Europe 1 with AFP 11:52 a.m., March 9, 2024

Since its triumph in theaters, “Oppenheimer” has set off a chain reaction which only seems to be able to lead to its coronation on Sunday at the Oscars.

With 13 nominations, Christopher Nolan's portrait of the father of the atomic bomb is a huge favorite for the best film statuette and a host of other awards at the ceremony.

Will Oppenheimer make Oscar history?

Who will win the race for best actress?

And could Martin Scorsese leave empty-handed?

Here are the things to watch for at the 96th Academy Awards, according to

Variety

magazine columnist Clayton Davis.

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Record for “Oppenheimer”?

With 13 nominations, the portrait of the father of the atomic bomb is sure to win several Oscars.

But how much exactly?

Even with eight, a “very conservative” forecast according to Mr. Davis, the film would become the most awarded since

Slumdog Millionaire

in 2009. The record of eleven statuettes seems unattainable.

But obtaining ten awards is within his reach, especially if he wins the contested categories of best actor and best adaptation.

It would thus equal

West Side Story

.

If it wins the Oscar for best film as expected, it will establish itself as the third most profitable film - one billion in global box office receipts - to win the supreme award, behind

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the Lord. king

 twenty years ago, and

Titanic

.

Seeing the actors of such a commercial success, Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr, each win an Oscar would also be a first.

The “Barbie” wave

Even though he may only walk away with two secondary Oscars,

Barbie

should be everywhere during the ceremony.

Singer Billie Eilish and actor Ryan Gosling will put on the show, performing songs from the film on stage.

And comedian Jimmy Kimmel, who hosts the ceremony, probably has plenty of rose-tinted jokes planned.

Especially since there is no shortage of material: the feminist satire may have dominated the global box office last year, but its director Greta Gerwig and star Margot Robbie were not nominated for the Oscars, which caused controversy .

"It's going to be a Barbie wave," Mr. Davis predicts.

“It might annoy some people.”

Suspense among the actresses

The race for the Oscar for best actress is probably the closest of the evening: Lily Gladstone (

Killers of the Flower Moon

) and Emma Stone (

Poor Creatures

) are neck and neck.

The former could become the first Native American actress to win the statuette, thanks to Martin Scorsese's historical thriller about the silent massacre of the Osage tribe in the 1920s, despoiled by Americans coveting their oil-rich land.

The second delivers a delightful and liberating performance in the baroque tale by Greek Yorgos Lanthimos, and is aiming for a second Oscar, after

La La Land

.

But she could suffer from Sandra Hüller's popularity with European voters, won over by

Anatomy of a Fall

.

“That’s where the math comes in,” Mr. Davis observes.

Scorsese's misfortunes

At 81, after an Oscar for best director, Martin Scorsese has nothing left to prove.

But if Lily Gladstone fails among actresses,

Killers of the Flower Moon

 could become the third film by the great master to leave empty-handed despite 10 nominations.

Scorsese has already experienced this scenario with

The Irishman

and

Gangs of New York

.

“It’s clearly a rich man’s problem to have 30 Oscar nominations and not win any,” smiles Mr. Davis.

“But it’s a lot.”

The Hollywood elite to open envelopes

As usual, it's Hollywood's elite who will open the envelopes and award the prizes on stage.

For the four categories of actors, the organization chose to invite several former winners to play this role on stage, as during the 2009 edition. Enough to see Jennifer Lawrence praise Emma Stone, or Matthew McConaughey sing the praises of Paul Giamatti.

This formula allows for “a nice connection and human interaction”, according to the organizer of the ceremony, Raj Kapoor.

For his part, Mr. Davis is looking forward to seeing

West Side Story

star Rita Moreno present the best supporting actress category, where America Ferrera is nominated for

Barbie

.

This would probably be an opportunity to introduce the actress with

America, America

, in the form of a nod to the flagship song of the legendary musical.

“I’m going to cry,” says the columnist.

“I can’t wait any longer.”