As RIA Novosti reports, the authors of the work are Denis Antonets, an employee of the Vector Center, an employee of the Federal State Institution of Health of the Russian Federation, Microbe, Rospotrebnadzor, Mikhail Pospelov, an employee of the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, Antonina Ploskireva, and Vyacheslav Smolensky, the deputy head of the department.
According to their forecasts, against the background of an increase in business activity, an exit from the self-isolation regime, the removal of restrictions on the work of catering and trade enterprises, the beginning of the school year and the end of the vacation period, there is a possibility of a new wave of the disease.
Scientists modeled two scenarios: an optimistic one implies a continuation of the trend towards a decrease in the growth rate, a negative one - the second wave of the epidemic, while September 14 was named as a conditional date for its start.
With the development of events according to the first option, about 1.34 million cases of infection are expected on November 30, of which about 23 thousand are lethal.
According to the second option, more than 1.632 million cases of the disease will be recorded, including over 27 thousand deaths.
Earlier, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin expressed confidence that the final victory over the coronavirus infection would come no later than six months later.