“Uninterceptable” threat April 6th 13:15
``It appears that Japan already has the ability to attack Japan by equipping ballistic missiles with nuclear weapons that are within range of Japan,'' (Ministry of Defense).
52 times, 89 shots.
This is the number and number of potential ballistic missile launches that North Korea has conducted since 2022. Despite opposition and sanctions from the international community, North Korea has repeatedly launched missiles and is rapidly improving its technology.
How high has the threat become now?
(Ryotaro Minami, Yuitsugu Suda, Kei Yamazaki, Social Affairs Department / Takahide Nagasuna, Seoul Bureau)
combat command post
``Obtaining ballistic missile launch information'' ``
Preparing for combat against BM''
Aegis ship ``Kongou'' of the 5th Escort Squadron of the 1st Escort Group of the Maritime Self-Defense Force.
The voices of the soldiers echo in the "heart" of the ship, the CIC (Combat Command Center).
The lights from the maps of the Korean Peninsula and Japanese archipelago displayed on monitors lined up on the wall illuminate the faces of the soldiers in camouflage uniforms.
One of them pressed the button labeled ``General Alert'' with the command, and an alarm-like alarm echoed throughout the ship.
``SM3 launch!'
' ``10 seconds before intercept.
'' ``Mark, intercept!''
Another member announces the successful interception using a microphone connected to the ship's public address system.
Anti-BM (Ballistic Missile) training conducted in March.
The Self-Defense Forces are constantly issued with orders to deal with ballistic missiles, known as ``office orders,'' so that they can respond to missile launches at any time.
Under this order, Aegis warships are deployed at sea, tracking every missile launched by North Korea and preparing to intercept it in the unlikely event of an attack.
Once deployed, it becomes an actual operation, not a training exercise.
Gen Kawai, 1st Class Commander:
``In recent years, technology has been rapidly changing and progressing, such as the appearance of ballistic missiles that can fly at low altitudes and irregular trajectories.There is no room for failure in ballistic missile defense. We are working with a sense of urgency to ensure that we are able to fully respond to the threat."
saturday watch 9
Scheduled to be broadcast on April 6th
(distributed until April 13th at 10pm on NHK Plus)
Mars 16 type
The Self-Defense Forces are currently increasing their vigilance over the development of missiles that may not be able to be intercepted by existing missile defense systems.
"We decided to stick to the three main principles of attacking enemy targets quickly, accurately, and powerfully."
On April 3, North Korea announced that it had successfully conducted the first test launch of a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Hwasong-16.
The video shows Kim wearing a jumper and a missile mounted on a seven-wheeled mobile launch pad on one side.
“Hypersonic missile”.
At the tip of the missile, which North Korea described as such, a black and white checkered object shaped like the tip of a spear can be seen.
After the missile heads into the sky, it is ejected from the launch tube using a technique called cold launch, which uses pressure from gas, etc., and ignites in the air.
The flames did not blow out in a concentrated manner directly below, but spread out like a skirt along with a large amount of white smoke.
This is a phenomenon unique to solid fuels, which is different from liquid fuels.
The video continues to follow the missile as it rises vertically and flies into the sky.
North Korea claimed that the warhead, which it calls a "hypersonic glide warhead," flew as expected and landed 1,000 km away, making the test a success.
Is it an exaggeration or a mistake?
Japan, the United States, and South Korea detected and tracked this launch.
Japan announced a flight distance of over 650km, and South Korea announced a distance of over 600km.
Both are shorter than the 1,000km claimed by North Korea.
Why is there a “difference”?
The Joint Chiefs of Staff of the South Korean military said it was an "exaggeration" by North Korea, but some South Korean experts also mentioned the possibility that they were unable to track the missile.
A hypersonic missile has a warhead separated in the sky, known as a glide body, which flies at a low altitude while changing its trajectory at more than five times the speed of sound to reach its target.
Japan's radar can detect and track missiles flying above the horizon, but cannot track missiles flying in airspace where they are hidden beyond the horizon due to the curve of the Earth.
In the launch that North Korea announced as a test of a hypersonic missile on January 15, 2024, South Korea announced that the flight range was 1,000 km, but the Ministry of Defense had originally put it at least 500 km.
However, detailed analysis later revealed that the plane had actually flown approximately 1,000 km, as announced by South Korea, according to multiple sources.
A source said, ``It was extremely difficult to track the missile because of its irregular trajectory, flying at a low altitude but gaining altitude along the way.''
threat
North Korea claims a successful hypersonic missile test.
North Korea announced on April 3 that the "hypersonic glide warhead" climbed to an altitude of 101.1 km on a planned trajectory, descended, rose again to an altitude of 72.3 km, and accurately landed 1,000 km away. He explains.
In response, the South Korean military said that the change in trajectory was an "exaggeration" and that it would take a considerable amount of time for the missile to become a military force, saying, "Hypersonic missiles require highly difficult technology that even developed countries are currently developing."
On the other hand, a Ministry of Defense official said, ``After ascending in a normal orbit, the flight lowered and then rose in altitude.The speed was hypersonic, exceeding Mach 5.'' North Korea's explanations are all exaggerations. It shows that it is impossible to say.
The five-year plan for strengthening the nation's national defense, announced by General Secretary Kim Jong Un at the Workers' Party of Korea Congress three years ago in January 2021, calls for progressing with the development of warheads that can glide at hypersonic speeds.
Since then, the "hypersonic missile" has been launched five times: September 28, 2021, January 5 and 11, 2022, January 14, 2024, and April 2.
The Ministry of Defense analyzed that as of January 11, 2022, the aircraft had reached a maximum speed of approximately Mach 10, and was flying by turning horizontally and changing its trajectory.
They were becoming increasingly wary of technological advances.
A Ministry of Defense official said,
``North Korea is improving its technology in order to realize the goals set forth in its five-year plan.Although there are still issues to be solved, such as the development of warheads, it will continue to conduct various launches in the future.'' I suspect they are aiming for actual combat deployment. If that happens, it will be difficult to detect and intercept, making it a threat."
“Unable to intercept”
In principle, Japan's missile defense system assumes that ballistic missiles fall in a parabola due to gravity.
The system predicts the flight course and fall point based on the launch angle and speed, and then shoots it down with an interceptor missile.
Current systems can handle some changes in trajectory, but intercepting missiles flying erratically at hypersonic speeds and low altitudes is extremely difficult.
One possible countermeasure would be to destroy the launch site before changing the trajectory, that is, at the early stage of launch or as soon as signs of launch are detected.
However, in the case of a solid-fuel type, it is not easy to grasp the signs of a launch in advance because there is no need to inject fuel just before the launch.
Furthermore, there is the extremely difficult question of when and how to determine that the other side has launched an attack against Japan.
In light of this situation, the Ministry of Defense plans to develop an interceptor missile that can also respond to hypersonic missiles.
Furthermore, the United States is strengthening cooperation with the United States and South Korea on missile defense, with the aim of improving deterrence to prevent North Korea from launching an attack.
North Korea's true intentions
``The North-South relationship is no longer a kinship relationship, a hostile relationship between the two countries, and a relationship between the two belligerents at war.''
December 2023. General Secretary Kim Jong Un's speech at the general meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea attracted the attention of experts in Japan, the United States, and South Korea.
North Korea had previously said it was aiming for peaceful unification with South Korea, but this was seen as a change in policy.
38 North, an American-based analysis of North Korea's trends, published a report the following month, in January 2024, stating that Kim Jong Un had abandoned the goal of peaceful reunification and had "made a strategic decision to go to war." I think that I did."
However, there are many objections to this, with one South Korean expert holding the view that North Korea has a pragmatic aim to increase the "effectiveness" of its nuclear deterrence (the idea of deterring an opponent from attacking by possessing nuclear weapons). showed that.
Hong Min, research committee member
: ``North Korea's unification policy so far has been for ethnic groups to unify themselves voluntarily.However, what will happen if they put nuclear weapons into practical use is that they will aim their weapons at their own ethnic group. If the relationship becomes a major stumbling block and the perception that nuclear weapons cannot be used is formed, nuclear deterrence becomes meaningless.If the logic is that nuclear weapons can be used against countries that are considered hostile, then nuclear deterrence will work. It can be determined that there was a very pragmatic intention.''
deterrence for North Korea.
That means forcing the United States to refrain from attacking North Korea.
In order to ``deter'' an American attack, it is necessary to demonstrate the ability to inflict unbearable damage on South Korea and the United States in the event of an emergency.
To that end, the analysis shows that the country is proceeding with the development of nuclear forces and is trying to increase their effectiveness.
remaining time
Lee Sang-min, a colonel in the South Korean Army and a research member at the Korea National Defense Research Institute, said, ``Short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles may have reached some level of the technological goals that the North has in mind.''
The short- and medium-range ballistic missiles are said to have a range that includes U.S. military bases in South Korea, U.S. military bases in Japan, and Guam.
So what is that strategy?
Researcher Lee mentions that North Korea aims to operate military reconnaissance satellites and explains as follows.
Lee Sang-min, research committee member
: ``Anti-access/area denial'' that prevents American military forces from crossing the Pacific Ocean or coming from Guam and Hawaii, and preventing American forces in Japan and South Korea from operating on the Korean Peninsula. 'Isn't it appropriate to think that?'
On the other hand, research committee member Lee takes the view that the technology for re-entering the atmosphere with warheads has not been established for ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) that can reach the American continent.
Furthermore, miniaturizing nuclear warheads will require additional nuclear tests, and military reconnaissance satellites needed to accurately locate distant targets will still require much time to develop.
Nevertheless, despite sanctions from the international community, North Korea has rapidly improved its technology for launching missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads over the past few years.
The international community must find a way to stop this development before nuclear forces are established.
To do so, it is necessary to draw North Korea into the negotiation arena.
How do we find the clue? There isn't much time left.
saturday watch 9
Scheduled to be broadcast on April 6th
(distributed until April 13th at 10pm on NHK Plus)
Social Affairs Department Reporter
Ryotaro Minami
Joined the department in 2011 After working at the Yokohama Bureau and Okinawa Bureau, he is currently
in charge of the Ministry of Defense and Self-Defense Forces since 2020.
Social Affairs Department Reporter
Yuitsugu Suda
Joined the department in 2014 After working at the Matsue Bureau, he is currently
in charge of the Ministry of Defense and Self-Defense Forces from 2022
Kei Yamazaki
, reporter for the Social Affairs Department Joined
the department in 2015 After working at the Fukuoka bureau, he currently belongs
to the Ministry of Defense and Self-Defense Forces from 2023
Seoul bureau reporter
Takahide Suna
Joined the bureau in 2007 After working at the Niigata bureau, the China general bureau (Beijing), and the Yamaguchi bureau, he currently
works at his current station, focusing on the situation on the Korean Peninsula.