Netanyahu... Earthquakes of support, internally and in the field!

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Al Jazeera)

When the ground shakes under Netanyahu's government, and its most loyal allies demand new elections, and they blame its president, Netanyahu, and say:

It is an obstacle to peace and harms Israel more than it benefits it. This is accompanied by multiple internal crises between its leaders and between politicians and the military, accompanied by failure to achieve the goals of the war, and the inability to develop a vision for the aftermath of the war. This raises questions about the extent of this government’s steadfastness and cohesion, and the future of its aggression. On Gaza, which has taken place so far with unprecedented American political and military cover.

Loss of confidence

There is no doubt that the development of the negative American position on Netanyahu and his government was not the result of the moment, but it developed over the past months that followed the war, starting with Netanyahu’s rejection of the vision of the day after the war, and his refusal to accept a Palestinian state, through his failure to listen to American demands to reduce the targeting of civilians, as it was reported Regarding Biden, he described Netanyahu as a bad man and a foolish man, then he said:

Dealing with Netanyahu has become impossible.

Then the matter developed between the two parties after the dispute intensified over the invasion of Rafah and the handling of the truce negotiations, or ceasefire.

Netanyahu faces another problem with his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, which is due to Netanyahu’s fear of Gallant’s political ambitions, and Netanyahu’s attempt to please his two right-wing partners in the government coalition at his expense.

Also, the occupation army deliberately bombed civilians - who gathered to pick up aid at the Nabulsi roundabout in the northern Gaza Strip.

What led to the martyrdom of more than 100 Palestinians, in what was known as the flour massacre - brought these disputes into another direction, represented by Biden’s belief that Netanyahu is doing more harm to Israel than good. Biden also received the support of the most loyal leader to Israel in the United States of America, who is the head of the Democratic majority in Congress. Chuck Schumer, when he delivered the most painful surprise to Netanyahu by saying:

Israel must correct its course, considering that Netanyahu constitutes an obstacle to peace, and called on the Israelis to hold early elections, a call that was praised by Biden, while the Jewish pressure group J Street considered it an indication of a historic shift for Democrats who care deeply about the future of Israel.

Although the position of AIPAC, the most influential Israeli lobby in the United States, was not clear or sharp towards Netanyahu, these developments indicate the beginning of a destabilization of American support for the Netanyahu government in some war situations, which may affect the amount of unprecedented logistical support that Israel has received. From America until now via the continuous air bridge in which ammunition and weapons were transported.

A senior Israeli official warned that “Israel may lose the war on Gaza if ammunition and legitimacy are not available, saying: Both are running out!”

The Hebrew channel "Kan" quoted an Israeli source as saying that the United States had slowed down the provision of military aid to the entity, while a senior Israeli official told the American channel "ABC" that there was a shortage of 155 mm artillery shells and 120 mm tank shells in the occupation army.

Despite this, it is important to emphasize that these sharp political stances have not yet affected the unlimited American support for the entity, and that the statements of Biden and some American lawmakers are out of concern for the entity and their fear of the way Netanyahu is leading it in the service of his personal interests.

Internal crisis

In parallel with the crisis with the United States, Netanyahu is suffering from a proliferation of internal crises, the most important of which are the disputes with the two members of the War Council, Benny Gantz, the leader of the State Camp party, and Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff, against the backdrop of the management of the war, and the two priorities of liberating prisoners and eliminating Hamas. Both of them believe that liberating the prisoners is a priority in light of the failure to achieve the goal of eliminating Hamas, which can be resumed after the completion of the prisoner deal.

This is while Netanyahu is procrastinating in completing this deal, and is trying to marginalize Gantz’s role in supervising the negotiations with the mediators, which is widening the differences between them.

The differences increased with Gantz’s visit to the United States and his meeting with US Vice President Kamala Harris, which Netanyahu considered a conspiracy to bring him down.

Although Gantz outperformed Netanyahu by twice the votes had the elections been held, the latter may have gained a point in terms of the stability of his far-right alliance through the separation of Gideon Sa'ar, with his right-wing program closest to the right and Netanyahu, from Benny Gantz's party, and his demand for a seat in the war council, thus strengthening Netanyahu's influence there. If Sa'ar agrees to this demand.

Netanyahu also faces another problem with his Defense Minister Yoav Galant, which is due to Netanyahu’s fear of Galant’s political ambitions, and Netanyahu’s attempt to please his two right-wing partners in the government coalition at his expense, as he appointed the head of the Jewish Greatness Movement Ben Gvir as Minister of National Security, while the head of the Religious Zionism Movement appointed Smotrich. The position of Coordinator of Government Activities in the Palestinian Territories and the Civil Administration, depriving it of Gallant’s powers.

He also previously dismissed him from his position in March 2023.

Because of his support for the demonstrations against the judicial amendments, and the participation of many occupation forces in these protests, before retracting his decision and returning him to his position.

The important thing is that these differences continued after October 7, even if both sides tried to hide them, and they reappeared in the context of war decisions and the conduct of battles.

Because Netanyahu fears being prosecuted for corruption, and perhaps also because of the failure on October 7, he seeks to preserve his government coalition, which has a majority of 64 votes in the Knesset, and seeks in his positions to please his extremist partners Ben Gvir and Smotrich, as they had a prominent influence. In Netanyahu’s position on the independent state, as well as the position on the ceasefire negotiations and the prisoners, as they threaten to withdraw from the coalition if an agreement is reached.

It also seems that a new crisis is looming on the horizon, after the Minister of Defense raised the issue of recruiting religious Haredim into the army, and stressed the army’s need for them (they currently enjoy an exception from service according to a law approved by the Knesset), which prompted the chief rabbi of the Sephardim (Eastern Jews), Yitzhak Yosef, to say: : “If the government forces us to conscript, we will all travel outside of Israel.”

Discussing proposed amendments to the conscription law may lead to divisions in the government, at a time when the army stresses its need to increase the duration of compulsory conscription in light of the continuing war in the Gaza Strip.

In addition to this, the escalation of demonstrations demanding the Netanyahu government to complete the prisoner exchange deal, and those demanding the government’s resignation, to include Haifa, Jerusalem, and Tel Aviv, and demonstrators threatening to burn Israel if the government does not go for the prisoner exchange deal.

Despite all this, it does not seem so far that this coalition is at any real risk of collapse, unless Ben Gvir and Smotrich lift the lid on Netanyahu, as Gantz had previously failed to persuade a number of Likud members to resign in order to make Netanyahu lose his majority, paving the way for holding elections or changing the government.

Complex failure

The combination of these crises together, and their continued escalation, is mainly due to the major shock caused by the “Al-Aqsa Flood” in Israeli society, and the Israeli failure that followed the war on Gaza in achieving its declared goals: eliminating Hamas and liberating the prisoners by force.

It became clear that these two goals were not realistic, as it is not possible to eliminate a movement that is rooted in the ground politically and socially, and possesses significant military and security capabilities.

American intelligence testimonies, as well as testimonies from Israeli military experts, confirmed that the occupation forces were unable to eliminate most of Hamas’ military force, and that the movement continues to retain thousands of fighters in the areas that were invaded, while it still maintains all of its fighters in Rafah.

The testimonies also confirmed that the occupation forces were only able to destroy a third of Hamas' tunnels, which were more than 500 km underground, which confirms the continued control and possession of solid power in the Strip.

The movement also demonstrated its ability to restore its civil role on the ground, following the Israeli bulldozing campaign.

The occupation forces were also unable to find an alternative from the tribes to distribute aid or govern the Gaza Strip, while the dispute is still gnawing at the government between Netanyahu and Gallant over benefiting from figures in Fatah, such as the Palestinian intelligence official, to replace Hamas in the territories controlled by the occupation.

The Israeli government also finds itself stuck in its options, in light of its insistence on invading Rafah, even though it did not succeed in its mission in northern and central Gaza, and in Khan Yunis.

The occupation army is suffering from exhaustion and exhaustion of its energy, at a time when Biden insists on finding shelter and relief for about 1.4 million displaced civilians in Rafah before launching any ground attack, which is what the occupation government has failed to do so far, which threatens to exacerbate the dispute with the American administration if he decides to do so. Netanyahu attacking Rafah.

This step will also reinforce the differences with the entire Western world, which supported this war at its beginning, and now demands that it be stopped and that the Palestinians be relieved and saved from the famine they are facing.

In another context, Hamas succeeded in deepening the crisis of the occupation government, when it presented a flexible proposal in the prisoner exchange and ceasefire negotiations, in which it focused on relief demands and allowing civilians to return from southern Gaza to its north, which required the withdrawal of the occupation forces from Al-Rashid and Salah al-Din Streets.

While Washington described the proposal as falling within the framework of the Paris II Agreement, Netanyahu, as usual, entered into maneuvers within his ruling coalition, in an attempt to abort any chance of reaching an agreement, because any temporary ceasefire would pave the way for negotiations for a permanent cessation of the war, which is what Netanyahu is trying to avoid.

However, this time his options are beginning to narrow in the face of the escalation of the dispute with the American administration, as he cannot continue to provoke it until the end, and he will need initiatives and positions that reduce the pressure on him, while balancing the preservation of his ruling coalition and convincing the extremists in it to agree to a ceasefire step, or a truce that leads to... To defuse tension with the Biden administration.

This does not mean that he will go for this agreement, but he will certainly have to deal more seriously with this endeavor, regardless of the extent to which he will respond, and what conditions he may ask for that will be acceptable to America and return the ball to the resistance’s court.

Regardless of the outcome of matters for the occupation government, its relations with the United States and the West, or the outcome of the negotiations, what is certain is that the entity’s status is declining significantly within the Western system, and its civilized image that it has marketed for itself over the past years is eroding, in the face of images of criminality and sadism in killing civilians. Starving them and targeting their hospitals and schools, which embarrasses his allies and puts them before difficult choices and challenges to their values ​​and principles that they promote.

This will have a devastating impact on the entity’s image and its official relations with the West, after it damaged and destroyed its image in front of its fans.

This is in addition to the loss of its strategic value to the West.

Because of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack, which struck the myth of the invincible army and overthrew its theory of deterrence.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.