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Washington is for the sake of losing a battle in the United Nations Security Council. But he may not lose his war, and that will cost the world a new scenario of more tension with Iran. Repeated attempts by the United States to extend sine die an embargo on Tehran's arms purchases , which should expire this October, is driving its partners upside down and the 2015 nuclear deal on the brink of bankruptcy.

According to the pact, this October 18 the arms embargo on Iran expires . Donald Trump is determined not to allow it to happen but, paradoxically, with his own decision to withdraw from the atomic deal, in 2017, he blocked the main administrative route to achieve his goal. Thus, only with a new resolution , which the US intends to put to a vote this week in the UN Security Council, could it achieve its goal. But diplomatic sources predict failure .

The three European signatories of the atomic pact , even reluctant that Iran can arm itself with foreign material - one of the arguments that Tehran argues is that the West sells weapons to its Saudi rival - have not been convinced by warnings such as that of the Secretary of State of Trump, Mike Pompeo, who mentioned the possibility that Iran could launch planes bought from Russia against "countries" like "Rome." Russians and Chinese, more receptive to Iran and with the right to veto, have opposed prolonging the embargo .

The group of signatories known as E3 - France, the United Kingdom and Germany - knows that the cost of satisfying all of Trump's claims could lead Iran to completely abandon the atomic pact , accusing the rest of breaching all its commitments. It would be the culmination of his waiver of commitments, undertaken and implemented gradually in response to the reimposition of US sanctions and the lack of European measures to effectively circumvent them.

Although, according to sources close to the deliberations, intermediate formulas have been considered to satisfy the US president without breaking the rope with Iran , at the moment there is no fixed solution. "In general, we should support the arms embargo, but we do not like some of the unilateral sanctions that the US is imposing on Iran," a European diplomat told The Hill .

On Tuesday afternoon, while the White House motion for a resolution was still awaited, the Iranian Foreign spokesman came out to deny growing rumors, arising in local media, that an understanding had been reached about the embargo, which would enter at stake the lifting of certain sanctions. For his part, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced in the framework of a meeting with his German counterpart a "proposal" to "resume cooperation" between signatories .

Iran is hit by economic problems stemming from its inadequacies in economic governance. In a scenario without sanctions, the flow of oil dividends would make up for such deficiencies but, due to the US economic punishment with European collusion , not only are the popular classes suffering the financial onslaught more than anyone else; more and more voices, in a political field increasingly dominated by critics of the West , call for drastic measures against the nuclear pact.

Still, Tehran has for the moment adopted what it defines as "strategic patience . " Within the country, all kinds of initiatives have been launched to optimize economic management, including a judicial offensive against corruption. At the same time, regional pressure has eased moderately. Most observers agree that the Iranians give themselves until the US elections to move the next tile, knowing that Joe Biden could change the game.

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