The Pakistani elections and their repercussions on the military establishment

Former Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan (Al Jazeera)

The Pakistani military establishment may have lost a round of battles with a Pakistani political party, now represented by the Insaf Party, led by Imran Khan, who is now in prison.

It lost tactically, not strategically, and as the establishment has accustomed us throughout the history of Pakistan, which it ruled almost equally with the civilian establishment, that it is like a phoenix that emerges from the ashes of political battles and wars - which have always erupted between the military and the civilian - more powerful.

But it seems that this battle is not like previous battles, as the internal circumstances and circumstances of Pakistan are no longer what they were, in addition to the regional conditions surrounding Pakistan, which displaced ancient dynastic political parties, such as: the Gandhi family in India, and the Bandarika family in Sri Lanka, which is often an important factor in the impact. And the effect is that, given the region's intertwined historical relationships with one another, its political legacy is close together after having been ruled by a single British empire for decades.

Others attribute this strong return of Imran Khan to the deteriorating economic reality that has befallen Pakistan after his removal from unprecedented inflation, in addition to a significant rise in prices.

The dynasties ally themselves

Despite all the restrictions and harassment that Imran Khan's party was subjected to, it was the largest parliamentary group to win seats in the National Assembly, with the number of seats reaching about 100 out of 266 seats. The Muslim League party led by Nawaz Sharif came in second place, winning 63 seats. While the Pakistan People's Party, led by Asif Zardari and his son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, won only 50 seats.

Today, the dynasties in Pakistan are allied, represented by the Sharif and Bhutto dynasties. They have ruled Pakistan in what resembles a revolving door policy. They are allied together to lead the next government led by Nawaz Sharif. Their alliance comes in a signal they have picked up that dangers threaten them both after the emergence of the Insaf Party. Led by the rising, stronger Imran Khan, who outperformed them in the recent elections.

On the other hand, it has become a threat not only to the military establishment, but also to dynastic parties whose political life has ranged between tension with the military and harmony with them, but in the end they remain committed to a minimum level of the political game regulated in the country, where the military plays a major role in it, either directly through coups. Military, or through other tools through the institution of the president, or the institution of the judiciary, according to the cooperation and harmony of one of them with him.

It seems that the nature of the next Pakistani government will be burdened, firstly, by the weakness of the popular mandate granted to it, as long as the largest Pakistani parliamentary groups that won the elections sit in the opposition, in addition to the four local governments conflicting over more than one political party.

The government of Punjab, the most important of the Pakistani provinces, will go to the Muslim League and the People’s Party, and the government will be led as decided by Maryam Nawaz Sharif, the latter’s daughter. However, this government will face fierce opposition as the number of Imran Khan’s seats in the Punjab Parliament reaches 114 seats, while Nawaz Sharif's seat tally is 138, a slim margin that would leave any Punjabi government feeling weak against the opposition.

The same thing will happen to other regional governments contested between the winning parties, which places the central government captive and hostage to the blackmails of the ruling political parties in the peripheries.

Khan and the danger to the military and the dynasties

The Insaf Party, led by Imran Khan, has proven that every time it is forced to return to the people to obtain its mandate, it increases and doubles the charge of its mandate even stronger than it was before. Despite the short history of the party, it was able to defeat two major Pakistani parties that dominated the political arena for decades. With them, he defeated the military establishment, and even challenged it forcefully, and damaged its reputation when his activists and followers attacked it for the first time, burning some of its headquarters.

The party's leader, Imran Khan, who is currently imprisoned, dared to forcefully attack the army commander, General Asim Munir, and the military.

As a result of their interference in internal politics, which is an unprecedented tradition in the history of the relationship between the political and the military in Pakistan.

After Imran Khan was removed from power under American pressure - as Khan himself announced this in April 2022 - weeks later, he was forced to run in by-elections to compete for 20 seats. The result was shocking to his rivals and to the military, as he won 15 seats out of 20. Which at that time constituted an indication to the forces opposing him that he was a force to be reckoned with, and that his popularity was rising and growing.

While the military establishment or the political parties opposing it did not recover from the shock, competitive by-elections were also held for seven seats in October 2023, and the party won six of them, surprising opponents and even the most pessimistic with its defeat.

But the recent February 8 elections constituted the most significant shock, not only to the opposition parties, but also to the military, who were betting on a greater victory for Nawaz Sharif, who had been sponsored by the military establishment since the days of Zia al-Haq in 1977, when the latter presented him as Minister of Finance of the Punjab government, despite periods of clashes and confrontation. With Pervez Musharraf, but the bet was not right after Imran Khan led the main parties in winning a larger number of parliamentary seats.

This strong appearance of Imran Khan - despite the charges against which he was convicted, and who is currently imprisoned - constituted a real shock to the military before other political forces, and here some wonder about the secret of this strong and rapid return of Khan, while some attribute it to his fierce and extremist stance against the military, and their challenge to him, which is... What pleases the younger generation and Generation Z, as more than 22 million voters entered the last elections, compared to the 2018 elections, which brought him to power, before he was removed from it in April 2022.

It is known that the main segment that the party relies on in the elections is the youth segment, while others attribute this strong return of Imran Khan to the deteriorating economic reality that befell Pakistan after his isolation from unprecedented inflation, in addition to a significant rise in prices.

The internal threat that Khan poses to these two powers has exceeded the external threat with Imran Khan’s letter to the International Monetary Fund, which is now heading to support the Pakistani government with a loan amounting to $1.2 billion, in order to extricate Pakistan from the stifling economic crisis it is going through.

Delegation ball in politicians' nets

The ball of popular mandate that the Pakistani voter has thrown into the net of political parties today depends on the politicians to deal well with the political event and cooperate with each other, to block the way for the military, who have always interfered in politics through the cracks and fissures that appear in the wall of Pakistani politics, and their manifestations represented by the parties. .

Pakistani popular segments today recall what happened in 2008, when Pakistani political parties forced Pervez Musharraf to accept the election results. The two main parties: the “People’s Party” and the “League” Party, formed an alliance that they announced in the town of Murree near Islamabad, which enabled the “Party.” The People's Party was able to establish a government that completed its term for the first time in the history of Pakistan, and this would not have been possible without the positive interaction of the Muslim League Party led by Nawaz Sharif, which is what the People's Party is responding to today by forming an alliance to form a government without Imran Khan.

This alliance that was formed today, consisting of the Muslim League, the Pakistani People's Party, and other small parties, led to Nawaz Sharif being authorized to form a government, where he will be sworn in this March, making him the twenty-fourth prime minister in the history of Pakistan, in addition to He will be prime minister for the fourth time in his history and the history of Pakistan.

The first and last capital of military interference in Pakistani politics are the politicians themselves. Either they agree on the rules of their own political game and adhere to them, so that the country is protected from military interference, or they will tolerate any military interference in Pakistani political affairs.

The Pakistani voter - especially after Imran Khan challenged this institution - will hold the politicians themselves responsible for the military intervention, who did not preserve his electoral mandate, after they were unable for decades to come up with a formula of cooperation and coordination among themselves.

Here, many raise a legitimate question: Why do the leaders of political parties flee outside Pakistan once their terms of rule end? This has been repeated with the leaders of the “People’s Party” and the “League” Party, the most recent of which is the return of Nawaz Sharif from self-imposed exile in London, unlike the generals and officers who remain in prison. They do not leave Pakistan, which strengthens the conviction of the Pakistani voter that his politicians are men of government and not men of politics and state, so that they remain with their people, even if they leave or are removed from power, and many here recall the example of the Russian Alexei Navalani, who preferred to remain in his country - and he died in it - than to leave it. .

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.