People carrying Palestinian banners and flags in a pro-Palestinian march (Anadolu Agency)
Conflicts and wars in general contribute to stimulating opinion polls, and in the recent war on Gaza - as expected, as is the case with most conflicts - American public opinion polls joined the debate about the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, and significant shifts occurred in American public opinion. With each party trying to use this tool to its advantage, perhaps in an unprecedented way!
I dealt with the topic years ago in my book: “The Arab-Israeli Conflict in American Opinion Polls,” issued by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, where I discussed the most prominent issues of the Arab-Israeli conflict in American public opinion polls, and the topics it included, such as the importance of the conflict, initiatives to settle it, its effects, and the most prominent issues. Its stages, peace processes, the role of international parties to resolve the conflict, the interest of American foreign policy, American support for Israel, the image of the parties to the conflict and the trends of sympathy towards each party and the most prominent issues raised in it.
Opinions and results revealed by the study of this extended period of public opinion, which helps us understand Americans’ attitudes to the conflict, past, present, and future! In addition to methodological conclusions on how to deal with this thorny topic, up to these times when opinion polls occupy an important position, in the media arena, communication networks, pressure forces, and politicians, as we will present in this article.
There are basics for understanding American public opinion, and when dealing with them, the matter is deeper than simply focusing on a result that each party uses to its advantage, or without taking into account the background, the general context, or even the wording, arrangement, and method of interpreting the questions, which paved the way - as we see with every result - for the diversity of its use to varying degrees. True or false according to the saying: “One poll, multiple interpretations”!
The results of some polls were in the interest of the Palestinian party, even if some of them divided public opinion on several issues, such as: Jerusalem, establishing a Palestinian state, rejecting the construction of Israeli settlements, and considering Israel the greatest obstacle to achieving peace.
If we return to the general view of the course of American opinion polls in the Arab-Israeli conflict, we will find - whether intentionally or unintentionally - the absence of important and fundamental issues in the conflict that these polls did not address despite their importance, such as: refugees, the separation wall, Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons, and its assassination of Palestinian leaders, And the Jenin camp massacre. Perhaps the most important of them - with what we are talking about here - is the siege and suffering associated with the Gaza Strip. Questions about the Strip are only asked about the outbreak of the military conflict, which has been repeated six times since 2008, when it witnessed the beginning of radical shifts in American public opinion, or groups. To be more precise, as we will see shortly!
This neglect of important issues - condemning the Israeli side or arousing sympathy for the Palestinian side - is consistent with the biased coverage of the various American media outlets of the course of the Arab-Israeli conflict, some of which Naseer Arouri had mentioned in his important book: “America...The Opponent and the Ruler,” such as: highlighting Shining light on martyrdom operations that kill Israeli civilians or soldiers, in exchange for complete obscuration of what Israel is doing in terms of destroying infrastructure and infrastructure, quarantining residents, curfews, administrative arrests, torture, and confiscating Palestinian lands!
Another important general characteristic is that Americans' sympathy was consistently more with Israel, and their tendency to place more blame on the Palestinian side for the start of violence and renewed fighting, and their condemnation of Palestinian operations and describing them as terrorism, with a majority seeing the importance of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict for American foreign policy.
In contrast to these disturbing results, the results of some polls were in the interest of the Palestinian side, even if some of them divided public opinion on several issues, such as: Jerusalem, establishing a Palestinian state, rejecting the construction of Israeli settlements, and considering Israel the greatest obstacle to achieving peace. With the American parties’ equal view of the Arab-Israeli conflict on several issues, such as: the extent of the success of American pressures to achieve peace.
Regarding the methodology of the questions, I found a positive relationship between including the option “I do not have enough information” and “a high percentage of people choosing this option,” such as: establishing a Palestinian state, which has a positive connotation towards the Palestinians, and remains better than answers that condemn them, as The Americans' positive position increases when the question refers to the election issue, such as: dealing with the elected Hamas government. Likewise, there is a direct relationship between the Americans' support and the statement in the question that this is their state's stated opinion and position, such as: support for Israeli withdrawal from the Palestinian territories.
Regarding Gaza before the current crisis, and as I mentioned in previous articles: “Gaza... between the shame of the Americans and the injustice of their government,” and “Reading the results and methodology... Gaza in the American opinion polls,” there appeared to be signs of a shift in public opinion since 2014. It was shown by opinion polls, such as the Pew poll, which showed that the younger groups of Americans - unlike those older than them - tend to sympathize more with the Palestinians, and the Gallup poll in the same year, when 51% of young people between 18-29 considered The year of “Israel’s” actions in the conflict in the Middle East is unjustified! The results highlighted a clear conflict between the stability of the previously mentioned trends and the emergence of new ones.
The Hamas attack in Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7 mobilized many American institutions to carry out a wave of public opinion polls, but they subsided, unfortunately, despite the ensuing Israeli aggression on Gaza that has been ongoing for 133 days until the writing of these lines. These include the University of Maryland and Reuters.
These parties' surveys intensified in the period from October 10 to 24, and their questions focused on the party most to blame for the outbreak of war, the party that enjoys greater sympathy, the extent of the positive or negative view of the two sides of the conflict, the assessment of the role of the United States in the conflict, and what... What it can do, the extent of its support for Israel, President Biden’s approach to dealing with the conflict, the assessment of Israel’s response to the Hamas attack, and the extent of approval of Israeli measures towards Palestinian civilians.
Some results may be a cause for doubt and skepticism, even if they are consistent with the general line of bias of American public opinion in favor of Israel, as stated in the Fox News poll, which was conducted during the two days following the attack, that 68% support the Israelis, compared to 18% who support the Palestinians, This channel is known for adopting neo-conservative positions in the United States, declares its support for Israel and its hostility to the Arabs, and is accused of bias by academics, politicians, and followers of the American media!
The majority of Americans sympathized more with Israel in polls conducted after the Hamas attack. For example, in the Quinnipiac University poll, 61% said they sympathized more with the Israelis, compared to 13% who sympathized more with the Palestinians, and then in the YouGov/The Economist poll, when they said 48% sympathize with the Israelis, 10% sympathize with the Palestinians, and 23% sympathize with both sides.
Later in the YouGov poll, it was found that 36% sympathize more with the Israeli people, 11% sympathize more with the Palestinian people, and 35% sympathize with both parties equally. In the Economist/YouGov poll, 41% sympathize more with Israelis, compared to 13% who sympathize more with Palestinians and 28% who sympathize with both sides almost equally.
University of Maryland-Ipsos poll, the results of which showed a decline in support for Israel from 30.9% in October to 20.5% in November, while support for the Palestinians increased from 9.2% to 12.9%.
In a look at the poll methodology, it seems that the wording of the questions has contributed greatly to producing some results that are consistent with the general line of American bias towards Israel, such as the question about describing Hamas as a terrorist group, in the YouGov poll, with 64% and the Reuters/Ipsos poll, By 80%, or describing its attack as a terrorist attack in a Quinnipiac University poll when asked about the extent of approval of Israel’s response to the attack, 50%!
In contrast, there were results that reflect a clear change in public opinion, such as the decline in the rate of approval of Biden’s performance as President of the United States, in the Gallup poll, to the lowest level since he assumed the presidency, to become only 37% among the total number of voters, and the change in the opinions of young people, such as The percentage of young Democrats, in a University of Maryland poll, who want the United States to stand by the Palestinians increased from 16.2% in October to 23.2% in November, and 58% of young Americans aged 18-24 supported what Hamas did. And consider it justified because of the injustices that befall the Palestinians.
As the first Harvard CAPS-Harris poll showed in November, the percentage rose to 60% in the second poll in December, during which 51% of the same segment said; They believe that the long-term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is to “end Israel and hand it over to Hamas and the Palestinians”!
The shift in public opinion is most evident in the poll conducted by the John Zogby Strategies Center for the Arab American Institute, January 4-5, 2024, which offered to address Americans’ attitudes toward: the Palestinians and Israelis, U.S. policy in this conflict, US military assistance to Israel and a ceasefire.
37% said; They express equal sympathy for both Israelis and Palestinians, and although 30% expressed more sympathy for Israelis, Palestinians enjoy greater support among young voters 18-29 years old, 34% versus 16%, and among people of color, 21% versus 17%. As the war continued, sympathy for the Palestinians increased among certain groups. Among Democrats, 23% versus 17% toward the Israelis, among young Americans 37% versus 27% toward the Israelis, and among people of color 29% versus 13% toward the Israelis!
50% evaluated Biden's policy with the conflict as favoring Israel, but when asked about the policy the Biden administration should take, 42% said; American policy must be balanced between Israeli and Palestinian needs, and in the opinion of 57%, the United States should act as a fair and impartial mediator between Israelis and Palestinians, compared to 26% who said; The United States must always stand with Israel!
These opinions were reflected in the respondents’ positions regarding American military assistance to Israel, with 51% compared to 26% saying; The United States should not provide unrestricted financial and military assistance to the Israeli government if it continues its war in a way that endangers the lives of civilians in Gaza.
51% agreed with Democratic senators who, last December, opposed the Biden administration’s approval of $147.5 million in arms sales to Israel without Congressional approval for the second time since October 7, and 41% agreed that it was time to impose Conditions on military aid to Israel, amounting to $3.8 billion annually, following its military operation in Gaza that killed more than 20,000 people!
51% of respondents tended to support members of Congress who support a ceasefire, compared to 24% who supported members of Congress who oppose calls for a ceasefire!
In the face of the abundance of results, which may seem conflicting, the various parties are deliberately selecting and promoting what supports their convictions, whether they are parties that support the Palestinians or Israel.
In this context, the emergence of some Jewish entities sympathetic to Israel is noted, such as: The Jewish Virtual Library or The Israel Project, which excelled in archiving and publishing the results of polls in a way that shows the support and sympathy of the majority of Americans for Israel, as the Virtual Library did. Recently, by highlighting the 37% percentage in December, higher than its counterpart in the previous two months, who approved of Biden’s approach in dealing with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict!
On the other hand, Arab and Islamic parties did not realize the impact of public opinion polls, whether by highlighting them or inferring them if the results were in favor of the Palestinians, or criticizing them if they were unscientific or in their interest, with the exception of what the American Muslims for Palestine organization did. Muslims for Palestine AMP when it published on its Facebook account the 61% of Americans who demand a ceasefire in a Data for Progress poll, and the 74% who call on the United States to provide humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in a Gallup poll!
In general, these results reveal the necessity of not falling into the trap of the stereotypical image of American society, by viewing it as a homogeneous unit united in its support and bias towards Israel. Although the latter gained a large balance of American popular support during the first week of its aggression, much of this balance It has been eroded by Israel's brutality and barbarism in its aggression against the Gaza Strip, images of which the new, non-Western media contributed to transmitting to the American public, to provoke its humanitarian inclination and desire for peace, especially the group of young people whose positions seemed to be very different from those of their elders!
This war clearly demonstrated the great influence of social media in shifting the attitudes of American youth towards the recent war and even the entire Arab-Israeli conflict, and showed them the other side of the narrative of events that the media had long been diligent in concealing.
This is something that Arab and Islamic media and research bodies, especially within the United States, should not ignore and make better use of, to invest this transformation in educating other sectors and segments of American society, or at least neutralizing them, in the hope that in the long run this will bring about a shift, no matter how slight, in American policy towards Palestine, its people and its cause!
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.