenian forces were shelling the city of Terter.

Baku reported seven civilians killed, including an Azerbaijani family of six.

And Nagorno Karabakh, of two civilians killed, according to AFP.

What is the role of Russia?

Russia wants to become an arbitrator, but it is also a supplier of arms to both and a theoretical military ally of Armenia.

It was Moscow that mediated the ceasefire in May 1994. It also helped end

, an escalation of war that killed at least 110 people.

At the same time

: combat vehicles, missile launchers and also ammunition.

But Armenia is more deeply within Moscow's orbit as a member of the Russian-led regional economic and military blocs (CSTO and Eurasian Economic Union), while Azerbaijan is not.

, but in this confrontation it has only proposed itself as a mediator.

Some observers see this as Vladimir Putin's punishment of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Why has a solution not been achieved in these years?

The 1994 ceasefire froze the conflict for 22 years.

In this period, the

, (a mediation platform created by the OSCE) tried to find a peace agreement.

The mediation team is made up of: Russia, the United States and France, which represents the European position.

The main reason for the failure is that

.

Some analysts have criticized the interests of Russia, which benefits more from the current situation than from any other realistic scenario: the

is the most important thing for Moscow, but also the energy infrastructures that cross the area to unite the sea Caspian with the EU.

How important is Turkey's support for Azerbaijan?

The Turkish Government officially supports Azerbaijan and its claims on the Nagorno Karabakh region.

Ankara's relations with Yerevan were disrupted when Armenians occupied Azerbaijani districts in 1993, and the border has been closed since then.

Since 2011,

.

In part it is a political strategy of domestic consumption by the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but neither should

ignored

: more influence in the Caucasus and more energy independence from Russia, a plan that interests Baku as well.

Turkey is a member of NATO, this gives it security guarantees in this conflict but also leaves few options for its participation in a war there.

Why has there been new fighting in recent years?

The 'tie' between the military forces of Azerbaijan and Armenia is no longer real.

Thanks to its energy resources,

, ensuring a superiority on the battlefield over the past.

In Azerbaijani politics there is less desire for compromise and a lot of exhaustion for not having achieved through negotiation any progress towards the recovery of that territory.

Two decades have passed.

What historical implications face both peoples?

The clashes have sparked a wave of diplomacy to defuse the

.

But the wounds are deep.

During the period of conquest of the Ottoman Empire, the Armenians were persecuted by the Turks on several occasions.

The most notorious, the

.

It is a very painful matter for the Armenians that at the same time enrages not only the Turks, but the Azerbaijanis themselves.

Whose territory is that really?

The Government of Armenia in the early 1990s officially claimed the Nagorno-Karabakh region as part of its territory.

But since 1998 he has decided to support the

, thus gaining international support for his cause while exercising his role as protector of the Armenians living in the area, and assuming their representation.

Baku, of course, does not adhere to the principle of self-determination but to that of

, despite the fact that the area does not represent more than 30% of its energy resources.

For the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, it is a matter of principle, but also part of a political mortgage to be respected inside and outside the country.

What position does Iran take?

Tehran supports the position of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

There is competition between Iran and Turkey for control or leadership of Muslims in the South Caucasus.

But

because of the list of sanctions it suffers, since it has no room for maneuver.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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