The Battle of Rafah: An anticipated announcement or a postponed decision?

An Israeli soldier on top of his tank during the ongoing battles in Gaza (French)

It seems that the calculations of the field have differed from the calculations of Al-Baydar of the occupation’s political and military leaders, 182 days after the fierce battles in the Gaza Strip between the Palestinian resistance factions led by the “Al-Qassam Brigades” on the one hand, and the occupation forces supported by the United States of America, and many... Western countries, on the other hand, especially after this army, in its previous wars with the Arabs, used rules of engagement that depended on transferring the battle to the opponent’s territory, and on lightning war that lasted for a few days, due to its inability to bear the material, human, and economic losses.

But the Zionist army in this war, which was called “Iron Swords,” broke all these rules, and it reached the end of the sixth month of the war, after its ground forces penetrated into the northern district, Gaza City, and the central sector, as well as into the city of Khan Yunis, after suffering losses and paying a price. This cost him great losses in lives and equipment, and today he insists on going to the city of Rafah, to which approximately one and a half million residents of the Gaza Strip have been displaced from other areas. Because of the military operations that took place there, which made it a densely populated city, any military action there would cause serious repercussions and an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe.

Netanyahu's insistence on fighting the battle

Netanyahu insists on going to the battle of Rafah; Because he believes that wars are measured by their results by achieving the goals set by the political leadership of the military leaders, but at the same time he feels very disappointed in this war. Because of the inability of his army to break the Palestinian resistance and force it to surrender, despite the great military and intelligence potential and capabilities of the Zionist army, and despite the great discrepancy in the balance of power, including the unlimited American and Western support for the occupation army, which has not achieved any of its strategic goals.

Including access to the political and military leaders of the Hamas movement, led by “Al-Sinwar” and “Muhammad Al-Deif,” whom the occupation reported was killed in an air strike in the central sector, but did not confirm this, as well as Marwan Issa, especially since he was unable to reach The number of prisoners is more than 130, including important military and leadership figures for the occupation army. He is trying to present his tactical achievements as a victory for his army, knowing that they do not amount to operational or strategic achievements.

The other thing is that whoever monitors the developments of the war finds that the media campaign of the occupation leaders, especially in the War Council, began a long time ago to promote the Battle of Rafah, as Gantz, a member of the War Council, says: “If a deal is not concluded to exchange prisoners, we will go to Rafah,” while Netanyahu says: Going to Rafah only takes a few weeks, and it is important to achieve the goals of the war that can only be achieved by going there to complete the destruction of the infrastructure of the resistance factions, wishing himself the possibility of reaching the prisoners, or the military and political leaders. Hamas and the rest of the other Palestinian factions.

Note that the fighting has returned, fierce and ferocious, in all the areas where the occupation forces had previously penetrated, whether in the Northern District, or Gaza City, which should have entered the third phase of the war, which should be less intense, as well as the city of Khan Yunis, which they described as representing the center of the war. The political and military weight of the resistance factions, but it seems that the military incursion did not prevent the launching of rockets from the cities of the Gaza Strip towards the occupied cities, including “Ashdod,” which was bombed with eight missiles on the 171st day of the war. This proves the failure of the occupying forces to stop the rocket attacks and military operations. Directly, the question is: What have the occupation forces been doing over the past period? And where are the military achievements that its leaders are talking about?

The contradictory American position

Whoever observes the American position will find that there is a major media disagreement with the Netanyahu government, but at the same time there is great agreement in everything that the occupation government and its military forces are doing, as Washington announces that it refuses to go to the Battle of Rafah unless there is a plan agreed upon between the two sides. With regard to protecting civilians and increasing the entry of food aid into the Strip, the entity’s leaders must pledge not to use American weapons to kill civilians, which raises many questions. Because Washington's supply of weapons to the entity is an actual participation in the killing of civilians, and this has been happening for six months.

America - which warns its citizens in Moscow of an imminent terrorist act, and demands that they not be present in public places a month before the attack that took place in the Russian city of Belgorod - certainly knows that the weapons it sends to Israel are used to kill civilians, and the question is: Why does it continue to do so? If it wants to stop the war? Also, building a temporary dock to deliver aid - as it claims - is empty talk and has no basis in truth. Because Washington can bring food aid in by land just as it can bring weapons into the entity!

But it is building this pier for various reasons related to American-Zionist interests in the region, including the land corridor competing with the Chinese Silk Road, which passes through Gaza City towards the occupied territories to Europe, as well as the construction of the Ben Gurion Canal as an alternative to the Suez Canal, in addition to the gas present on the coasts parallel to Gaza. ; Therefore, Washington is the spearhead of this war on Gaza.

Challenges and wishes

One of the most important challenges for which the Netanyahu government must find a convincing solution to go to Rafah is the high population density that has reached one and a half million civilians, and this requires a plan to transfer civilians to safe areas! The question is: Is there a safe area in the Gaza Strip? The answer is : "no"!,

Even previously identified areas, such as the “Al-Mawasi” area, are subject to aerial and artillery bombardment and incursion by the occupying forces that do not adhere to any humanitarian standards. Because the occupation leaders view the people of Gaza as human animals, as Defense Minister Gallant describes them, and the question is: Where will this large population density go, amid the intensification of battles in all regions? In addition, the Zionist military force has been greatly exhausted and has lost many of its members. Its combat readiness, which is exhausted and tired; As a result of the continuous and fierce fighting, especially since it is fighting the longest war in its history and is still ongoing.

In addition, there is a significant shortage of ammunition, especially tank equipment (120 mm), as well as artillery equipment (155 mm), as a result of the excessive use of destructive force in destroying Gaza City, as Zionist reports indicate that the army fired more than (100) thousand artillery shells. And more than (40) thousand shells and missiles as aerial bombardment, and more than (3000) missiles were launched from the Iron Dome system, not to mention the dangerous escalation of confrontations in the West Bank.

Note that there have been more than (19) guerrilla operations carried out since the start of the war on Gaza, as well as the escalation of missile strikes and mutual bombardment in the northern region with Lebanon, which could turn into a comprehensive confrontation, especially since the Zionist entity demands that Hezbollah forces be behind " Litani River” according to UN Resolution (1701), which prompted the Chief of Staff to withdraw Division (36) and move it to the Lebanese front.

The question is: What if this front was opened? Or if confrontations broke out in the West Bank on a large scale? What would the situation be like on all of these inflamed fronts? Especially since there is a major shortage of combat power, which made the Zionist Chief of Staff, according to the newspaper “Yedioth Ahronoth.” “It calls for the recruitment of (7,000) soldiers, in addition to (7,500) officers and non-commissioned officers; To compensate for his losses in combat power, as the Ministry of Finance approved only (2500).”

The continuation of the battles that took place in Gaza depleted the capabilities and capabilities of the Zionist army to a very great extent, and had it not been for the open American and Western military support to provide weapons and ammunition, and provide intelligence support, the Zionist entity would not have been able to continue this battle throughout the past period, in addition to the great economic and political support in its corridors. The United Nations, despite the passage of Resolution (2728) in the Security Council after Washington abstained from voting, knowing that the resolution is not binding on the leaders of the entity to stop the war.

There is also a major internal political and social division regarding the issue of recruiting the Haredi community for military service, which raises widespread controversy and serious internal division. Due to the increase in threats and lack of capabilities, not to mention the extension of reserve service for another four months, which means that there is a real impasse that the occupation army is going through in terms of combat power and the multiplicity of fronts, especially with Netanyahu alone in making decisions, including the prisoner exchange issue, noting that the internal economic situation He puts extraordinary pressure on the leaders of the Zionist entity.

In addition, cases of rebellion against orders in the Zionist army have become numerous and have begun to become public, as happened in the “Givati” Brigade when (9) soldiers rebelled and refused to comply with the orders issued, as well as in the “Golani” Brigade, as well as in the reserve forces. which refused to fight in Gaza; Because they are not trained to fight in these areas, in addition to the large number of cases of psychological distress, as many individuals in the army forces suffer from psychological conditions that have reached more than (5) thousand cases, and more than (30) thousand soldiers have submitted requests that they suffer from Psychiatric illness.

Retired Major General Ishaq Brik - the former commander of the Armored Corps - stated that there is a shortage of equipment, supplies and ammunition, including the presence of many destroyed tanks and armored vehicles that are still in the Gaza Strip. He also pointed to a great chaos that cannot be talked about in the media, as some indicate Reports indicate that the rate of complaints has risen to 269%, and the reprimanding of the Commander of the 98th Division after his statement to the political leaders is the best evidence of the great division among the occupation leaders, and all of these challenges constitute a major obstacle to the military and political leaders of the occupation.

Human cost

The presence of civilians constitutes a major obstacle to the launch of the military operation in the city of Rafah, in addition to the entry of the holy month of Ramadan. Because the humanitarian cost will be great, and this cost will not be able to be borne by the Netanyahu government, so it seeks to involve the United States of America in this battle by obtaining military and political support to go into this battle.

Note that the Biden administration is offering alternative options for the ground operation, including targeting Hamas leaders with specific and specific operations, and controlling the “Salah al-Din Corridor,” as there was a meeting in Washington that included the Israeli Minister of Defense, “Gallant,” and the American Secretary of Defense, “Austin,” during which the two sides discussed To the military, political and humanitarian challenges of this battle during a critical period in which the entity suffers from great international isolation. Because of the crimes committed against civilians in Gaza City.

In addition, there are American elections in which the popularity of the American President is declining. Because of his full support for this war, the legitimacy of the international organizations affiliated with the United Nations has become at stake in terms of their legal and humanitarian legitimacy after the crimes of human genocide and war crimes committed by the Zionist army, without accountability, as these organizations have become ineffective.

Resistance factions and the battle of Rafah

When we talk about the Battle of Rafah, which the Zionist army intends to go to, we must point out that this battle will be imposed on the Palestinian resistance factions, as it was imposed on them in the north, in the center, and in the city of Khan Yunis, and whoever looks at the resistance’s strategy in confrontation will find that Its defensive battle was fought according to the geographical locations of the sector, so the brigades present in the Rafah area are integrated brigades for Al-Qassam, and the rest of the other factions in terms of number and equipment, and they are still in full strength, capacity and combat readiness.

This means that the battle will not differ from the rest of the other regions that preceded it in exhausting the Zionist forces that are trying to destroy the infrastructure and the ability to reach resistance leaders and Zionist prisoners. Here I add an important point, which is controlling the “Philadelphia” axis, known as the “Salah al-Din” crossing, which reaches... Its length is (14 km), as it is considered a buffer zone under the peace agreement concluded between Egypt and Israel in 1979.

This requires coordination with Egypt in any military operation in this region, and this raises many question marks about the Egyptian position on the Rafah operation, because the Zionist army wants to control this crossing to isolate the Gaza Strip from the outside world, and to completely strangle Gaza from all sides.

The resistance’s success in maintaining its infrastructure enabled it to manage its defensive battle with great energy and great success by exhausting the occupation forces throughout the past period, which raised the bill of losses in an unprecedented manner, especially with the presence of a tunnel network that is still active and is being used in a way that is compatible with the capabilities of the resistance. I also used it in the north, in the center, and in the south, and as it is said, the land fights with its people.

We saw how military operations returned in the areas of the north, Gaza, and Khan Yunis, and what happened in the Al-Shifa Complex is the best evidence of the development of battles in the region, as well as in the “Amal Neighborhood,” “Amal Hospital,” and “Nasser Hospital,” noting that the area of ​​“ Al-Qarara has returned to the forefront of intense battles, and this gives a clear indication that the Zionist army present in the areas it previously penetrated cannot fully control them. Because of its expansion and the lack of combat forces present there; Therefore, he is trying to use aerial and artillery bombardment, and bombing from drones. To compensate for its direct presence, as well as limited ground operations in specific geographical areas to inspect them and then withdraw from them.

Netanyahu will try to go to the city of Rafah; To complete the military action and achieve the goals of the war, but the important question is: What if he goes and the goals of the war are not achieved? By reaching the political and military leaders and the prisoners? Note that the issue of the prisoners does not gain priority for his government, because he believes that these prisoners are the reason for the destruction of his political future. ; Because they failed to defend the Zionist entity on the seventh of last October, and they are an essential part of the Nakba that befell the Zionist entity during that period.

Therefore, these people must be brought to trial and held accountable! Not for Netanyahu and his government to conclude a deal to release them. That is why he is trying to exhaust all possible military options. To buy time and stay as long as possible before he goes to conclude any deal with the resistance factions; Because stopping the fighting means ending his political future and referring him to the courts, knowing that the upcoming Rafah battle will not be a cakewalk as Netanyahu tries to portray or hopes for, and this battle may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.