From right, Akram Imamoglu, Mayor of Istanbul, and Murat Kurum, the Justice and Development Party’s candidate for the presidency of Istanbul (social media sites)

The dispersion of the opposition coalition competing with the Justice and Development Party in Turkey has led to an increase in the latter’s chances in the local elections at the end of this month, especially in the Greater Istanbul Municipality, but that does not mean that its victory in it will be certain, much less comfortable, as there are several factors that complicate the calculations.

Better chances

Despite their local and service nature, municipalities in Turkey are of great importance and are greatly influenced by the political situation in the country, and intense competition rages within them. This is because it is the most important gateway for communicating with citizens and interacting with them, in addition to the fact that the budgets of some of them exceed the budgets of some ministries.

The municipal elections are getting hotter in light of the polarization prevailing in the country in recent years, and the opposition won in the previous elections (2019) some important municipalities, most notably Istanbul and Ankara, in addition to the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, running for presidency again, and his name is being put forward as a possible presidential candidate in the future. .

It cannot be said that the victory of the Justice and Development Party is inevitable, much less easy, especially in Istanbul, because many contexts and factors that have a direct and indirect impact on the result must be considered, especially in Istanbul.

In the peculiarity of Istanbul, in addition to the symbolism of the city and its being the largest municipality in the country, there is a connection between it and the political career of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, where he began his political career that took him to rule the country for more than two continuous decades, which prompted the spread of the slogan: “Whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey.” He also announced a few days ago that the upcoming elections are his last constitutionally, focusing on the importance of restoring the municipality of Istanbul.

With the dispersion of the opposition "Al-Umma" coalition after the presidential and legislative elections last May, as a result of disagreements between its two main parties: the Republican People's Party and the Good Party, the chances of the Justice and Development Party increased in the upcoming elections, as the opposition coalition was the most important reason for its previous victory, but the impression that prevailed was that its path Smooth and easy to fight - especially in Istanbul - is not true.

The ruling party's chances are undoubtedly better in the upcoming elections than the previous ones, due to the disintegration of the opposition coalition, the discord between its pillars, and the other opposition parties presenting candidates who will compete with the candidates of the ruling party and the largest opposition party (the Republican People's Party) alike.

Because the presence of the Justice and Development Party and its popularity throughout the country, as well as in Istanbul, is greater than that of the Republican People, in addition to the Nationalist Movement Party’s support for it, and the Republican People’s Party going through internal disagreements and a stormy general conference in which its president was changed, with consequences that have not yet subsided, the chances of the Justice and Development Party seem better throughout Turkey. .

However, it cannot be said that the victory of the Justice and Development Party is inevitable, much less easy, especially in Istanbul, because many contexts and factors must be considered that have a direct and indirect impact on the outcome, especially in Istanbul.

Complex calculations

Elections in Turkey are far from direct calculations, as many political, economic, and ideological influences interact with them, as well as the system of alliances and candidate personalities. In addition to all of this, in the case of local elections, the influence of regionalism, regions, clans, and candidate personalities becomes clearer.

Although foreign policy usually has little influence in elections, especially local/municipal ones, the war on Gaza has cast its relative weight in the current electoral battle, and has been present in campaigns and clashes between candidates, especially in Istanbul, especially in light of the general impression among many that the government has not It does everything it can to confront the aggression, specifically with regard to trade relations with the occupying state.

Although opinion polls in Turkey have proven on several occasions that they cannot be completely trusted, their results are suitable for reference. The common denominator - valid for measurement - in what has been released so far from opinion polls is that the chances of the current (opposition) mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavaş, are much better than his rival, the Justice and Development candidate, Turgut Altinok, and that the competition for the Greater Istanbul Municipality is between the current president, İmamoğlu, and the Justice and Development candidate, Murat Kurum. Hectic, and there is no significant lead for either of them over the other or talk of one of them being particularly likely to win.

These results seem logical to us in their general context, that is, the advantage of Yavash in Ankara and the convergence of opportunities in Istanbul, despite what was previously detailed regarding alliances. There are two important factors that should be taken into account:

The first: The dissolution of the opposition coalition, and the nomination of some of its parties - and others - as competitors to Akram Imamoglu in Istanbul will not necessarily be fully and directly reflected in the ballot boxes.

Although the Al-Jayyid Party presented its own candidate, its supporters are not fully committed to the orientations of its leadership, and some of them view the elections as a battle with the Justice and Development Party (and not necessarily a battle for their candidate to win), and therefore they will go to support the most prominent competitor to his candidate, i.e. Imamoglu.

Opinion polls conducted so far give the Al-Gayed Party candidate a much lower weight than the party's weight in the last elections, which significantly supports this hypothesis.

Also, the competition of the Peoples’ Democracy and Equality Party, the new name of the “Kurdish” Peoples’ Democratic Party, may not be real, as it did not choose a figure from the front-line leaders, and its electoral campaign is not strong, and it also apparently concluded an agreement with the Republican People in one of the neighborhoods of Istanbul, What suggests the idea is that the candidacy for the Greater Istanbul Municipality may be a sham, and the party can direct its voters to support Imamoglu, as it has tangible influence over them. The idea of ​​withdrawal (practically, not officially) and a public call to vote for Imamoglu remains a possibility, albeit unlikely.

On the other hand, candidates from conservative parties that are weak and/or newly established pose a challenge to the Justice and Development candidate. This is because parties such as Happiness and Welfare are again able to draw from the party’s funds and seize part of its electoral reservoir, as happened in the recent legislative elections.

Especially with the ceiling of these parties being higher than the ceiling of the ruling party regarding the aggression against Gaza and their direct criticism of it and the government, in addition to the economic conditions in general. It goes without saying that the intense competition and close opportunities make every vote important in the next election, which may make the weak presence of these parties a strong influence.

The picture is also the same, and with the election campaigns that, as of this writing, have not shown a distinguished performance by Imamoglu or Corum, the competition remains intense and the chances are very close. This makes the remainder of the election campaign period of prominent importance in winning over the street and attracting hesitant votes capable of deciding the outcome, especially if any of the competitors makes a major mistake or an unfortunate statement that upsets a segment of voters, which means that any mistake is major in the remaining days. The election campaign may be the last and decisive.

In this context, it is important to remember that election campaigns usually serve the AKP candidate more than his competitors, especially when Erdogan himself participates directly in the election campaign. However, the rival candidate - Imamoglu - is the current mayor, which gives him a strong platform and an advantage in the election campaign, which reduces the benefit of the Justice and Development Party.

But that does not eliminate Erdogan's factor in the elections, as he has recently been active in his daily presence on the sidelines of Ramadan iftar events. His statement that it was his “last election” was remarkable, as it was the type of emotional statement that affected his supporters, and he also sought to influence the conservative or opposition group among his former supporters, in addition to trying to reassure the hesitant segment that he would not remain in power.

In conclusion, the upcoming local elections, especially in Istanbul, are far from a battle with a predetermined outcome despite the existing system of alliances that is completely different from the previous elections. The competition will be fierce in Istanbul, the mother of the battles in the upcoming electoral entitlement and the criterion of winning and losing for many.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.