Liberal Democratic Party loses by default after confusion Nagasaki 3rd Ward supplementary election April 2nd 17:08

The Liberal Democratic Party chose not to lose in the by-election for the Nagasaki 3rd Ward of the House of Representatives to be held in April.

This by-election will be held after Yaichi Tanikawa, a member of the House of Representatives who belonged to the Abe faction, resigned due to an incident involving a faction's political funding party.

The Liberal Democratic Party decided not to field a candidate as a result of continued confusion over the "main war" and "non-war" arguments.

This is the first time that the party has lost by default in a national election in Nagasaki Prefecture since the party was formed in 1955.

A look behind the scenes of the chaos.

(Mao Taniguchi, Mayu Matsumoto)

sudden exit

"I wanted to gain strength. I misunderstood."

On January 22nd this year, Yaichi Tanigawa, then a member of the House of Representatives, attended a press conference in Omura City, Nagasaki Prefecture.

He resigned from his parliamentary seat after leaving the Liberal Democratic Party after being indicted in connection with a faction's political funding party.

Tanigawa, who has spent 37 years as a member of the prefectural assembly, has long played a central role in politics in Nagasaki prefecture.

Tanigawa's sudden exit forced the Liberal Democratic Party's Nagasaki Prefectural Federation to respond to a by-election in Nagasaki's 3rd ward.

Candidacy is a “punishment game”

Amid harsh public criticism over the incident, the Nagasaki Prefectural Federation was wavering over whether to nominate a candidate for the by-election or to postpone the election.

On the opposition side, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan quickly decided to endorse Katsuhiko Yamada, who lost by a narrow margin to Tanigawa in the last House of Representatives election and was re-elected in the proportional representation Kyushu bloc.

The Japan Restoration Association also announced that it will support newcomer Shoichiro Inoue.

Opinions within the prefectural federation were divided into two.

"It's the ruling party's responsibility to give voters a choice."

“I think we need a cleansing policy by not putting forward candidates.”

However, those advocating either side agreed that it would be a tough election.

“Would anyone run for office under these circumstances?”

One prefectural assemblyman told the interviewer to keep his voice quiet.

"What's going to happen is a 'punishment game', right?"

“Certain circumstances” in Nagasaki Prefecture

The circumstances of the Nagasaki Prefectural Federation also made it difficult to find candidates.

Starting with the next House of Representatives election, the number of single-seat constituencies will be increased by 10 and decreased by 10, which will reduce Nagasaki Prefecture's four constituencies to three.

The Liberal Democratic Party has already decided on branch leaders for three new constituencies.

It was decided that Tanigawa would be transferred to be the sole candidate for the proportional representation Kyushu bloc.

For this reason, even if a new candidate won in the by-election, there was no constituency in which he could promise to run in the next House of Representatives election.

A prefectural assemblyman based in Nagasaki's 3rd ward said that although there were voices from those around him to support his candidacy, ``We are facing headwinds and have no guarantees for the future.We cannot risk our lives in an election like this.''

``No one wants to raise a hand in such a situation,'' said the prefectural federation's executive committee, who decided to approach the party headquarters to ask for preferential treatment through proportional representation in the next House of Representatives election if the party were to field a candidate.

“Fight” or “not fight”

In February, full-scale coordination between the prefectural association and party headquarters began regarding whether to field a candidate in Nagasaki's third ward.

February 7th.

Yuichiro Koga, chairman of the prefectural federation and a member of the House of Councilors, and Tetsuya Maeda, secretary-general of the prefectural federation and a member of the prefectural assembly, met with Toshimitsu Mogi, secretary-general, at party headquarters.

According to sources, at this meeting, Motegi said, ``I want you to prepare your candidates with the assumption that they will fight.If they win, we will consider giving them preferential treatment through proportional representation in the next House of Representatives election.''

However, the prefectural federation was confused as to how to interpret Motegi's words, ``as a prerequisite'' and ``we will consider it.''

After the prefectural board meeting on February 10th, Koga said this to reporters with a determined look on his face.

"Unless there is something clear from the party headquarters about whether we will fight or not and what the conditions will be, we cannot ask you to raise your hand."

Perhaps in anticipation of the sluggish Nagasaki Prefectural Association, on February 13, Mogi received a phone call from Koga, the Prefectural Association Chairman, and Maeda, the Secretary General of the Prefectural Association.

Mogi once again instructed them, ``Nagasaki is going to hold an election, so please proceed with your preparations,'' and also said, ``If you win, I promise you a proportionally higher place in the next House of Representatives election.''

From this point on, the prefectural federation's work to field candidates began to take concrete action.

Mogi's thoughts are

Why did Mogi strongly advocate for the nomination?

Amid the headwinds blowing against the party, Mogi had an overall strategy in mind on how to survive the three House of Representatives by-elections to be held in Nagasaki 3rd Ward, Tokyo 15th Ward, and Shimane 1st Ward.

Of particular concern was Shimane Ward 1, which was the only one of the three constituencies that had a designated candidate.

Shimane is one of the most conservative areas in the country, and since this election will be a ``memorial election'' following the death of Hiroyuki Hosoda, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, who had been elected repeatedly, it would be strange for the Liberal Democratic Party to have a considerable advantage. There is no election.

However, the situation in Shimane Ward 1 that was reported to Mogi was not necessarily optimistic.

The selection of candidates for Tokyo's 15 wards is progressing slowly, and if Nagasaki and Tokyo are unable to nominate candidates, what will be the impact on Shimane?

``If Shimane becomes the only area, the opposition parties will concentrate their forces on Shimane.So, in order to avoid such a situation, if there is a good person in Nagasaki, I would like to send him there if possible.''

Motegi told those around him about his feelings toward running for a candidate in Nagasaki.

Within the party headquarters, there were quite a few voices calling for a ``defeat'' as the chances of victory in Nagasaki were slim.

Yuko Obuchi, the head of the election committee, was concerned that in addition to the divided opinions within the prefecture, it was not possible to win an election based on partisan bias.

Even so, Motegi insisted on supporting him in Nagasaki when considering his overall strategy, as it has been pointed out that he could influence the fate of the Kishida administration.

2 people surfaced

As a result of the prefectural association's selection of candidates, one prefectural assemblyman raised his hand.

Although he had expressed his desire to run for national elections in the past, his constituency was not within Nagasaki's 3rd ward, and some within the prefectural federation believed that it would be difficult to expand his support in the 3rd ward. Ta.

Another potential candidate has emerged.

He is a city council member of Omura City, the largest city in Nagasaki's third ward. It is said that a prominent figure in Nagasaki prefectural politics encouraged him to run.

When asked about his intentions at a coffee shop in Omura City, Maeda, the prefectural secretary-general, replied, ``I will consider it, depending on the conditions.''

Three days later, on February 26, Maeda planned to present these two men's names in a discussion with party headquarters for a decision.

However, members of the prefecture's parliament who supported a no-defeat decision expressed a ``wait for it.''

He forced both the prefectural assembly and the Omura city assembly to give up their candidacy.

As a result, the Omura City Council gave up on the idea, but the prefectural assembly did not respond, and in discussions with the party headquarters, it was decided that the prefectural assembly was willing to go ahead with the proposal.

Meeting with party headquarters again

February 26th.

Koga and Maeda, members of the Prefectural Federation's executive committee, met Mogi and Obuchi again at the Liberal Democratic Party headquarters.

The prefectural federation reported that there are prefectural assembly members who have expressed interest in running for office.

On the other hand, Koga also reported that local prefectural assembly members and members of the National Diet have voiced their desire for a bye.

After the meeting, Koga told the waiting press group, ``I would like the party headquarters to make a decision, including whether to fight or not,'' emphasizing that the ball is with the party headquarters.

That night, Mogi sighed and spoke to those around him.

"The prefectural federation is still not motivated. They are withdrawing candidates who have reached a good position on their own, so there is nothing they can do about it. It may be difficult for the local community to continue in this situation. Even if I endorse him, I feel sorry for the candidate.”

From then on, Motegi abruptly halted any efforts to select candidates.

The conclusion is a loser

On April 2, just two weeks before the announcement of the election, Motegi, Koga, and others met and decided to postpone the nomination.

This is the first time since the party was formed in 1955 that the Liberal Democratic Party did not field a candidate in the national election held in Nagasaki.

However, some prefectural assembly members who had advocated for the nomination remained critical of the response of the prefectural federation's executive committee, saying, ``The prefectural federation's opinions have not reached party headquarters.''

Some are beginning to predict that there will be some problems in the future management of the prefectural federation.

This is a by-election that stems from the LDP's ``politics and money,'' and the LDP has no options to judge.

I felt that voters being left behind would continue to have an impact on future elections.

It was a series of interviews.

(Titles omitted)

(Broadcast on April 2nd on News Watch 9)

Nagasaki bureau reporter

Mao Taniguchi

joined the bureau in 2018. After working at the Akita and Yokote bureaus, he transferred to the Nagasaki bureau last year. He is in charge of reporting on Nagasaki prefectural government and the Liberal Democratic Party. I'm currently studying the nature and culture of Nagasaki, and I'm a big fan of the famous Sara-udon noodles.

Nagasaki Bureau Reporter

Mayu Matsumoto

Joined NHK after working as a reporter for a commercial broadcaster in Hokkaido. She is the election secretary general of the Nagasaki bureau. She also covered an election in which the Liberal Democratic Party did not field a candidate in the 2021 Hokkaido 2nd District Hokkaido House of Representatives by-election. In front of the cherry blossoms blooming in Omura City, Nagasaki's third ward