It can go so fast: Only a quarter of a year ago, the sunshine was shining in the travel industry, now suddenly disillusionment prevails. Reasons include the upcoming Brexit, bankruptcies of airlines and a stagnant economy. Opinion polls actually see the desire to travel of the Germans at record levels; but this has not yet been reflected in the bookings.
The travel agencies are currently very quiet - too quiet. After a brilliant start last fall, when many families took the high early-bird discounts and fixed their summer vacation in 2019 early, there is now a hangover: by four percent, sales in travel agencies already fell in December behind the previous year. In January, it was even seven percent. Many bookings were due to the ongoing cruise boom.
Downhill it was mainly with the Canary Islands - and with Mallorca . Last year, the Balearic government had to slow down in order not to overheat the market. She did it by doubling the tourist tax "Ecotasa". Now the hoteliers nervously wait for summer bookings, on a broad front they have extended the early bookings. In vain, because many guests have dodged on Turkey - for example, on Antalya, Alanya, Side.
The Turkish beaches with their low-priced all-inclusive hotels are currently in demand as long as not and shine with high growth rates. After five years of doldrums, the pendulum between the western and eastern Mediterranean swings quite clearly in the eastern direction. This assessment of many tourism experts is not quite true: Greece is also in a booking hole. At the service provider Traveltainment, which provides the technology of most online travel agencies, Crete is about 20 percent below the previous year.
This is particularly felt by the very large travel groups. TUI and Thomas Cook, both traditionally strong in Spain and Greece, have already shocked their shareholders with profit warnings. Meanwhile, the industry fourth FTI is pleased about a "double-digit plus", also Schauinsland has "overall growth". Both providers are strong in Turkey and Egypt , the current trend targets.
Almost a quarter books vacation packages
All in all, the package trip, which has often been declared dead, is still in demand: according to the travel analysis in 2019, 23 percent of Germans plan an organizer trip, which is even one percent more than a year ago.
The current trend targets could also play their part in this. Because unlike Mallorca and the Canary Islands, Turkey and Egypt are tour operator destinations. Nearly 90 percent of guests book a package holiday, most "all-inclusive", because the German organizer also deserves the food. And if the early bird argument does not pull, then one hopes for a strong last minute business.
The trend is experience and round trips in mini groups from two participants. Slight decreases recorded the industry for city breaks and spa holidays .
Cheerful faces can be seen in Germany tourism. No wonder: Germany will probably enter the tenth record year in a row. The super summer of 2018 has made many holidaymakers taste the home and lets them hope for a similar time in 2019. 30 percent of Germans want to go on holiday in their own country, more than in any other travel destination.
All in all, the mood among the tourists seems restrained, but not really bad. After all, this year's Reiseanalyse of the Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen has found that more than 80 percent of Germans rate their personal situation as well or better than a year ago. 60 percent have the necessary money for a summer vacation and 63 percent also have time to travel. Many hesitate, however.
Why the restraint of the tourists?
As a main problem, the pollsters have made the general economic sentiment. And that is cloudy - for fear of trade conflicts, because of the chaos in Italy, the government crisis in Spain, the yellow vests in France.
And of course because of Brexit . The exit of Great Britain from the EU is approaching. And slowly it becomes clear that he intervenes much deeper in the travel business, as it first looked. It's not just about the tourists with destination London, Scotland or Cornwall. They even benefit in the short term from the falling pound. I
There are also many online portals in the fire, which are based in the UK and may suddenly no longer be liable under EU law. It's about budget airlines and hotel chains based in London. And it's about the dull feeling, which one would rather wait for and book his vacation yet.
What are the providers doing against it?
The first organizers have extended the early bird discounts by the end of March. Even otherwise, the prices are on the decline , the market-leading online portal Check24 has whirled up the industry with 200 € vouchers. Some travel companies are turning around, raising more road trips in the programs.
Above all, however, the company bosses are patient: their recipe means waiting and hoping for bad weather at home - experience shows that this is the best way to boost last-minute business.