A picture of former Prime Minister Imran Khan appears among Pakistani flags (Reuters)
The results of the Pakistani elections constituted a real shock to many political, military, and even media circles. Despite all the obstacles that were erected for the Pakistani “Insaf” Party, led by Imran Khan, they did not succeed in defeating the party, which returned to the Pakistani political equation stronger than it was before, challenging the military. And the political parties, which withheld confidence in him in a parliamentary session in April 2022.
The fragmentation and dispersion of the popular mandate that was distributed among political parties in these elections deprived any party of forming the central government, and even the governments of the four regions on its own, which will lead to political and governance chaos. Because it will force the political parties to ally with each other, and perhaps to ally with their opponents, to form coalition governments, which will subject them to partisan and political blackmail, with the price being paid by the people and the entire Pakistani political scene, which leaves us facing a difficult political equation, in light of a deteriorating economic reality and a budget vacuum. The country, with the decline of the Pakistani rupee, and the debt interest incurred annually by the country.
Nawaz Sharif, 74 years old and returning from his exile in London, announced in his victory speech - as his followers described it - his intention to form a government in Pakistan, offering all political parties to support him in this, with the exception of Imran Khan’s majority party.
The political scene after the election results
The delay in announcing the results of the Pakistani elections was a shock internally and externally, and the Election Commission asked the parties to stop announcing the results, which sparked controversy and disagreement about the reasons behind this demand, especially since it came many hours after the delay in announcing the results, which was attributed to logistical and communication reasons, which are Reasons that are not convincing to the Pakistani street, as most of the accusations point to efforts to rig the elections in favor of Nawaz Sharif, in order to prevent Imran Khan, the opponent of the military establishment, from returning to power. This is the same Imran Khan who was accused in 2018 of coming to power through the military rigging the elections in his favor.
This shock came with the decline in the confidence of the Pakistani street in the Election Commission, as it ranked eighth among the Pakistani institutions trusted by the Pakistani people in the street, as the Pakistani army ranked first, while the Supreme Court ranked second, and as for the political parties, they were ranked third, which It reinforced the Pakistani street's suspicions of everything issued by the Election Commission of Pakistan, given its lack of confidence in it.
It is clear that the revolving door policy is what brings together Pakistani politicians. Yesterday, Nawaz Sharif was called the spoiled son of the military establishment, since the late President Zia ul-Haq chose him in the 1970s as Finance Minister of the Punjab government, and then supported him in several elections, which enabled him to form three Pakistani governments. This is something that all political parties were unable to do, let alone someone like Nawaz Sharif, who is preparing today to form the fourth government after imprisonment and voluntary political exile, which extended for 14 years in London.
The political scene today is that Imran Khan’s party won 94 seats and Nawaz Sharif’s party won 63 seats, while the Pakistan People’s Party, which was led for decades by the Bhutto family and is today led by Asif Ali Zardari, Benazir Bhutto’s husband, and her son Bilawal Bhutto, won 50 seats. As for the Migrant Movement Racist nationalism in the province of Sindh, with its capital, Karachi, won 14 seats, and the Pakistani Islamic parties declined. The Association of Islamic Scholars, led by Maulana Fazlur Rahman, only won two seats, while the Pakistani Islamic Group did not win even a single seat.
Nawaz Sharif, 74 years old and returning from his exile in London, announced in his victory speech - as his followers described it - his intention to form a government in Pakistan, offering all political parties to support him in doing so, with the exception of Imran Khan’s party, which has the majority, and it appears that consultations have already begun between Sharif and the party. The Pakistani people for this purpose, and it is a tactic - apparently - supported by the army, but the real challenge is the steadfastness of such a coalition government in the face of the hurricanes and political blackmails that Pakistani political equations are known for in such circumstances.
Imran Khan and the shock of the strong return
All the measures that accompanied the process before, during and after the elections failed to exclude the strongest Pakistani political party, and in accordance with the theory of the British philosopher of history Arnold Toynbee - which is the theory of challenge - the Pakistani street, with every pressure exerted on Imran Khan and his party, escalates the street, especially the youth group 18- 35 years of their challenge to the military by rallying around Imran Khan, who was imprisoned on three charges and sentences brought against him in just a week, sentencing him to three decades in prison. One of the sentences was even issued about two days before voters went to the polls, sending messages of intimidation and pressure to his supporters.
With Imran Khan leading the list of winners on the lists of independents, as he did not allow his party to participate under the party’s banner, and even the party’s slogan in the election campaign, which is the cricket stick, was withdrawn, but despite all this, all political parties advanced, which put the Pakistani political equation in a dilemma. It is true, as it is not possible to form a government without him, as his opposition will be strong and influential on any future government, thus making the winning candidates in the elections, the so-called independents who support the PTI, a real egg.
But Nawaz Sharif faced this scene by resorting to appealing to other parties to form coalition governments, which certainly means political chaos, which will negatively reflect on the performance of the Pakistani economy, in addition to the risks of future military interventions in government affairs, which would later lead to early elections, as there is dispersion in the mandate. It is not limited to the formation of the central federal government in Islamabad, but will extend to the local governments in the four provinces of Sindh, the largest province in Pakistan, where the Muslim League party led by Sharif needs other parties to advance in the results there, and the same applies to Imran Khan’s party in the Pakhtunkhwa province, whose capital is Peshawar. As well as Sharif’s need to support other forces in the Balochistan region, just as the People’s Party needs allies in forming a local government in the Sindh province with Karachi as its capital.
Goodbye to traditional parties
Perhaps what is most distinctive about these elections is the decline of the traditional Pakistani political parties that have characterized the scene for more than half a century. Perhaps this decline began in India, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and other regions that were possessions of the British Empire.
It has become common practice that what happens in one region will certainly be reflected in the other region, since the decline of the Indian Congress Party led by the Gandhi family and the advancement of the extremist Hindu Janata Party, and experts read the event in a regional context far beyond the country in which it occurred, which will be reflected in other traditional parties, until we touched on it. In an unusual Pakistani political precedent, Sharif called on his traditional opponent, the People’s Party, to form a coalition government, to confront a party that is considered newborn - compared to the history of their two ancient parties - which is the Insaf Party, which has not been in existence for a tenth of the history of the two traditional parties.
This initiative of Nawaz Sharif reflects the strength and momentum enjoyed by Imran Khan and his party, reinforced by the fears of the two main parties about the emerging party rising like a rocket, and therefore they found the situation necessary for their alliance to confront it, which means that in the next elections they will be far from the Pakistani political equation, just as the Congress Party left. The Indian nationalist is part of the Indian political equation.
A Gallup poll last month showed that Imran Khan's popularity reached 57% compared to other Pakistani political figures, and in light of economic inflation reaching 30%, this would make the formation of any Pakistani government without Imran Khan and his party a government that lacks credibility, as a result of the absence of a sufficient popular mandate. For it, especially the youth segment that forms the basis, core and core of the Insaf Party led by Imran Khan, who is watching all of this from his prison cell.
The army and the bet
This turbulent political and economic reality has made some experts wonder whether the Pakistani army has regretted the coup against Imran Khan the day it overthrew him by pushing some of its tools to cast a vote of no confidence in him in 2022, but the military establishment - which is living in a savior complex for the country, having ruled Pakistan for half its life - While in the other half it exercised its role through the tools of power, namely: the judiciary, political parties, and the media, it was a hybrid coup, as some like to describe it - this institution today relies on Nawaz Sharif; Given that he is one of the businessmen who trust him despite the corruption charges that imprisoned him and removed him from power, he also remains supported by Gulf countries, which can be relied upon to alleviate the dire economic reality, as inflation has recently reached 30%.
However, the coming days will remain important in determining the identity of the next government, and determining its economic and political priorities, with the need to monitor the two important elements of the Pakistani political equation today, namely the army and Imran Khan.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.