Israel is stuck in war and its aftermath

A drawing of Netanyahu with the phrase “murderer” during a demonstration in Cairo denouncing the war on Gaza (European News Agency)

Although Netanyahu continues to use the term “complete victory,” and the occupation leaders promote the courage of their soldiers and their achievements throughout the Gaza Strip, the differences and the amount of (selective) democracy available in the entity always reveal a different picture on the ground, while the resistance continues to broadcast videos confirming its infliction of losses. In the ranks of the occupation army in all areas of its presence, proving that the latter is still far from imposing its control over the land it occupies.

While the United States believes in full support for this war, the objective reading issued by its intelligence formations confirms that the occupation is still stuck in Gaza and is failing to achieve the goals it set for this war, which is the result that the American administration is building on in its call for Israel to agree to the next day’s plan. Empowering the Palestinian Authority within the framework of a regional solution based on the establishment of an independent state.

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Loss of balance

There is no doubt that the October 7 strike threw the occupation government off balance, as it came from a movement with limited resources and suffering from siege in a limited geographical area, as the security services believed that they were deterred after a series of wars with the occupation.

The size and quality of the occupation’s losses during a limited period of time had a shock effect on all segments of the occupation entity, which led to the formation of an unbridled and overwhelming desire to avenge national dignity, which was translated into statements steeped in contempt and threats to everything Palestinian, and crimes that amounted to ethnic cleansing. Genocide led the entity to be condemned in the International Court of Justice, after Washington provided it with a safety fence in the UN Security Council.

However, this does not diminish the role of the extremist formation that leads the occupation entity, which expressed itself in practices of displacement, and excessive targeting of civilians and the institutions that serve them, such as hospitals and schools, as well as the individual and collective actions of the occupation soldiers, which expressed unprecedented brutality and sadism revealed in the videos leaked to the media. Media, including those leaked by the soldiers themselves.

It is noted that the return of the Israeli army to occupy Al-Shifa Hospital and the surrounding area came after the success of this movement in reaching an understanding with the tribes and UNRWA to guard and organize relief convoys in the north, and then supervise their distribution to the needy through UNRWA centers.

Israel saw that it was free from any legal or moral obligation in a war in which it considered it was defending its existence and not a normal defensive or offensive war, and it was helped in this by the unlimited support it received from the administration of US President Biden, whether by providing it with an airlift of military aid, or by standing in the The Security Council has 4 times opposed any resolution calling for a comprehensive cessation of the war, in addition to not exerting any real pressure on Israel to stop the horrific massacres against civilians, or to confront the war of starvation against the Palestinians.

Therefore it can be said; The goals of eliminating Hamas and releasing prisoners by force were not realistic. Because they emerged from the instinct for revenge, which has no place in political thinking and war plans, as it is not possible to eliminate a movement that has historical and realistic roots, and has extensions inside and outside the land of Palestine.

Israel cannot, just because it believes that it is not possible to coexist with Hamas, be able to eliminate it by military means. Rather, it needs a parallel political effort, which is what the American administration talked about with it under the title The Day After the War, and about a specific role for the authority to replace Hamas in... If you can weaken it!

We may notice that most of the criticism from war generals and former prime ministers of the occupation, and from governmental partners such as Gantz and Eisenkot, is focused on moving to the prisoner exchange stage, and postponing the first goal related to Hamas to a later stage, as long as it has not succeeded so far, which is inconsistent with the ambitions of Netanyahu continues the wheel of war in order to avoid calling for new elections, and to be tried if any ceasefire is reached.

After the war is approaching its sixth month, the Israeli street still agrees on the continuation of the war against Hamas, which Netanyahu is relying on. However, this does not mean that this consensus will continue regardless of the outcome of the war. Without a doubt, Israel's failure to achieve its goals is due in part to its failure to estimate the size of Hamas's strength and its tunnel fortifications, the failure of technology to discover them, and its forced reliance on the human element to achieve this goal, as American intelligence sources said that the occupation only succeeded in dismantling a third of These tunnels are more than 500 kilometers long.

The course of the war indicates that the occupation army is so far unable to come out with a victory that qualifies it to enter into a political settlement that achieves its goals.

However, it is possible that with an effective opposition that succeeds in excluding Netanyahu, or exceeding his personal goals, and taking lessons in the interest of avoiding a strategic defeat for the entity, a ceasefire agreement will be reached, which may lead in the future to a permanent cessation of the war.

After Hamas!

But it does not seem that Gantz, who has double the votes over Netanyahu if the elections are held, is yet able to bring down Netanyahu, who is allied with Ben Gvir and Smotrich, nor can American pressure, which is consistent with the opposition of some parts of the Jewish lobby in the United States, be able. To create real pressure that would lead to the disruption of the extremist government in the entity.

However, there is a major dilemma facing the entity, and not the Netanyahu government alone, which is the next day’s plan. In this plan, America is basing itself on a Palestinian authority modified or improved from the current authority, by transforming Abbas into a formal president and entrusting his powers to a Palestinian prime minister (to be agreed upon by the Americans, Israelis, and Arabs), so that he leads the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in accordance with Israeli demands, and thus works to generalize the model of authority. Ramallah on Gaza.

Naturally, this perception requires Hamas to be in a state of weakness, such that it cannot prevent the extension of the authority’s rule into Gaza, unless Washington relies on Hamas’ acceptance of joining under this authority and its willingness to abandon armed resistance in favor of its continued political survival.

This perception does not appear to be realistic, in light of the Israeli failure to end or weaken Hamas, as its brigades are still operating in the north and south, enjoy a full presence in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, and refuse to integrate into the authority’s program, even if they have expressed their acceptance of a unity government or a management government. Actions, to be formed by Palestinian consensus.

It seems that the United States is frustrated with the weakness of the occupation’s achievements, which leads to reducing the chances of the success of the next day’s vision, unless it wants to rely on the gradual empowerment of this authority by continuing the war and exhausting Hamas with a war of attrition that may last for years or months, and also rely on closing the Salah crossing. Al-Din (Philadelphia) and strangling Hamas by preventing any supply of weapons and equipment to it. Although this scenario is what the Biden administration is trying to convince Netanyahu of instead of completely invading Rafah, it is doubtful that this matter will succeed, whether in terms of the time period or its expected result.

During his recent visit and meeting with the War Council, Blinken tried to warn Netanyahu of the dangers of invading Rafah, saying: “Israel’s security and international standing are in danger. If you do not understand that yet, you risk getting stuck in Gaza, and you risk global isolation.” He told him: “Even if you carry out an operation in Rafah, there will still be a major challenge in Gaza called Hamas.” But Netanyahu responded by saying: “Even the residents of Gaza who are not from Hamas do not want peace. The public in Israel will not be ready for a Palestinian state.” This confirms the occupation's insistence on its position and that it is waging war against the Palestinian people and not against Hamas alone. It also indicates the failure of the Biden administration to convince Netanyahu of the merits of agreeing to a Palestinian state the next day, even if it is formal and demilitarized, as Biden himself confirmed.

It is known that the most important goal of the next day’s vision of accepting a Palestinian state is to facilitate the process of normalization with the Arab world, an achievement that will save Biden from the deterioration of his reputation and the decline of his popularity against his rival Trump in the US presidential elections that will take place this year.

Israeli attempts

The American vision is not accepted by the Netanyahu government in its current composition, as it still insists on rejecting any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, and continues to stress that it will only accept an authority that does not work to incite against the entity, and this matter makes it difficult for the United States to move forward with the vision of the next day. It undermines the US strategy in the region, which forms part of a comprehensive strategy focused on countering Chinese influence and defeating Russia in its war against Ukraine.

As part of the occupation government’s effort to present a vision for the next day, it contacted Palestinian tribal leaders to entrust the distribution of humanitarian aid throughout the Gaza Strip to them, as an introduction, exercise and test for these tribes to take over the rule of Gaza. The surprise was that most of these tribes rejected this role without reaching an understanding with Hamas and its government.

However, some of the activists of these tribes dealt with the occupation, which prompted Hamas to impose its influence on them through various means that led to the failure of the Israeli plan.

It is noted that the return of the Israeli army to occupy Al-Shifa Hospital and the surrounding area came after the success of this movement in reaching an understanding with the tribes and UNRWA to guard and organize relief convoys in the north, and then supervise their distribution to the needy through UNRWA centers, which is what turned on the red light for the occupation, so it assassinated the first official. Brigadier General Faiq Al-Mabhouh, Director of Operations at the Police Service in Gaza, is responsible for this work.

Then the occupation soon targeted a gathering of committees formed by tribal elders (who refused to deal with the occupation) to secure the distribution of aid southeast of Gaza City, which led to the martyrdom of more than 20 of them. Despite all this, the tribes still refuse to deal with the occupation, while Hamas shows good control in the social field, despite the continued Israeli targeting of its cadres.

In contrast, attempts emerged within the occupation government to integrate a specific part of the Palestinian Authority, represented by the head of the Palestinian Intelligence Service affiliated with the Ramallah Authority, Majid Faraj, into the post-Hamas equation, as Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant negotiated an agreement with Faraj to form a Palestinian force of 5,000. 7,000 members of Fatah as an alternative nucleus to Hamas to rule Gaza, so that this force will not be part of the security services of the Palestinian Authority, and it is being trained in Jordan by American General Mike Benzel.

However, Netanyahu - supported by his extremist partners Ben Gvir and Smotrich - aborted this plan, which brought matters back to square one for the occupation.

In this context, the dismissed leader of the Fatah movement, Muhammad Dahlan, proposed empowering a technocratic government that does not include Hamas and Fatah. But Israeli Channel 14 reported that there is a plan promoted by Dahlan himself, and it calls for the entry of Arab forces from Jordan, Morocco, and Egypt, with the support of the Arab League, and with Gulf support in the first phase, and includes reconstruction, provided that Saudi Arabia announces an end to the conflict with the occupation, and the abolition of the Palestine Liberation Organization in the event of Plan success.

Regardless of the credibility of this information, and although the occupation welcomes an Arab role, considering that this means weakening or even eliminating the Palestinian entity, the Arab countries as a whole do not seem willing to get involved in Gaza. Because it is not at all sure of the success of the occupation in its mission to eliminate Hamas, nor is it willing to delve into the complexities of the Palestinian issue, which may reflect negatively on it.

Zero equation

Thus, these desperate attempts by the occupation to impose perceptions on the Palestinian people stem mainly from the extremist government’s refusal to recognize any rights for the Palestinian people at all, and the focus on plans that ultimately lead to continued attempts to subjugate them, and the effort to displace them from Gaza and the West Bank by all means, and these are plans that have not gone unnoticed. On the minds of government leaders.

This confirms that the conflict is heading towards a zero-sum equation, ruling out any possibilities for a political settlement or coexistence between the two peoples, which therefore prevents reaching any post-Hamas understandings.

The entity does not want to accept any Palestinian entity, which makes the American plans to settle the conflict unimplementable, even though they are essentially formal and have no real political value.

Even if the occupation government changes, the broad lines agreed upon by the occupation parties generally reject the Palestinian people’s self-determination, including a state on part of their land.

This confirms that the occupation is stuck in the war it is waging against the Palestinians, not only in Gaza, but in the West Bank and Jerusalem as well. It is unable to achieve a significant victory through which it can enter into the post-war plan, and at the same time it rejects any political solution or post-war plan. Even if this plan is only a formality!

However, the most important result is the erosion of the power of this occupation, its loss of its position in the world as a regional power, and the transformation of its image in the minds of the world - which it was keen to show with its cries - from a victim to a bloodthirsty terrorist entity, which is what its friends in America are trying to prevent from happening, to no avail.

The result is that the conflict continues in Gaza, the West Bank, and Jerusalem, and has certain forms in the 1948 territories, and the Gaza battle will be one of its levers, regardless of the form it ends in, or even continues.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.