Iran has vowed to avenge the deaths of several high-ranking officers of the Quds Force, the elite unit of the Revolutionary Guards. They died in an airstrike which, according to Tehran, hit the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, on Monday April 1.

The response against Israel, accused of being at the origin of this strike, will be “decisive”, Tehran assured. This would be the first attack targeting an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria. The Jewish state has not officially acknowledged being the author of this targeted assassination, but the New York Times assured Tuesday that it had confirmation from four Israeli officials on condition of anonymity.

A loss “comparable to that of Qassem Soleimani”

Israel has already targeted Iranian interests in Syria in the past. But this time, the name of a victim was highlighted by Iran in its press release: that of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, presented as a "veteran" of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and military advisor. leader in Syria.

This brigadier general is far from being a veteran of the Revolutionary Guards when compared to other members of this corps. “This is the most important Iranian official killed since the war that began following the Hamas attacks on Israeli soil on October 7,” notes Ahron Bregman, political scientist and specialist in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at King's College London. “For Iran, it is a loss comparable to that of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander in chief of the Al-Quds Force, killed by an American drone in 2020,” specifies Shahin Modarres, Iran specialist at the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona.

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Mohammad Reza Zahedi, aged 63 at the time of his assassination, joined the IRGC in 1981, just two years after the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since then, this cadre of the elite military unit had had several hats, such as commander of the ground troops of the Revolutionary Guards or even their air forces.

“He is also renowned for having been one of the Iranian officials closest to Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah,” underlines Clive Jones, specialist in Israel and the Middle East at the University of Durham. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who had sanctions imposed by the Americans, was thus accused by the United States of having arranged the supply of Iranian missiles to Hezbollah.

Mohammad Reza Zahedi served as military attaché of the Quds Force in Syria and Iraq and was stationed in Lebanon. He thus played a “central role in the coordination between the different Islamist groups supported by Iran [Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis in Yemen, NLDR]”, assures Shahin Modarres.

This is also a common point between all the Iranian officials killed in Damascus on Monday. “They were all responsible in different capacities for relations with groups affiliated with Iran and particularly Hamas and Hezbollah,” explains Shahin Modarres. For him, the attack, if it was indeed of Israeli origin, had a "preventive dimension. Israel wanted to reduce as much as possible the Iranian capacity to coordinate with all these groups in anticipation of a possible extension of the conflict."

Provoke Iran and Hezbollah

By thus attacking some of the most prominent members of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Israelis "want to make Tehran understand that they also consider Iran responsible for what is happening in Gaza and on the border with Lebanon. This is a way of indicating that they will not only seek to strike Iran's satellite groups", summarizes Ahron Bregman.

In other words, Monday's airstrike suggests that the Jewish state considers itself ready to intensify the regional conflict with Iran. “This is an unprecedented escalation of tensions since the start of the war against Hamas,” underlines Filippo Dionigi, specialist in Islamist movements and the Middle East at the University of Bristol, in England.

This attack in Damascus is notably linked to Israeli strategy on the border with Lebanon, according to Clive Jones. "Most Israelis believe that something must be done against Hezbollah to allow the safe return of the approximately 100,000 Israelis who have had to leave the region near the Lebanese border since the start of the Gaza war. Israel is increasing gradually the pressure on Hezbollah and this latest operation constitutes a new provocation to see how the radical Shiite movement will react,” said Clive Jones.

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But the Jewish state did not want to send a message only to its enemies. “It is also a way of addressing the United States. Since January, Washington and Tehran have sought to lower tensions, and by striking Damascus, Tel Aviv is making its American ally understand that it is not counting let him hinder his freedom of action. I think this episode will make relations between Israel and the United States much more tense,” said Clive Jones.

Because the assassination of Mohammad Reza Zahedi risks leading to exactly what the United States fears: an Iranian response. Firstly because it is an attack that hurts the Revolutionary Guard Corps. “The death of Mohammad Reza Zahedi deprives the organization of an element who had very good tactical knowledge and great experience on the ground,” underlines Shahin Modarres.

The response dilemma

So of course, "he will be replaced, but it is also an attack which risks shaking the faith [of activists of pro-Iranian groups, Editor's note] in the Iranian capacity to thwart Israeli plans", believes Filippo Dionigi. Indeed, by succeeding in killing seven Iranian officials gathered in the same place at the same time, “Israel proves that its intelligence services are very well informed,” adds this specialist. For Iran, responding also represents an act of authority towards affiliated movements. 

Especially since Tehran accuses Israel of having targeted its consulate in Syria. It is no coincidence that the only aspect that the Israeli army agrees to comment concerns the location of the strike. Israel assures that it was a military building and not a diplomatic representation. The nuance is significant: “Consulates are considered extensions of national territory, so with regard to international law, Israel would in this case have struck Iranian soil with its missile launch,” underlines Filippo Dionigi.

Also read: In war against Hamas, Israel tried to open a second front against Hezbollah?

According to him, "it is a very risky bet that Israel has taken with this operation which could lead to a conflagration." The Jewish state is banking on the fact that Iran can hardly react to the level of the affront inflicted without triggering a regional war that Tehran seeks to avoid. An analysis of the situation which is largely due to the fact that after the death of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, "Iran had promised to take revenge on the United States and Israel [accused of having helped the Americans, Editor's note], but nothing notable happened,” underlines Shahin Modarres.

But this time, in the context of the war in Gaza against Hamas, a movement supported by Iran, Tehran "will have to react", assures Ahron Bregman. This could involve ordering an intensification of attacks against Israel by Hezbollah or the Houthis, but, for the experts interviewed by France 24, the most likely would be an operation against Israel's interests abroad, like an embassy.

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