This is the first time that an Iranian diplomatic building has been directly hit in Syria by an Israeli raid. Monday, April 1, an unprecedented strike, attributed by Iran to Israel, hit the building housing the Iranian consulate and the residence of the Iranian ambassador in a residential area of Damascus.
Iranian state television said the "six missiles fired by F-35 fighters" killed 13 people, six Syrians and seven Iranians. Among the latter, two commanders of the Al-Quds Force, the elite unit of the Revolutionary Guards: Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi. The first was the commander of the Al-Quds Force for Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories, according to several corroborating sources.
Also read: Syria: what we know about the strike attributed to Israel against an Iranian consulate
While Tehran has promised to retaliate, what can we expect? Are we heading towards an uncontrollable regional escalation? France 24 interviewed Michel Duclos, former French ambassador to Syria and special advisor at the Institut Montaigne, a French liberal think tank.
France
24
: Can we talk about a new level reached in regional tensions since October 7
?
Michel Duclos:
What is certain is that Israel is indeed going a little further in the quality of the targets targeted, since there were several commanders of the Revolutionary Guards who participated in a strategic meeting in Damascus.
One of the questions this affair poses is: "How have the Iranians still not understood that there is no longer a safe zone for them around Israel?"
However, an additional level has still been reached. In the sense that the Israelis are taking significant risks in their confrontation with Iran, as if they were testing how far they can go. Or as if they were looking for escalation with Iran.
Did Israel cross a red line by targeting an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria
?
I do not believe. Perhaps this is striking on a symbolic level. But military meetings to prepare military actions against Israel are not supposed to be held in consulates. So I don't believe that the diplomatic status of the compound that was targeted by the Israelis makes a real difference. This is not the first time that senior members of the Revolutionary Guards have been targeted by Israel.
Also read: The Israeli raid on Damascus, an “unprecedented” escalation of tensions
What could be the Iranian response
?
In my opinion, Iran is currently quite weak. Basically, Iran seems to fear open conflict with Israel. And this is going to be a very important test. Tehran is undoubtedly obliged to respond, but I think that this will be of a symbolic nature, avoiding further steps in the escalation, as has been the case until now, since the start of the conflict. between Israel and Hezbollah.
We can therefore expect a fairly limited answer, but no one can be certain. Iran's response window is not obvious. This could be, for example, targeting Israeli diplomatic representations elsewhere in the world, which would be symmetrical with the fact that it was a consulate that was affected.
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