A view shows the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall after the shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, on March 22, 2024 (French)
The current events and their developments, especially those witnessed by the Middle East region in the past months, indicate the possibility of entering a new era, or opening paths to establish political realities different from those prevailing before the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” and these events could be shaped based on accumulations that began since the Iranian rapprochement. Saudi Arabia is under Chinese sponsorship, which was preceded by Gulf openness to the Syrian regime, and prior to that, the Turkish rapprochement with Egypt and the Gulf states. Currently, the region is witnessing a regional movement, the results of which are still unclear pending the expected moment of settlement.
However, suddenly the international focus shifted to Russia, which was subjected to a major and organized attack, although mystery still surrounds many of its aspects. Just as the battle of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” forced the shift of media focus from Ukraine to the Gaza Strip, so the Moscow attack moved the eyes of the world. From Gaza to Russia.
What is certain is that the Moscow attack and the repercussions that will result from it will occupy a major area of international media focus, and for the second time in less than a year Russia is witnessing a major event:
First: With the failed coup attempt by Wagner’s forces commander Prigogine, which distracted global attention; By directing a blow into Russia and marching towards Moscow with remarkable speed, and without obstacles or serious resistance from the Russian army or security services, while the end of the coup was more ambiguous, and the killing of Prigozhin did not erase what was expected from the many questions about the truth of what happened and its true backgrounds.
Second: Today, with the most important event of striking Moscow this time, and a few days after the Russian presidential elections that granted a popular mandate to Russian Tsar Vladimir Putin, with the highest percentage of votes ever; He would continue for a fifth term, but Putin's electoral victory did not prevent him from appearing in a state of confusion after the operation, which made him wait a whole day before he addressed the Russian people, astonished by the horror of what had happened.
It seemed that the Moscow attack represents a major security breach at the security and intelligence levels, which opens the doors to change in the security body for Putin, and he blamed them on various occasions for the reasons for the failure of some operations and movements, which means that the attack will constitute an appropriate opportunity for Putin to get rid of some of those who disagree with him in the body. Federal Security, in exchange for appointing others from the new generation to the intelligence service.
But there is something further and more important to the repercussions of the Moscow attack, and what is meant here is the direction that Moscow's retaliatory response will take. While ISIS Khorasan branch claimed responsibility for the operation, the Russian leadership sought from the beginning to accuse Ukraine of involvement in the terrorist act, and here is the hidden and mysterious plot.
At the beginning of last September, just before the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” ISIS Khorasan branch claimed responsibility for a suicide attack against the Russian embassy in Kabul, which led to the killing of embassy employees.
This operation constituted the organization’s most prominent move after the completion of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021. What is meant here is that the hostility between it and Russia has never subsided.
In addition, the method of implementation is the traditional ISIS method, except for the unexpected end of the operation, which resembles the organization’s ongoing performance. Usually, ISIS members continue shooting and killing operations until the ammunition is exhausted, and then they either blow themselves up or are killed. That is, they put the inevitability of their death at the end of the mission. What happened in Moscow is completely different in terms of setting a prior withdrawal plan, and this is strange to the organization’s military and security performance.
In parallel, the Russian state’s haste to level accusations against Ukraine suggests a pre-emptive and imaginative approach to exploiting the circumstance and raising the level of bombing in Ukraine, working to resolve the war as quickly as possible, and imposing final and fixed field facts affecting all of Europe. Because the method of the operation and the media mobilization that took place from its first moments, steadily raise the level of resentment and feeling of anxiety about existence and entity, and push towards raising the level of internal mobilization, on the basis that the danger is no longer only at the borders, but is now deep within Russia as well.
It seems that the conflict occurring between Washington and Moscow in the African coast over influence - and which is expanding strongly in the Middle East, whether directly in Syria or indirectly in many arenas, including the Palestinian arena - enhances Moscow's ability to mobilize young people to join the army and fight.
It is certain that the American naval pier intended to be established on the coast of Gaza, which carries humanitarian and relief titles, will constitute a blow to the Russian sea corridor project, which Putin aspired to establish its routes from the coast of Tartous in Syria, all the way to the coast of Tobruk in Libya, and it is not an end to Russia’s ongoing attempts to establish a foothold on the coast. Sudanese, to be hit by the United States with the military hotline from Cyprus to Gaza, which will strengthen NATO’s presence in warm waters.
Therefore, it became clear during the recent visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken that some of the political headlines related to Washington’s vision for the next day in Gaza are the most attractive for discussion, and they are what will affect the Palestinian arena, its future, and the identity of its new sponsors, including what is related to the completion of the last episodes of normalization with Israel with the entry of Saudi Arabia. To the club of countries involved in the peace project.
But the ideal truth is that this file is complex and affects the security and military guarantees of the Gulf presence in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, coinciding with the complete reformulation of the regional equation, as its broad outlines are supposed to have made the timing appropriate for Abu Dhabi to receive the official of the Hezbollah Liaison and Coordination Unit, Al-Hajj. Wafiq Safa, in parallel with the high temperature in the relationship between Riyadh and Damascus, which may soon culminate in a Saudi-Syrian summit in Al-Muhajireen Palace.
Safa’s visit followed the visit of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant to Washington, who brought with him the Lebanese file as a main file for his meetings, and the big vision proposed for the next day at the level of the Palestinian arena, and at the level of the new regional equation, but he also discussed the issue of the military reality with southern Lebanon, and he is known for his position. After the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation, which called for opening war directly against Hezbollah.
In light of all these points and facts, there are those who imagine that there is an opportunity for the countries of the region, especially the Gulf countries and Iran, to enter into a serious path about creating intersections among themselves on a number of issues from Yemen to Iraq, and from Syria to Lebanon. On the other hand, the party’s allies and Damascus believe that the region is going through a period of transformation, in light of Russia’s readiness to escalate its military attack on Ukraine, and the US administration’s preoccupation with keeping up with this escalation.
Note that these interests will decline as the American elections approach, while the Israelis fighting the Battle of Rafah will be a reality, but then talk could become serious in the month of June about the resignation of the Israeli government and going to early elections, or if the opposite happens, we must wait for the elections. US Presidential.
Here the urgent question becomes whether the ISIS attack on Moscow, which will reduce some aspects of the global spotlight on the Middle East, may facilitate going to “the next day” settlements in Gaza and Lebanon, where Russia has a significant presence in Syria and Libya, but the greatest fear is Moscow being a new obstacle will increase the complexity of the scene in the Middle East.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.