General Mohamed Idriss Deby, leader of Chad's Transitional Military Council (TMC), delivering a message at the presidential palace in N'Djamena (French)

Finally, and as expected, the head of the “military” transitional council in Chad, Mohamed Idriss Deby, announced his candidacy for the country’s presidential elections scheduled for next May.

As usual, the military justified his candidacy by his success in preventing the country from sliding into chaos after the death of his father in 2021, who ruled the country with an iron hand for 31 years.

Déby Jr. did not forget to give a "democratic" touch to his candidacy as a response to the request of his party, the National Movement for Salvation, which leads a coalition of 220 parties called the Coalition for a United Chad, which asked him to run last January.

As long as the "next" president enjoys the support of 220 parties, there is no need to hold elections, which will be mostly "formal" and the culmination of the "coup putschists'" control over the country's joints.

This expectation was not explicitly hidden by Mohamed Amin Bada, Secretary-General of the ruling coalition, saying:

The president "will not need to campaign because the 221 political parties united in a coalition for a united Chad will already receive 65% of the votes."

Masra declared almost publicly his support for the new constitution, even though he was a staunch opponent of the regime, and presented himself as the third way between the regime and the opposition.

Thus, the curtain will be drawn on the coup carried out by Déby Jr. in April 2021 after the mysterious death of his father, before announcing the result of his victory in a sixth round of elections lasting six years, and in clear violation of the Constitution, which stipulates that the President of the National Assembly, “Parliament,” shall assume power for a transitional period, until... Elections were held, but Déby and his military clique suspended the constitution, dissolved parliament, and formed a transitional council to rule the country for 18 months, after which elections would be held.

Doha also witnessed a national dialogue before the end of this period, and among the issues up for discussion was the non-candidacy of members of the transitional “military” council in the elections, and the restructuring of the army, so that it would not be limited to the “Zaghawa” minority, from which Déby, son and father, descend. However, he was met with This order was rejected by the Council members, which indicated a hidden intention to remain in power and run in the elections.

This was rejected by the opposition at the time, which led a popular movement - in October 2022 after the expiry of the Council’s “18-month” deadline for handing over power - led by Najah Masra, the current Prime Minister, and head of the Transformateurs Party.

These confrontations - which broke out mainly in the opposition stronghold in the south, which suffers from marginalization in favor of the north, and in the rest of the country - resulted in the killing of 128 people and the wounding of 518 others, according to the report of the National Human Rights Committee as a result of the brutal treatment of the security forces and the army with them. The committee at that time put forward several Questions for the government, including: Why did it not open a judicial investigation into human rights violations? It also demanded that the perpetrators be tried.

Why announce the candidacy now?

Deby's announcement of her candidacy comes after preparing the political situation in the country through a set of measures:

It came shortly after the referendum that the country witnessed at the end of last year, and aims “ostensibly” to return to the constitutional system and resolve the political crisis.

The referendum was opposed by the opposition forces as it would dedicate Déby’s candidacy for the elections, so the Transitional Council worked to mobilize a “yes” vote in the referendum.

He also worked to disperse the opposition forces by co-opting some of their symbols, most notably Najah Masra, who returned from exile after the events of October 2022, and in accordance with the Kinshasa Agreement of October 2023, and after Masra agreed to issue a general amnesty and not hold him accountable. All those involved in the violence that occurred at that time: “the police and the army.”

Masra also semi-publicly declared his support for the new constitution, even though he was a staunch opponent of the regime, and presented himself as the third way between the regime and the opposition, as he said:

This constitution is not the best, but it represents progress, prompting some of his opponents to remind him that he personally led the 2022 campaign to prevent transitional leaders from standing at the ballot box.

On the other hand, the announcement of the candidacy came after the formation of a new government entrusted to Masra early this year as a kind of reward for him, instead of the government of Saleh Kebzabu, the National Union for Democracy and Renewal, which he expected to be reappointed to his position.

Because he led the "Yes" camp during the constitutional referendum.

But it seems that Déby sees in the interest of the “former opponent” of his father, a powerful figure in the government, and in the south as well, which might push him to run in the upcoming presidential elections, so he sought to get rid of him through another prominent figure from the south as well, who played an important role in reaching the Kinshasa agreement. , as Masra signed it on behalf of all the opposition forces that considered him not to represent them, and that agreement and non-existence are the same.

Massra, who is also an economist and president of the Transformateurs company, has good relations with France and the United States, as well as the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), which played an important role in reaching the Kinshasa Agreement.

Getting rid of Yahya Dilo Jarro - his cousin, the prominent opposition figure and head of the Socialist Party Without Borders, the head of the Popular Defense Forces, and a potential presidential candidate, who is from the “Zaghawa” tribe, the same tribe as the president - after the authorities charged him and members of his party with attacking the Internal Security Agency and with incitement. For the attack on the president of the court, he was liquidated by security forces after the attack on his party headquarters.

This scenario was repeated with Delo in 2021 after he intended to run in the elections against Deby Sr., when he was then subjected to an assassination attempt following the storming of his house by members of the Rapid Intervention Forces.

Under the pretext that he refused to comply with judicial orders, the storming resulted in the death of his mother and the wounding of a number of his family members.

Delo was one of the most prominent opponents in the events of October 2022. He also rejected the Kinshasa Agreement and the amnesty issued for the police and army forces, as he commented on it at the time by saying: “After reading the agreement, I feel sorry that a political party allows itself to speak instead of the victims and all parties.” "This agreement, which exonerates the perpetrators of the oppression of October 20, 2022, only binds its signatories, and we will continue the struggle until justice is achieved for all victims and democracy is established."

He was also one of the most vocal opponents of the recent constitutional referendum, and his fame increased after the regime succeeded in winning Masra to its side.

Debbie Jr. and French support

Like his father, Déby Jr. enjoys great French support, which was clearly evident with the coup that the son carried out after his father’s departure three years ago, as Paris accepted the matter while rejecting the coup in Mali.

Paris has relied heavily on Chad since Operation Barkhane, which it led against armed groups in the region. The capital, N'Djamena, was the headquarters of these forces, where there is a French base. In addition, Chad is a member of the G-5 Sahel group, which is facing difficulties after the withdrawal. Mali, then Niger and more recently Burkina Faso.

Consequently, only Chad and Mauritania remained, and Chad played a role in implementing the French agenda in the neighboring countries “Sudan, Libya”, in addition to its contribution to the third largest military force in the “United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali” (MINUSMA), which The Security Council ended its mandate last June.

Therefore, France will not easily neglect its strong ally in the region, such as Idriss Deby, especially since the opposition forces indicate a desire to get rid of this French influence and search for other alternatives, and Russia may be one of these alternatives, and we may remember the rise of the demonstrators in May 2022. By burning the French flag and raising the Russian flag;

In protest against French support for the military junta.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the announcement of Déby’s candidacy for the presidency passed without international uproar, despite the previous international trend being to reject the candidacy of any member of the military junta in the elections, and “traditional” statements will come out from Western capitals demanding the necessity of democratic reform and respect for human rights.

Let the country remain once again under military control in a “democratic” guise, and let Chad open the door to repeating this model in Gabon, Niger, and Burkina Faso, which witnessed successive military coups during the recent period.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.