Palestinians carry bags of flour they obtained from an aid truck near an Israeli checkpoint (Reuters)
Almost all of the parties involved in the Palestinian issue (America, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority) agree on the necessity of ending Hamas’ rule in Gaza and getting rid of weapons and the Palestinian resistance, but the difference between them radically revolves around what is known as the day after the war on Gaza. Who will rule Gaza politically?
Who will control Gaza security-wise after the war?
How will this reflect on the Palestinian issue as a whole?
Perceptions of the day after the war on Gaza
The declared American vision for the day after the war on Gaza appears to be based on the idea of returning Gaza to the state it was in before Hamas took control of it with military decisiveness in 2007, to be with the West Bank under the control of the Palestinian Authority, and to work to replicate the West Bank model of security coordination, in a way that preserves Israel's security, and launching a peace process that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state of a special nature, as described by the American side, or unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state with active and influential international parties.
While the Palestinian Authority is working to rehabilitate and renew itself in accordance with American conditions that are trying to put pressure on Israel;
To restore the Palestinian Authority’s administration of the Gaza Strip the day after the war on Gaza;
The resignation of the Palestinian Prime Minister is read in the context of these arrangements.
But the Israeli vision presented by the right-wing government led by Netanyahu is completely different.
The Israeli leadership seeks to maintain the direct Israeli military presence in Gaza to ensure its complete control over Gaza, disarm the resistance, and dismantle the Hamas movement, ensuring that the Palestinian resistance movements are unable to build themselves again, and divide Gaza into three sections with security barriers. It separates each part from the other, and Israeli control of the border between Gaza and Egypt;
To prevent any future weapons smuggling operations to resistance movements.
As for the governance and civil administration of Gaza, the Israeli vision speaks of a new authority in Gaza giving civil rule there to some tribal members whom it describes as linked and close to the Israeli security services, in addition to giving the reconstruction of Gaza to some of its allied Arab countries, and at the same time reshaping Awareness of the “Gazan” community through changing the educational curricula in educational and cultural institutions in the mosques, and seeking help from some Arab models that had a role in combating terrorism, as they described it.
The Israeli side also rejects any step or talk about establishing a Palestinian state with unilateral recognition by the international community.
The government issued a decision approved by the Israeli Knesset, with the approval of 99 members out of 120 members, refusing to deal with any unilateral international recognition of a Palestinian state, in order to maintain the option of bilateral negotiations, which Israel uses as a delaying method to gain time and swallow Palestinian lands in the West Bank and the Jordan Valley.
To end the idea of establishing a Palestinian state and get rid of it.
The Israeli side envisions that some Arab countries will have a hand in preparing and choosing who will rule Gaza, if necessary, by preparing some figures who can perform this role. The Israeli side believes that these countries share with it the goal of overthrowing Hamas’ rule in Gaza, which is part of a project. Overthrowing political Islam, which derived its popular strength and legitimacy from the struggle of the resistance movements in Palestine.
All of this will ultimately lead, according to the right-wing Israeli perception, to the voluntary or soft displacement of the “Gazanian” people to neighboring countries, or to migration to Western countries.
The Arab position or the Arab quintet: (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the Emirates) are in a position consistent with the American administration, whose plan features are based on establishing long-term peace and a road map to establish a Palestinian state.
The Arab plan is based on a ceasefire, the release of the Israeli hostages in Gaza as a result of an agreement between Hamas and the Israeli side, addressing the issue of settlement in the West Bank, which is consuming more than 43% of its territory, which is part of the promised Palestinian state, and establishing a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem. Providing security guarantees to Israel, normalization with all Arab countries, in addition to the participation of Hamas’s political wing in that political process and its integration into the Palestinian Authority, and the recognition of the Palestinian state by the great powers and international actors, even if unilaterally.
Stressful internal conditions
At a time when the American administration, along with five Arab countries, is adopting the option of recognizing a Palestinian state, annexing Gaza to the West Bank, and returning it to the rule of the Palestinian Authority the day after the war, the American administration is facing intense political pressure ahead of the presidential elections regarding its position in support of the war on Gaza, and the last of these pressures was what was stated Before he burned himself, 25-year-old American pilot Aaron Bushnell said that he would no longer be complicit in supporting genocide, in reference to what Israel is doing in Gaza.
The sensitivity of the American electoral scene, which in the latest opinion poll showed Trump ahead of Biden, and the appearance of the American administration as a partner directly involved in unleashing the Israeli hand in practicing genocide against the Palestinian people, through its political support in the Security Council and unlimited military support, undermines the image that it is trying to The United States must present itself as a guardian of human rights and the protection of the rights of peoples to self-determination.
While the Israeli government faces pressure from the American administration to accept a temporary truce in the Gaza Strip and stop the storming of Rafah, it also faces a state of popular anger and protests by the families of the prisoners in the Gaza Strip, especially after Hamas announced the killing of seven of the prisoners in an Israeli bombing, followed by Pressure from the Israeli opposition, which demanded that the Israeli people besiege the Knesset, topple the government, and call for early elections.
This is accompanied by great economic pressure caused by the war on Gaza.
The daily loss amounts to 267 million dollars, and it is expected that Israel’s losses will reach more than 55 billion dollars by the end of the war on Gaza, in addition to the military losses that the Israeli army is exposed to in this war, and all of this is accompanied by a widening gap between the Israeli government and the United States. The United States threatened to impose sanctions on some Israeli government ministers, including National Security Minister Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Smotrich, and ignored dealing with Prime Minister Netanyahu and dealing with Benny Gantz, the minister in the Israeli war government.
Who will impose his vision?
Even if the United States of America has the upper hand in deciding the fate of the region and imposing what it deems appropriate, it will remain concerned with one thing, which is the calm of the region and the continued preservation of its interests.
Even if the American administration spoke about the necessity of recognizing a Palestinian state, and hinted at unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, its strategic choice - even if it disagreed with the right-wing Israeli government - will remain based on the safety of Israel’s security, the continuation of Israeli superiority in all fields, and non-interference in its internal affairs.
The history of American Democratic administrations says:
The United States does not exert sufficient pressure on Israel in crucial positions, since Oslo until now, in order to impose its vision for a solution, and it retreats in the face of the insistence and stubbornness of the right-wing Israeli administrations that refuse to give anything to the Palestinians.
While it seems that the Arab positions are a reflection of the American position, they advance if the American administration advances, and retreat when the American administration retreats. The papers of the Arab countries that support the American point of view and support it in the solution are not influential or able to impose their vision and pressure the Israeli administration to accept these solutions, so there are no influential papers. It is important for the Arab side that believes in the Palestinian state to pressure it to recognize and establish the Palestinian state.
Let us assume - a questionable assumption - that the American administration was serious and sincere in recognizing the Palestinian state, and was not tactically evasive to manage a sensitive political phase before the elections as this position is read, then the scene will be completely different, and the American-Arab vision and perception will be closer to implementation if the circumstances are present. With the political victory of the current US President Joe Biden in the presidential elections for the second round and his return to rule the White House, the Israeli army’s faltering in achieving complete victory in Gaza, and the continued resistance causing the Israeli army more losses and continuous bleeding, which affects the continuation of the Israeli government and its future, accompanied by positions Coherent and harmonious Arabic pentatonic sound.
But if the Israeli army is able to resolve the battle in Gaza, end Hamas’ military presence, take quiet military control over Gaza, tighten its security grip on it, and dismantle Hamas’ organizational structures, and if Trump, the former president, returns to the White House;
The Israeli vision for the day after the war is what will be implemented, and the extremist right-wing Israeli government will then aspire to go beyond the deal of the century, by going to the complete displacement of the Palestinians, emptying the entire Palestinian territories, swallowing the entire geography, and getting rid of demographics.
The war in Gaza will not end in the near future. The Palestinian resistance is still able to continue, and it is the one that will decide the future of Gaza according to its vision, while the competition in the American elections is becoming more intense every day, and its results will not be decided until the last ballot box is counted.
Therefore, none of the options for the shape of Gaza’s future will be decided until November of this year. The results of the war on the ground, and the results of the American elections, will be the decisive factor in determining who will impose his vision in determining the fate and future of Gaza and the Palestinian issue. This is assuming that the American administration was It is serious and honest in what it proposes regarding the Palestinian state.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.