Failure to comply with the Paris agreement could cost USD 600 trillion - France 24

Paris (AFP)

Failure to meet the targets of the Paris agreement on global warming could cost up to $ 600 trillion by the end of the century, according to a study published Tuesday.

The agreement signed in 2015 displays the objective of containing global warming "significantly below 2 ° C compared to pre-industrial levels" and if possible at 1.5 ° C, countries committing to "national contributions" ( NDC) to be renewed every five years.

However, the current NDCs - which were to be revised during COP 26 in November in Glasgow, postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic - place the planet on the trajectory of global warming from 3 ° C to 4 ° C here 2100, according to UN experts.

The study, published in Nature Communications, studies the costs (damage linked to climatic events for example) as well as investments (low-carbon technologies for example) to assess the theoretical losses or gains for the world economy according to different scenarios.

Failure to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement could thus cost between 126,000 and 616,000 billion dollars, while the world economy could see gains of 336,000 to 422,000 billion by respecting the objectives of 2 ° C or 1.5 ° C respectively.

And non-compliance with the current NDCs, while Donald Trump's United States must withdraw from the Paris agreement this fall, could mean losses ranging from 150,000 to 790,000 billion.

Conversely, balancing losses and revenues would require investments between 18,000 and 113,000 billion dollars, of which more than 90% from the G20 countries, according to the study.

"Implementing a strategy to preserve yourself needs to be aware of the seriousness of global warming to allow advances in low-carbon technologies," said Biying Yu, of the Beijing Institute of Technology, lead author of the study, noting that countries generally prioritize short-term gains over climate investment.

"Without these investments, emissions (of greenhouse gases) cannot be reduced, and climate damage will be more likely to occur, resulting in immense economic losses. If countries are aware that they will incur these losses if they do not reduce their emissions, will they be more rational in their choices, strengthening their response to climate change? ", questions the researcher.

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