Are the winds of "coups" blowing over Senegal?

Senegalese President Macky Sall (French)

Senegal, located in the far west of Africa, is described as an oasis of democracy in the region, and even on the continent, for two basic considerations: the first is that the country has not witnessed any military coups since its independence from France in the early 1960s, and the second is that it has witnessed processes of peaceful transfer of power, and even the defeat of two of the country’s presidents before... Their rivals were President Abdou Diouf against opposition leader Abdoulaye Wade in the 2000 elections, and the latter's defeat by current President Macky Sall in the 2012 elections. Throughout this period, the elections were not postponed, and they were largely fair.

This democratic wedding was expected to culminate in the presidential elections that were supposed to take place on the twenty-fifth of this February, and for the first time, outgoing President Macky Sall, who amended the constitution in 2016, would not participate in it, so that the president had the right to hold office for two consecutive terms. The duration of each is 5 years.

Although the president announced last July that he would not run for a third term, unlike his two predecessors: Diouf and Wade, his latest decision on February 3 to postpone the elections - in response to an appeal by Karim Wade, son of former President Abdallah, against the decision to exclude him from the nominations he had approved. The Constitutional Council, which is entrusted with deciding on the candidates’ files, and its questioning of the integrity of two judges in the Council - raised many doubts about this decision, especially since Sall did not specify a time period for holding the elections, and this is not the first time that Karim has been excluded, as he was excluded from running. In the 2019 elections against Sall, given that he holds French citizenship, and the elections were not postponed at the time!

It is clear that Sall reluctantly accepted, and responded to pressure from both the street and the opposition, in announcing that he would not run for a third presidential term. Therefore, he must think about alternatives: Will he leave the scene completely? Or will he search for an alternative from the ruling party, which is suffering from division and political decline?

Unconstitutional decision

This decision, issued by Sall, was constitutionally and legally flawed in two respects: The first: It clearly violates the provisions of the Constitution, especially Paragraph (7) of Article (103), which indicates that the duration of the presidential term cannot be modified, and Article (27), which limits the term of each president to only two terms, each of which is 5 years long.

Therefore, he may not extend his term, which is supposed to end on April 2, and he has also violated the authority of the Constitutional Council, which is the body entrusted with deciding on such decisions, even though he resorted to the Council in 2016, to obtain a legal opinion regarding reducing the term of the presidency. From 7 years to only 5 years, as the Council refused, and Sall continued his first term until 2019.

It is true that the president has the right to request consideration of amending the constitution, and to seek Parliament’s opinion in that regard, but the matter must be subject to a referendum if some provisions of the constitution are amended, or the opinion of the Constitutional Council must be sought if there is any objection to holding the elections on time.

Perhaps this is what prompted the Council to issue its decision on Thursday, February 15, to invalidate the decision of both Sall and Parliament, which postponed the elections until next December, and to continue Sall’s rule until they are held.

Reasons for postponing elections

It is clear that Sall reluctantly accepted, and responded to pressure from both the street and the opposition, in announcing that he would not run for a third presidential term. Therefore, he must think about the alternatives: Will he leave the scene completely? Or will he look for an alternative from the ruling party, which is suffering from division and political decline in the 2022 parliamentary elections and the 2023 municipal elections, where the party lost the absolute majority in Parliament for the first time and its number of seats declined from 125. Only 82 seats out of a total of 165 seats, and the main municipalities in the country lost?

Sall announced his support for Prime Minister Amadou Bah, as a presidential candidate for the ruling party in the upcoming elections, despite the fact that he does not have the necessary charisma to run the country, in addition to the decline in economic indicators since he assumed the presidency in 2022.

According to International Monetary Fund data, Senegal's GDP growth rate declined from 5.5% to 4.2% in 2022, and the average inflation rate increased significantly to reach 9.6% in 2022 compared to 2.2 in 2021.

However, his choice of Amadou may have been deliberate, so that Sall could control the reins of affairs from behind the scenes, and so that we would be faced with a repetition of the Russian Putin-Medvedev experience, but in the Senegalese manner.

But it is clear that the process of improving Amadou's mental image requires more time in a country that is fond of democracy and rejects the idea of ​​circumventing it, especially since one of the problems facing Sall and Amadou is their close relationship with France, which suffers from popular reluctance and rejection in West Africa in general. And in Senegal in particular.

Indeed, the idea of ​​turning your back on France was one of the winning cards of Ousmane Sonko, the “currently imprisoned” presidential candidate and head of the “defunct” Pastif party, in the 2019 elections, and it is also one of the cards in the hands of his assistant, Bassero Diomaye Fay, “the current presidential candidate” who is also imprisoned.

These challenges to Amadou do not stop with Sonko and the movement that rejects France, but rather are represented by the presence of other strong competitors. Among them is Khalifa Sall, the former mayor of the capital, Dakar, who was excluded from the 2019 elections after being imprisoned in “politically suspicious” corruption cases for not competing against Sall, who was issued a presidential pardon shortly after the end of the elections.

Thus, Khalifa presents himself as one of the victims of marginalization and exclusion during the Sall era, and he also enjoys the support of the Socialist Party, which ruled the country for 40 years through the two presidents: Léopold Senghor and Abdou Diouf.

Who benefits from postponing the elections?

If Sall may benefit from the postponement, to create conditions for Amadou Bah, there is another beneficiary of this postponement, “perhaps intentionally or not,” which is Karim Wade, who renounced his French citizenship early this year. He is also the author of the famous appeal against the two judges of the Constitutional Council. He supported the president's decision in Parliament, which approved the decision to postpone the elections, to be held next December.

Perhaps here the irony of this rapprochement between Sall and Karim emerges, despite his exclusion of Karim before the parliamentary elections in 2016, as well as the presidential elections in 2019. Could France have a role in this rapprochement after the decline of its influence in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, and therefore it does not want to lose? Dakar, the main capital of its hegemony in the region, which houses the Central Bank of West Africa? Could Karim be the next president of the country with the blessing of both Sall and France?

This might have been possible had it not been for the Constitutional Council's decision confirming Wade's exclusion from candidacy.

He asked the next president or the military?

But assuming that there is no such understanding between Sall and Karim, there is the most dangerous possibility, which is that Sall himself will be the next president by actual force, taking advantage of the state of chaos that has afflicted the country since 2021, until last summer, in which nearly 60 people were killed. Due to the demonstrations led by supporters of Ousmane Sonko after he was “fabricated” with charges and put in prison.

He may have hinted at this possibility in an interview with the French magazine Jeune Afrique last June, saying: “Only the serious threat of destabilizing the country, especially due to the rise of religious extremism, could make me change my mind [about a third term].”

It is true that the man announced shortly afterwards that he would not run for president, but that remains dependent on a state of stability from his point of view. Although the decision of the Constitutional Council puts him in an awkward position, especially since it favors opposition candidates and powerful civil society organizations in the country.

Here the question revolves around the position of the military establishment, and can it stand idly by in the face of this “possible constitutional coup” by the president? Or can it intervene to force him to adhere to the constitution, implement the decision of the Constitutional Council, and hold the elections on time or postpone them for a short period only to give the candidates a chance? To carry out their electoral campaigns, especially in light of the great confidence enjoyed by the people, “85%” of Senegalese who say: “They trust the army, and it is among the highest rates on the continent.” Or is this the most dangerous? May you take over the reins for a longer or shorter period, until the situation stabilizes and elections are held?

The history of the military institution indicates that it is committed to neutrality and non-interference in politics, and that its role is to confront external aggression only, and to achieve internal discipline “deterrence” without carrying out a process of repression in favor of the regime. There is no evidence of this than General Tavarez da Souza’s refusal in 1988 to respond to the president’s request. Abdou Diouf suppressed the demonstrations that took place against him. The general was then accused of trying to organize a coup against the regime and was referred to early retirement.

In the recent events that the country witnessed between March 2021 and June 2023, and at the height of the demonstrations linked to the arrest and subsequent conviction of Ousmane Sonko, the army deployed in the streets; Only for deterrence.

However, the coups that took place in several West African countries: “Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, including neighboring countries: Mauritania, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Guinea” - may arouse the ire of the army to intervene under the pretext of maintaining security and stability. Let the country move out of the circle of “military” coups, and become in the heart of it!

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.