Head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar (Al Jazeera)
In the previous article, I talked about the existential threat that the Gaza war poses to the political future of Zionist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Joe Biden, and the Hamas movement. This threat pushes the three parties to continue the war until victory is achieved, and this matter represents a major problem for the Hamas movement, which It faces major internal and external challenges around it that make it more difficult for it to achieve victory, especially the multiplicity of parties working to defeat it and seeking to eradicate it.
In the face of this existential threat, the Hamas movement, and behind it the Palestinian armed resistance in the Gaza Strip, is faced with limited, extremely complex and difficult options. Which of these options will be the most appropriate and least costly for it?
Despite the high cost of the option of resistance until the last breath, it is the only option for Hamas that is capable of achieving victory for the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.
Hard choices
In the previous article, we referred to three options that impose themselves on the Hamas movement, and we will address each of them from two angles: the possibility of achieving them, and the cost resulting from them.
The first option: Agree to a temporary humanitarian truce without requiring a final and comprehensive ceasefire
For more than two months, talks have been ongoing between the Zionist entity and the Hamas movement through mediators in Doha and Cairo, to reach a humanitarian truce. It aims to provide humanitarian aid and release prisoners, but these talks have reached a dead end. Because of the Hamas movement’s insistence on the condition of a final and comprehensive ceasefire and the withdrawal of the Zionist army out of the Gaza Strip, and because of the initial rejection of this condition by the Zionist entity, talks are still ongoing to overcome this condition. Will they end with Hamas agreeing to a temporary truce?
Possibility
Hamas cannot waive this condition; Because it simply means agreeing to the death sentence, and giving the Zionist-American alliance the right to continue military operations to achieve the goal of eliminating it.
the cost
Waiving this condition is costly, as follows:
Enabling the Zionist-American alliance to separate civilians into shelter areas outside the battlefields and areas of conflict, and ending the administrative and security role of Hamas and the resistance movement among the displaced, who will be subject to special arrangements whose details have not yet been announced, in which the United States, the European Union, the United Nations, and some Arab countries participate. . Enabling the Zionist-American alliance to tighten the noose on Hamas and the resistance movement from all sides. Evacuating the battlefield of civilians, and paving the way for the Zionist entity to isolate itself with the Hamas movement and the resistance, in combat operations that rely on new tactics and a military strategy that depends on patience, which may extend for a year or two at most, according to the estimates of the Zionist army commanders; A strategy that takes into account the demands of the US administration, the International Court of Justice, and the United Nations to preserve civilians and provide them with the necessary assistance.
Hamas cannot waive the condition of a final and comprehensive ceasefire; Because it means agreeing to the death sentence, and giving the Zionist-American alliance the right to continue military operations to achieve its goals
The second option: Surrender and withdrawal from the Gaza Strip within regional and international arrangements
This option was presented to the Hamas movement more than three months ago, and it turned its back on it at the time and did not respond to the parties that called for it. It is an option that many official and unofficial parties are still proposing, as a quick option to stop the fire and end the worsening crisis in the Gaza Strip, similar to what happened with the Fatah movement and the PLO, when they agreed to stop the war, in exchange for withdrawal from Lebanon in the 1982 war after more than From 80 days of fighting.
Possibility
It is completely unlikely that it is included in its calculations at this stage, because it represents organizational, military, political, intellectual and social suicide, and its acceptance of it would be a direct admission that it has committed a grave political and military mistake, holding it responsible for the heavy price that the Gaza Strip has paid in the past three months at least.
the cost
The loss of Hamas and the resistance in this option will be very heavy, the most notable of which are the following:
The victory of the Zionist-American alliance in the battle and its empowerment of the Gaza Strip, paving the way for it to implement the next day’s plans in the Strip in accordance with its near and distant interests, and complete control over the details of what will happen without allowing any Arab or Islamic interference. Complete liquidation of the administrative, security and social presence of Hamas and the resistance in the Gaza Strip. Dissolving armed resistance factions and battalions. Organizational splits occur in military and political entities. The collapse of the intellectual foundations on which these entities were based. Bear responsibility for all the losses incurred by the Gaza Strip in this and previous wars. The decline in political standing in the Palestinian political scene, social standing in the ranks of Palestinian society, and emotional standing in the hearts of the Arab and Islamic peoples.
The third option: resistance until the last breath
This option requires Hamas to continue adhering to the conditions of a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire, the withdrawal of the Zionist army from all of the territory of the Gaza Strip, and continued resistance to force the Zionist entity to accept these conditions.
Possibility
Despite the high cost of this option, it is the only option available to her, and she has complete control over it so far. It is the only option that will achieve victory for the Palestinian cause, the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, Hamas and the armed resistance, and will preserve its political, military, intellectual and social momentum.
In addition, it is the only option before it to confirm adherence to the rights and legitimacy of the resistance and the crime of Zionist-American genocide against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, and to maintain global popular support for the Palestinian cause and its just demands. It is the only option that will continue to move the regional and international interactions and repercussions that are currently open to many Possibilities and expectations.
the cost
The financial loss in this option will be the highest among the rest of the options, the most prominent of which are as follows:
The Zionist bombing and destruction operations continue at rates more ferocious and barbaric than before, with the aim of increasing pressure on Hamas and the resistance and forcing them to submit to the conditions of the Zionist-American alliance. Continuing human casualties among civilians, which have reached unprecedented rates, except in cases of epidemics, earthquakes, and atomic bombs. The continued suffering of displaced civilians and those steadfast amid the rubble of their destroyed homes, without water, food, clothing, or medicine. Increasing logistical pressure on the resistance factions, which will make the conditions for military operations more harsh, especially with the long period and lack of supplies. The Zionist-American alliance carrying out its military operations in the city of Rafah, which will open the way for new scenarios for the displaced, currently appears to be just speculation and unconfirmed information.
These three options are not final, but they are currently the most present to Hamas and the armed resistance in the Gaza Strip, in an attempt to confront the eradication operations carried out by the Zionist-American alliance and its regional and international partners, in light of the ongoing military, humanitarian and geopolitical operations on the ground in the Gaza Strip, and in In light of the regional and international context, which is currently subject to many factors, which may rearrange the equations and priorities of all parties, and may lead to explosion.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.