Paris negotiations... Netanyahu is maneuvering and the field is not helping him

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (agencies)

Positions are still divergent between Hamas, which is focused on a comprehensive ceasefire, the withdrawal of the occupation forces from Gaza, and relief for civilians, and the Netanyahu government, which seeks to release its prisoners, after which it will resume the war on Gaza.

In light of this divergence, two basic rounds of negotiations on the basis of the Paris Principles Document ended without achieving an agreement for the first phase of the document divided into three stages, which was acknowledged by both parties, while US President Joe Biden confirmed that the agreement could no longer be concluded before the deadline. The target is American, which is the holy month of Ramadan.

Here, we are interested in dismantling the positions, whether there is hope for an agreement during or after Ramadan, and its possible form in light of the understanding of the various parties to the equation.

Israeli deception and procrastination

Netanyahu took the initiative to announce a statement issued by the Israeli Mossad, whose chief, David Barnea, leads the Israeli negotiating team, which participated in two meetings in Paris.

The statement said: “At this stage, Hamas is fortifying its position as if it is not interested in a deal, and is seeking to ignite the region during Ramadan.”

Although this announcement does not reflect what happened, it was intended to send a message to the families of the prisoners by placing the blame on Hamas, and to convince the American administration, which is eager to complete the agreement before Ramadan, that Israel did everything in its power to make the agreement a success, and that the one who failed it was Hamas.

The well-known writer Ben Caspit debunked this claim when he wrote in Maariv: “Contrary to the impression created yesterday by the “Mossad statement” published by the Prime Minister’s Office, there is no consensus in the war cabinet on the issue of communications for the kidnapped deal. Moreover, it was heard in the war cabinet Yesterday's war was a direct, unprecedented and brutal attack on the Mossad's statement and on the publication of the narrative that says, "Hamas does not want a deal before Ramadan and has not responded to the Paris proposal, and therefore there is nothing to talk about with it."

He added: “There is a series of lies here.” A high-ranking source familiar with the matter told me yesterday: “They bully families, they lie all the way and present a distorted image.” I asked him what the real picture was? He replied: “A plan for a kidnapping deal was drawn up in Paris.

The delegation returned to the country, and the Prime Minister's brief was that we wait for Hamas' answer.

The Americans and other mediators have meanwhile drawn up an improved scheme.

This was Plan No. 2. The cabinet’s position was that we were not prepared to accept Plan No. 2 until there was an answer to Plan No. 1, meaning that Israel said no.”

This means that it was Israel that became strict and refused to listen to Hamas’ demands and its comments on the Paris Document, which did not meet the aspirations of the Palestinians.

The writer was given access to the amended document sent by the mediators to the Hamas movement after the Paris II meeting. Its most notable defect was that it did not stipulate a ceasefire and the withdrawal of the occupation to the separation line as another stage. It demanded that only women and children be allowed to return to the Gaza Strip, in addition to not clearly stipulating Aid and fuel will enter Gaza in the quantities requested by Hamas, and it is sufficient to ensure that these quantities reach the required peak by the end of the first phase, which extends for 42 days.

In addition, the document presented a prisoner exchange formula on the basis of 10 to 1.

The adoption of Hamas' humanitarian demands in this document constitutes a gain for Hamas by obligating the entity to bring in massive aid after a long period of hardening of the issue, in addition to Netanyahu's desire to reduce pressure on him from the Biden administration.

As for the ceasefire during the first phase, the document stipulated that reconnaissance aircraft would be halted during this period, for a period of only 8 hours, which Hamas rejected.

Because it contradicts the complete ceasefire (truce).

Hamas presented its response to the document when its delegation visited Cairo, and it included an emphasis on the movement’s demands while showing the necessary flexibility in the prisoner equation, and an emphasis on allowing those who wish to return to the north without discrimination, in addition to the demand for a pledge to complete withdrawal and a ceasefire.

This was confirmed by the head of the Hamas movement, Ismail Haniyeh, in a televised speech on Al Jazeera about the controls of the negotiations, which the Netanyahu government has not responded to so far, the most important of which is the ceasefire, while he stressed that if the movement receives a clear position to stop the aggression and the return of the displaced, “we will show flexibility on the issue.” Prisoners,” pointing to the obstacle of continuing the occupation in the Martyrs’ Axis and cutting the Gaza Strip in half.

No agreement before Ramadan

It is clear that the negotiations did not reach the finish line, but they did not reach an agreement within the time limit that the American party sought, which is an important and sensitive framework for the Biden administration in light of the pressures it is exposed to from its electoral base, especially among the youth and the party’s Muslim supporters, who constitute Their votes in some states weigh in on the confrontation with Trump.

Not only that, the reputation of the Biden administration is at stake, with the extremist government continuing to target civilians, and the Netanyahu government heading to invade Rafah and causing massacres that will destroy what remains of Biden’s reputation, as the Ramadan truce is considered sensitive to the feelings of American Muslims.

The other aspect, which is no less important, is the Biden administration’s desire to cool the conflict during the month of Ramadan, so that the continuation of the Israeli aggression, in addition to the starvation campaign against the people of the Gaza Strip, does not lead to provoking the Palestinians in the West Bank, Jerusalem, and the 48, provoking Arabs and Muslims, and motivating Iran and its allies in The region to escalate the conflict, which constitutes a real danger that threatens Washington’s interests in the region, and harms its strategy to withdraw from it in favor of confronting the Chinese threat and dealing efficiently with the Russian-Ukrainian war.

If we return to the high-level demands of the resistance, and the extent of their reasonableness in light of the situation on the ground, the occupation army, as its leaders themselves admit, is facing a fierce war, and says:

His mission on the ground has not been accomplished, and there are combat brigades still operating in Khan Yunis, in addition to the intensification of attacks on the occupation forces in northern Gaza and the city itself.

In addition to the military assessments of US intelligence itself, Hamas's capabilities and tunnels are still operating effectively.

This means that the Hamas political leadership stands on solid ground when it imposes high conditions (while maintaining appropriate flexibility), as Hamas forces were not defeated in the field, while its military leadership still enjoys control and control, in light of the occupation’s failure to kill any of its leaders, or impose Conditions of surrender are imposed on them, or they are forced to agree to deportation outside the country.

Although it is difficult to predict the fate of the negotiations, their outcome will be linked to the balance of power on the ground, which is still not in favor of the occupation, and even encourages the resistance to cling to demands that do not contradict the goals of the “Al-Aqsa Flood.”

Desire to fail

As for the occupation, although it maintains freedom of movement in Gaza, it fails to achieve the goals of the war, while its forces face fatigue and the need to reorganize their ranks, in addition to the American and Western restrictions that prevent rapid entry into Rafah and constitute a pressure factor on Hamas to soften its position in the negotiations. .

Therefore, the hardening factor in the Israeli position does not stem from a force on the ground, but rather due to a political decision by Netanyahu, who supports the continuation of the war without a price, and his submission to pressure from Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who threaten to bring down the government coalition if a ceasefire is reached without eliminating Hamas.

The equation in the field does not seem favorable enough for the occupation to impose high conditions on the resistance, as the equation seems closer to a balance between an army occupying Gaza and an effective resistance that prevents it from achieving its goals, and inflicts heavy losses on it that prevents it from having control over the land on which it stands.

The American position remains incapable of exerting pressure on the Netanyahu government, despite the conviction that the occupation has failed to achieve its goals, and that it is possible to coexist with Hamas, which requires completing a comprehensive deal with it, leading in the end to a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and entering the post-war phase. Which requires implementing the concept of the Palestinian state as a gift presented to Saudi Arabia to convince it to normalize relations with the entity.

Therefore, Washington sees this government as an obstacle to implementing this vision, but it stands unable to bring about a change in its positions.

Continuous negotiations and conflict

The summary of the scene is that the fighting continues on the ground, while negotiations continue without interruption.

As the month of Ramadan enters, the conflict is likely to escalate in the West Bank and Jerusalem, which constitutes a lever for Gaza to continue resistance, which may make the failure to complete a truce agreement before Ramadan more positive than negative, even if it also serves Netanyahu’s hard line in the short term.

The American sea line to transport aid to the Palestinians, despite its shortcomings and considerations that have nothing to do with the interests of the Palestinians, may contribute to alleviating the burden of people’s needs that prompted the resistance to be lenient in some demands in exchange for providing relief and aid to the Palestinians!

The continuation of the conflict, and perhaps its escalation, will keep the occupation forces in northern Palestine in a state of permanent clash with the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance from Lebanon, in addition to continuing to exhaust the Americans in the Red Sea, and all of this is going against what the American administration wanted.

Although it is difficult to predict the fate of the negotiations, their outcome will be linked to the balance of power on the ground, which is still not in favor of the occupation, and even encourages the resistance to cling to demands that do not contradict the goals of the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” and lead to the continuation of the effects of disputes within the entity between the political and military levels, and the escalation of The state of protest by the families of the prisoners who are still disturbing Netanyahu and pressuring him to complete the prisoner deal, especially with the Qassam Brigades continuing to announce the killing of its occupation prisoners;

As a result of the Israeli bombing, it spoke of the killing of about half of its prisoners so far!

Without a doubt, the continued escalation of American pressure, and the entity committing more massacres, as happened in the flour massacre in Gaza, or as a result of the expansion of the aggression, and the announcement of the killing of more prisoners, all of this will increase the pressure on Netanyahu to complete the deal, or face a shock in his government that may affect On his political future, unless he undertakes a new maneuver that keeps him in power.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.