The American press is clear and unanimous: the chances of "Anatomy of a Fall" of leaving Los Angeles on Sunday March 10 with the Oscar for best film, 13 years after the triumph of the film "The Artist", are close to zero.
Despite its critical and public success and an intense seduction operation carried out by the film team among American professionals, the march seems too high this year in the face of "Oppenheimer" by Christopher Nolan, a biopic which retraces the destiny of the father of the bomb atomic.
“Christopher Nolan's historical epic seems most likely to light the collective fuse of Oscar voters,” Entertainment Weekly predicts.
"Let's be real: The race for best picture is locked for 'Oppenheimer,' confirms the New York Times. "Christopher Nolan gave Oscar voters an IMAX version of their favorite genre - the biopic about the great men of history - and after the film grossed nearly a billion dollars worldwide, its path to the Oscar is clear."
"The question is not whether 'Oppenheimer' will win the Oscar on Sunday. The question is whether director Christopher Nolan will need [...] a Brinks truck to bring back all his golden treasures at home", laughs the daily USA Today.
With rave reviews and a top-notch cast, the film should indeed crown Christopher Nolan as best director, Cillian Murphy as best actor and Robert Downey Jr as best supporting actor.
It is also favorite in many technical categories: editing, photography, sound and soundtrack for Swedish composer Ludwig Göransson.
“The Universal Pictures biopic could even equal the record set by West Side Story in 1961, which won ten awards, the second most in the history” of the Oscars, Variety anticipates, the record of 11 statuettes being held by three feature films: Ben Hur, Titanic and Lord of the Rings.
“Oppenheimer indeed ticks all the boxes of the film that Hollywood likes to prioritize,” deciphers Nolwenn Mingant, lecturer in American Civilization at the University of Nantes and specialist in American cinema.
“It’s a scientific biopic, a serious film which fits perfectly into American cinematic culture. It is therefore very readable for voters compared to ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ which represents European arthouse cinema with a complex and ambiguous narrative.
"The film 'Parasite' is an anomaly"
In an article from the Hollywood Reporter, statistician Ben Zauzmer gives Justine Triet's legal thriller only a 3.4% chance of winning the Oscar for best film.
The author of the book "Oscarmetrics" relies on a clever calculation combining several data: the previous awards obtained by the film, its nominations in other categories or even their rating with bookmakers.
Last year, Ben Zauzmer was right in eleven out of twelve categories.
.@BensOscarMath predicts #Oppenheimer has a 78.4% chance of winning best picture at the #Oscars https://t.co/aq1iAc64dK pic.twitter.com/m1smMEfjMm
— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) March 6, 2024
The more awards a film receives in recent months, the higher its chances of finishing first at the Oscars.
After having won almost everything at the Baftas, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards, the Golden Globes and the Producers Guild of America Awards (PGA Award), “Oppenheimer” should logically obtain the favors of some 9,375 members of the Academy having the right to vote.
Faced with such adversity, winning the last Palme d'Or at Cannes would represent an unprecedented feat for a non-English-speaking film, even if around 40% of the dialogue is in English.
“The South Korean film 'Parasite', which is the only non-English film to have won the Oscar in 2020, is an anomaly,” says Nolwenn Mingant.
“There was public enthusiasm and the Academy undoubtedly wanted to be open and recognize this very strong internationalization of the cinema sector that we have been observing since the 2000s, but the cultural foundations of Hollywood remain stronger” .
But all is not lost for “Anatomy of a Fall”, a clinical story about the collapse of a couple where a writer, played by Sandra Hüller, finds herself accused of the murder of her husband.
“We should not underestimate Sandra Hüller (...), she is the outsider” for the Oscar for best actress, an anonymous voter assures AFP.
The German actress therefore has serious assets to play the spoilsport in the announced duel between Emma Stone, who plays a Frankenstein character in "Poor Creatures", and Lily Gladstone, star of "Killers of the Flower Moon", who could become the first Native American actress to win this award thanks to Martin Scorsese's historical thriller.
Pink dress code
On the other hand, if Justine Triet's film leaves empty-handed, the controversy over the choice of France's representative in the best foreign film category could gain new vigor.
In September, French cinema authorities rejected "Anatomy of a Fall" in favor of Tran Anh Hung's feature film, "The Passion of Dodin-Bouffant", which was ultimately not selected by the Academy of Films. Oscars.
See also “The passion of Dodin Bouffant”: love and gastronomy according to Juliette Binoche
In this category, "The Area of Interest", Jonathan Glazer's off-camera film about the daily life of a Nazi family, whose house adjoins the Auschwitz extermination camp, is a favorite unless " The Snow Circle", a story of survival in the Andes, does not come as a surprise.
Finally, the ceremony will necessarily be tinged with pink to celebrate the “Barbie” summer phenomenon.
Nominated in eight categories, Greta Gerwig's feminist satire should be content with secondary awards: its director and the interpreter of the peroxide doll, Margot Robbie, were snubbed.
For the event, pop star Billie Eilish will sing "What Was I Made For?", the flagship title she composed for "Barbie", favorite for the Oscar for best song.
Presented by comedian Jimmy Kemmel, this highly glamorous show should take on a more serious tone, with the announced victory of "20 days in Mariupol", a story of the atrocities committed by the Russian army during the invasion of Ukraine, in the best documentary category.
On the animation side, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” remains one step ahead of “The Boy and the Heron”, the latest from Japanese master Hayao Miyazaki.
With AFP
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