Global oil supplies are expected to shrink due to the Corona health crisis and lower production by the European Union's largest oil suppliers, particularly Russia, Algeria and Angola, which will put a strain on the old continent.

This is what French newspaper Le Monde suggested in an article by writer Nabil Wakim, who said that a report published by the "Shift Project" - chaired by Chancellor Jean-Marc Jankovichi - made it clear that recent turmoil in the oil market could expose black gold supplies to the European Union to difficulties in The next ten years.

The report, published last Tuesday, says that half of the producing countries that supply the old continent with oil will become scarce in the coming years, and director of the Research Center and author of a book on oil, Matthew Ozano, says, "It appears that the resources of Russia and all the former Soviet countries that supply Europe with more than 40% of Its oil needs have started to decrease since 2019, and Africa, which supplies it with more than 10%, will also see a similar decrease from here until 2030. "

The Shift Project collected data from one of the leading oil and gas companies, Restar Energy in Norway, and a detailed analysis of these unpublished figures showed that the curve drawn by the International Energy Agency since 2018 tends to increase, as it warned at the time that oil would run out in 2025 If the major producers do not make large investments.

The writer pointed out that the discoveries of conventional oil - as exploited in Saudi Arabia or Russia - have remained at their lowest levels for three decades, however the current fields are declining slowly, not exceeding three or four million barrels per day around the world, which is equivalent to 4 % Of the planet’s consumption.

This is due to the revolution of unconventional oils that occurred in recent years, such as oil shale in North America or oil sands in Alberta, Canada, which secured new oil resources in the world, after the United States in 2018 produced 12 million barrels per day.

Europe must significantly reduce its dependence on black gold (Reuters)

Cheap winter oil

However, the Corona crisis rocked this situation, and caused a historical decline in the price of black gold, which made companies in this sector significantly reduce investment in exploration and production, which could lead to a rapidly shrinking supply.

The extreme volatility of oil prices in recent years has made the major companies in the sector shy, as Total CEO Patrick Bojan told Le Monde newspaper that "our exploration budget, which has decreased over the past five years, will not be activated until we can produce cheap oil." This cheap oil has become increasingly scarce, in what the Shift Project called the "cheap winter oil."

The writer asked why Europe is affected by this matter more than the rest of the world, explaining that the old continent is still the first importer of oil in front of China, so that the 27 European Union countries import more than 13 million barrels per day, and with the increasing demand for oil in Africa and Southeast Asia, he says Matteo Ozano "The cake that will be shared will be smaller, especially since China has prepared a real oil strategy to secure its supplies."

The director of the research center said that oil consumption has decreased slightly in Europe since 2010 thanks to advances in energy efficiency and environmental policies, but this curve is not enough, and he warned that "the failure of these climate policies may make mankind suffer from an increasing lack of access to crude oil." .

Consequently, the report calls on Europe to significantly reduce its dependence on black gold, and Ozano asks it to "reduce consumption by 5% because the current decrease of 0.5% annually is not sufficient."

For its part, Restad agency published its annual report in mid-June, and concluded that the peak of oil is approaching, and that it may come before 2030, and may reach in 2027 or 2028, and therefore it is estimated that the prices of this resource will rise continuously over the next few years. .