A French website asks: Will Sisi overcome the Corona virus crisis and the economic shocks?

As the army's monopoly over the economy worsens, Egypt finds itself facing new challenges, among them a huge debt that is difficult to pay off day after day, and the collapse of tourism due to the Corona virus. It also appears that the late quarantine measures will not be able to stop the epidemic.

This was the prelude to an article written by Jean-Pierre Sereni on the French news website, "Orient 21", in which he considered that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi was always threatened by the political and social repercussions of his destructive and inconsistent economic and financial policy, and now to this is added the Corona virus, which infected hundreds of Egyptians , And killed a number of them.

Sereni believes that the plan announced by the Egyptian authorities to combat the crisis is insufficient, and indicates in this regard that what increases the challenges to Sisi are the financial difficulties faced by the Al Saud family, which is the main Arab support for Sisi, according to the writer's expression.

32.5% below the poverty line

The writer begins by reviewing the reality of the Egyptian economy, indicating that it appears at first glance sound and healthy, with a growth rate of about 5%, as foreign exchange reserves have recently risen, and a kind of recovery followed a loan of $ 12 billion from the International Monetary Fund, but Egypt has committed itself to With several harsh measures, including reducing the value of the Egyptian pound in half, and reducing support for the poor, which led to an increase in the poverty rate to more than 32% of the population, of more than one hundred million people.

The writer says that Sisi has searched since the time he came to power for financial support, which came in the first phase of the "oil kingdoms of the Gulf", which was keen to help the new regime that rid it of the archenemy (in reference to the Muslim Brotherhood and President Mohamed Morsi, who was turned against Sisi in July 2013 when he was defense minister at the time).

Gulf assistance consisted of government loans, foreign currency deposits in local banks, and private and public real estate investments. However, all this did not result in the stabilization of the economy, and the International Monetary Fund came after several loans over four years (2016-2019).

Debt swallows the returns

After this review, the article "Lorient 21" wonders whether the Egyptian economy has been hard enough to cope with such debts? He replies that if the crisis worsens, the foreign exchange reserves of $ 45 billion will give Sisi only a short truce, and after that - long or short - he will have to face the deadlines for repaying the loans.

The writer explains here that the Egyptian economy depends on several basic pillars: the financial transfers sent by ten million Egyptians working abroad, transit fees in the Suez Canal, tourism revenues, and aid to Western countries led by the United States, which is the first military ally of Egypt, and finally natural gas that Egypt discovered large quantities of it recently.

According to the writer, Egypt's revenues in 2019 show that about thirty billion dollars came from remittances from workers abroad, six billion from the channel's revenues, and 14 billion from tourism, while foreign aid is declining, while gas revenues increase, but it is unstable.

The writer goes on to clarify the state of the Egyptian economy, and he says that the most prominent problems are that Egypt's exports cover only a third of its imports, and that the catastrophic failure of the International Monetary Fund plan represented in not helping Egypt increase the volume of its exports, which did not exceed six billion dollars, compared to imports worth 18 billion dollars. .

He adds that the opinions of the IMF experts are different from the army leaders who rule Egypt. Experts recommend a new wave of reforms focused on supporting the private sector, while the army does not care about civilians, and it is preferable to build a new capital in the heart of the desert at an unknown cost, with estimates ranging between fifty and three hundred billion dollars. .

Unprecedented military activity

The French website indicates that the military regime - authoritarian in nature - does not consider civilian partners, but rather has, at the latest, clients in the ranks of state agents, whose loyalty to the president is based on the advantages it distributes.

The spoilers of the era of former President Hosni Mubarak - those who benefited from privatization two decades ago - have left prison, but today they play no role, and military companies have compensated them. In one of the major hospitals in Cairo, several service companies dealing with patients were expelled overnight and were replaced by a military company.

Jean-Pierre Sereni summarizes his idea by indicating that the fever of the military's economic activity is unprecedented, and extends to new sectors such as importing medicines, building highways, and real estate and major projects - such as the New Suez Canal - are preferred options for officers, who are led by national pride more than the economic account .

The writer recounts that the military decided at the last minute to place two pedestrian bridges over a large road that will pass over the popular Cairo neighborhoods and the River Nile, to connect the city with the new capital without any light signal. The aim of this project was only to enter the Guinness Book of Records, and to anticipate a major Turkish company seeking a similar giant project.

The article confirms that the sectors that concern the Egyptian army do not move a finger of the Egyptian bourgeoisie; they do not buy apartments in the new cities that were built in the heart of the desert thirty years ago, and they will no doubt also refrain from buying real estate in "New Dubai".

The article concludes by questioning whether the military can influence the private sector, and notes that Sisi recently announced his intention to list ten companies affiliated with the army on the stock exchange, but the writer answers that it requires a minimum level of transparency in the accounts, which is an uncommon practice for a large part of officials Egyptians, military or civilian.