• Trump signs a record-breaking tax bazooka for the US
  • Coronavirus, IMF: "We have already entered a recession as or worse than 2008"
  • OECD: every month of lockdown it loses two points of GDP
  • All the lists yield, the spread is rising

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March 28, 2020 New heavy drop on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones loses 4.12%. Oil is worse than closing below $ 22 a barrel. An emblematic case of the coronavirus crisis: with the expected free fall of world demand, with air transport stopped and more than a billion and a half people forced home. Then there are the collapse in consumer confidence in March which has fallen to its lowest level since 2009 and S&P estimates, which sees the States already in recession with a GDP drop of 12.7% in the second quarter. The expected impact on American public finances is heavy: William Foster of Moody's predicts a federal deficit of 10-12%, compared to 4.9% of pre-coronavirus GDP estimated by the Congressional budget office. Fitch predicts an even higher deficit, at 13%. These are numbers higher than those of the previous post-World War II record established in 2009, when it was 9.8% of GDP.

Investors seem more concerned about the spread of coronavirus in the United States, which now exceeds 100,000 cases than reassured by the 2,000 billion dollar aid plan for the American economy signed by Donald Trump. Trump's plan is a powerful weapon that adds to the Fed's measures, "says Kristalina Georgieva, director general of the International Monetary Fund. A weapon that is good for Americans and the rest of the world, he adds without hiding the seriousness of the situation globally. The Fund - says Georgieva - has already received requests for help from 80 countries and estimates the financial needs of emerging economies at least $ 2,500 billion. The world is in recession, he adds, it could be like or worse than 2009. Words echoed by the OECD's call to hurry and spend now to avoid tragic consequences, considering that global GDP loses two percentage points for each month of containment measures.

The alarms launched by the two international organizations add to the thrilling economic data coming from the two sides of the Atlantic and the impasse on the 'coronabond'. The result was a new thump of the European stock exchanges, London black jersey down 5.25%, Piazza Affari lost 3.15% weighed down by the banks and the spread increased to 180. On the session in Milan they arrive like a cold shower also Istat data and Prometeia estimates.

According to estimates by the National Statistical Institute, business and consumer confidence in March recorded a "sharp decrease" to values ​​that had not been seen since June 2013 and January 2015. Prometeia instead expects a contraction in the Italian economy of 6, 5% in 2020 with a deficit of 6.6% of GDP and a debt of 150%. However, 2021 will be the year of the rebound, albeit gradual: GDP will rise by 3.3% next year and then mark a + 1.2% in 2022.